EMANCIPATION OF THE SLAVS
Richard Bassett on the
impending break-up of the Yugoslav federation
Zagreb IN A long-forgotten brick warehouse be- hind Zagreb's cathedral, they are putting General Jellacic back together again. Fern- korn's equestrian statue of the Croatian Ban who helped save the Habsburgs in 1848 was secretly trundled away one frosty night by the communists after the war. Tito's Yugoslavia had no room for Croat heroes who had been Catholics or whose swords had always pointed east. But it says something about the failure of communism to do more than paper over history that this statue was never destroyed. The General may regard both his arms, which were broken off, from an unseemly dis- tance but head, horse and sabre are intact. When on 16 October he is restored to his old resting place at the centre of Zagreb's main square, another nail will have been driven into the coffin of the Yugoslav federation. Another artificial link between Central European Catholic Kaisertreu Croatia and Balkan Serbia will be cut.
The collapse of Yugoslavia is not only distressing for the Serbs, who have run this unfortunate child of the treaties of St Germain and Trianon for 70 years, it is also sad news for those in King Charles Street. The corner-stone of British foreign policy in the Balkans for the last 40 years is now also crumbling.
This policy, fashioned by those who had read rather too much Wickham Steed and Seton Watson, was flawed from the begin- ning. The marriage of seven million de- voutly Catholic Croats with Orthodox Serbs whose history had been one of unrelieved oppression by the Turks was perhaps the cruellest if only one of the many jokes played on Europe by the 'ethnographers' at Versailles.
Conveniently for the diplomats, intellec- tuals and'ethnographers', Serbs and Croats were both 'South Slays' with a shared spoken language. Religion, history and tradition were deemed irrelevant first by one starry-eyed generation of slavophile Englishmen and then by another whose links with the Comintern demanded we collaborate with the subjection of the Christian people of the Balkans to a non-Christian tyranny. It was left to Evelyn Waugh to point out in an anony- mous letter to the Times in 1945 that 'the assertion of race as the sole bond between men was one of the more absurd and odious errors of our late enemies'.
But since then Britain has continued to support Yugoslavia and turn a blind eye to Balkan history. This may have been de- fensible once Tito broke with Moscow and cleaned up his more disagreeable be- haviour towards the Catholic church but now, with Tito dead and with both northern republics of Croatia and Slovenia commit- ted to autonomy, it is time to move on. Relations with Albania, stymied as much as a result of our supporting Belgrade as our distrust of Tirana, must be resumed. By the year 2010, there will, thanks to the highest birth-rate in Europe, be more Albanians in the Balkans than anyone else. The Serbs' repeated violations of human rights in the predominantly ethnic Alba- nian region of Kosovo, which this week has declared independence from Serbia, must be condemned by London as well as Washington.
Perhaps after the Foreign Office's supine attitude towards Ceausescu in the mid- eighties, standing by Belgrade as it calls for greater centralisation, more communism and more suppression in Kosovo is all we can expect; but I for one am tired of hearing this policy of smarming up to various Balkan despots defended by nylon- shirted, inarticulate diplomats who, at great cost to the taxpayer, are wheeled out to justify this nonsense on the grounds that it will help sell a few more rusting BAC 1-11s.
The question which immediately raises its head is whether the long overdue disintegration of Yugoslavia can be achieved without violence. Most of the generals in the Yugoslav army, it is pointed out, are Serbs. They have a vested interest in preserving the federation, as small armies mean fewer generals. But the idea that the present conscript federal army made up of Albanians, Slovenes and Croats will en- force a military putsch engineered in Bel- grade is unrealistic. Though more Serbs and Croats were killed by each other in the last war than by the Germans, 40 years of relative tranquillity have dampened the military enthusiasm of the Serbs. They are no longer, in Churchill's memorable though eccentric phrase, 'the Prussians of the Balkans'.
I wish I could be so confident about the Croats. Their new leader Mr Tudj man is a former Partisan general. Amiable, well- attired and articulate, he has the look of that typical Zagreb gentleman who is happiest partnering a consul for a rubber of bridge in the Gradska Kavarna. But around him are emigres from Australia and Canada; young girls and boys with a fanatical look in their eyes. For them the Nazi puppet state of Ante Pavelic — quite one of the most unpleasant offshoots of the Third Reich — which ruled Croatia with a rod of iron is seen as 'the one time Croatia was free'. These are dangerous words. The sooner Mr Tudj man distances himself from these unwholesome sentiments the better. The Croats, as anyone who sees them praying at the Stone Gate in Zagreb's old town will agree, have a Polish fervour about them when they get excited; I would give little for the life-expectancy of the Serb who arouses their fury. It was Mar- shal Marmont who described the Croats as 'I could stay like this for ever. . 'one vast armoured camp'. Agents of a mighty will, they were and still are capable of unhesitating obedience to the nationalist cause.
Unfortunately one source of conflict appears inevitable: Bosnia. Once again Sarajevo appears set to be the fault line between two worlds. The Bosnian capital is claimed by Croats as well as Serbs. The Bosnians, however, are pragmatists.
Under the Austrians they made formidable soldiers, the gurkhas of the Imperial and Royal army. Hitler also found work for them equipping an entire Bosnian SS regiment with fezzes, an early but chilling combination of terror and theatre. At the same time, when Serbia's state appeared in the ascendant, the I3osnians were quick to enlist in Belgrade's service. It was a young Bosnian who assassinated the heir to the Austrian throne. Colonel Apis and his Black Hand organisation in Serbia, which must share the blame for the crime, found their best recruits in Bosnia. But as Croatia is considerably more prosperous than Ser- bia at present, it is likely that the Bosnians will opt for the north. It is, sadly, equally likely the Serbs will attempt to prevent them.
To the south, in Montenegro whose charming capital Cetinje reburied its last king a few years ago, things will return to their pre-Great War status of shifting alliances. Fear of the Albanians will ulti- mately always keep the Macedonians. Montenegrins and Serbs together. All three have similar histories and an outlook born of centuries of rule by pashas rather than emperors. This small rump, a little larger than modern Austria, will be all that survives of Tito's multi-racial empire. Preoccupied with Kosovo's inevitable attempts to become part of a reformist Albania, Belgrade will have little time to worry about the Slovenes and Croats busy applying for membership of the EEC and reforging old links with the rest of central Europe. Deprived however of the vast revenues of the Dalmatian tourist industry which will now be redirected to Zagreb, the southern republics will perhaps qualify for relief aid, though, with centralist com- munists running the show in Belgrade, this will he of little help.
King Alexander of Yugoslavia, shortly before he was assassinated in Marseilles, told the British minister resident in Bel- grade Sir Nevile Henderson, that for Yugoslavia to survive it would need an incorruptible bureaucracy constructed painstakingly over a generation. Thanks to the Yugoslav crown, like all other Balkan monarchies being discreetly sold down the river after the war, this one possibility of preserving an historic absurdity was lost. We should not be surprised now when the entire house of cards collapses about our ears.
Richard Bassett's Balkan Hours will be published in the autumn by John Murray.
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