The Italian Elections
A good deal of wasted energy has gone into calculating the probable numerical strengths of the parties as a result of next Sunday's general election in Italy. Whatever figures the voting shows, Sunday can do very little to resolve the fundamental Italian problem, which is to discover how far the Communists and their opponents can rely on the support of Russia and the Western Powers in an ultimate show- down. It is reasonable to doubt whether either the Left or the present Government coalition would be prepared to accept an elec-
toral victory of its opponents with complete passivity, and it is therefore at least as reasonable to doubt whether their supporters outside Italy are capable of passive indifference. The elections are only a stage in the open conflict for Italy between East and West, a conflict which is being waged by the promise of material help as much as by the power of beliefs. If, as seems likely, the de Gasperi coalition manages to maintain or even increase its present position, it (and we) will be faced with the possibility of Communist violence, or at any rate of widespread strikes organised by the parties of the Popular Front. What happens then ? We know that the threatened punishment for Italy, if she voted the Communists into power, was to be the withdrawal of Marshall aid. But a defeat of the Com- munists, by itself, is not enough to make Marshall aid fruitful and Italy thereby prosperous or Europe secure. Anyone who supposes that a coalition victorytin Italy will mean that all is over bar the shouting is likely to be sadly disillusioned ; it is, in fact, only the shouting that will be over.
