EUROPE.
WE should say, on the whole, that the result of the Algeciras Conference tends towards peace in Europe for the next few years. It will be, no doubt, an. uncertain peace, for it depends to a most unfortunate degree upon the continuance of lives which may not continue. With so many half-mad Anarchists at the disposal of secret committees with an interest in disorder, the boldest insurance office would be loth to guarantee the life of the head of any first-class Governinent except our own, and the safety of that head is often the only guarantee for international order. The passing away of the Austrian Kaiser will, it is admitted, be a. signal for quarrels of race which can hardly be settled without resort to the sword. Too many rich territories of the Hapsburg dominion will have no indisputable owners. The death of the German Kaiser—the healthiest among us are not immortal—would probably change every political combination in Europe, and might in changing them let loose some elements of disorder which are now repressed by fear. Abd-ul-Hamid, again, can scarcely have a successor of his own type, equally astute and equally indifferent to human life ; and with a feeble successor the great struggle for the remaining territories of the old. Eastern Empire, which is sure to come some day, is almost certain immediately to begin. There are, besides, chances of explosions, in Russia for instance, which might lead to something more than diplomatic action, more especially if the explosions revived the Polish hope of regaining a national indi- viduality. None of these chances are calculable in the least degree, and the prospect of peace cannot therefore be said to be in any way beyond the risk of disappointment.
Nevertheless, apart from the risk of catastrophes, which should never be forgotten, and never be allowed to enter into political calculation, the prospect of peace seems to us to have substantially improved. For almost the first time in modern history France may be considered a make-weight on the side of pbace. For centuries she has been the " trouble house " of Europe, and even in recent years her natural craving to recover her lost provinces has been regarded by diplomatists to involve a threat. She has, however, for some time past displayed a genuine devotion to peace. Her people, warned by the terrible example of 1870 that war is not always glorious or profitable, have betrayed a dislike of militarism which; inconsistent though it be with the history of France, is nearly universal. She has definitely preferred rulers of the tranquil and able but peaceable notaire kind to swashbucklers of any description, whether with great names or without them. The most " enfranchised ' of her population openly protest against war, seek as an ideal " the solidarity of humanity," and are almost prepared, should they obtain power, to reorganise the Army on the Swiss basis, that is, for the defence only of existing boundaries. At tile same time, to make that defence efficient, the majority perfect the education of their Army, steadily improve its weapons, especially the artillery, and are striving to develop in their officers the professional capacity which had, it seems admitted; been permitted seriously to decline. France, therefore; while most reluctant to provoke any enemy, has become still more reluctant to encounter the risks of aggression. She betrays the same spirit in her alliances, having " redded up" her secular quarrel with Great Britain, and persuaded Italy and Spain that she no longer has designs on their independence. She must always lead the Latin races, but at present it is not towards war. This attitude will weigh heavily in favour of peace, more especially as the entente with Great Britain makes her coasts safe against anything but a nearly impossible coalition of maritime Powers: Then the growing desire of Germans for quiet, as essential to thal increase of wealth 'and commerce which makes them so much happier, or at all events so much more resigned to the drawbacks in their condition, has un- doubtedly been intensified by the proof afforded by the scene at Algeciras that, except for purposes of defence, they stand alone. For defence, the Triple Alliance could. still be relied on; but Austria is not anxious to increase either German power or German wealth, •while Italy' is most anxious not to forfeit the guarantees front Great Britain which she enjoys in the Mediterranean: gastrin, being a bundle of sticks rather than a club, her rulers are always for peace as a permanent policy, and have too many heavy internal difficulties on hand to consider the present moment an opportune one for any departure from their usual rtile of tranquil referees. And, finally, Russia, rather bewildered by the situation which has followed her recent great defeat, sullenly awaits the " solution " which Is to restore her energy and her prestige among the nations Of the world.
It is said, too, all over the Continent—and, strange as it may seem, we incline to believe it—that the new attitude of the United States, which so recently struck down an ancient European Monarchy as it were with a pat of the hand, tends heavily in favour of peace. It is quite true that the statesmen of the Union still profess that one of their first objects is to abstain from inter- ference in the affairs of Europe ; but still, they do not remain at a distance from those affairs, and the difference between interference and the action of a representative like Mr. White in the Conference at Algeciras is not to European diplomatists easily perceptible. A six-foot policeman may be the best-tempered man in the world ; but if he is looking on at a riot, and wishing the riot to stop, the rioters are apt to measure his shadow as a very palpable element in the situation. He might strike in, and if he did he might alter the "balance of power',' among the fighters most materially. America has no army, say all the Intelligence Departments ; but for defence she has two millions of men who know how to use a rifle, and if resolved to offend, her wealth would enable her to create a great fleet with most annoying rapidity. She must be counted on as a heavy concrete argument against the reckless pursuit of objects of ambition. With America, Great Britain, and Austria honestly devoted to peace, with the German people Seeking wealth, and with serious uncertainties and anxieties as regards the control of the great markets of Further Asia, no one will break up the truce of God with- out much of that kind of reflection which al ways induces able men to wait. The doubter whom the poet represented as reproaching men with being " sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought " recognised that while so sicklied they would be indisposed, or even incapacitated, for violent action. Europe, we think, is safe,, at least for a while, from any coups de tdte,—we may hope also from any coups de poignard.
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