AUSTRIA IN THE BALKAN PENINSULA.
AFTER months of negotiation, often of a very acrid kind— negotiation, that is, accompanied by menace—an Austrian Division has received orders to enter Novi-Bazar next Monday. The Turkish troops have been ordered to fallback, the Albanians, who might make a very ugly demonstration in flank, have been either pacified or terrified, and the occupation will in a few days be complete. The district thus acquired is not a very large or very rich one, but it is strategically of im- portance, as without it the Albanians cannot close the Austrian road southward ; and we believe the situation, broadly viewed, is very nearly as follows:—The Austrian Emperor is steadily pursuing the policy which, from the outbreak of the Servian war, we ventured to predict he would follow, -namely, the acquisition, first, of territory, and secondly, of influence, within the Balkan Peninsula. The Austrian Empire is, after a fashion, constitutional, that is, the representatives of the people can reject new laws or new taxes, and an im- perial order is not a judicial decree, but in foreign affairs the reigning Hapsburg is still the pivot of power. No Minister who resists the Emperor's policy can stand, and no representa- tive can oppose it openly until matters have advanced too far for safe retreat. The Emperor, again, is dominated by a single desire,—to compensate his House for the territorial losses incurred in the earlier years of his reign, and transmit his Empire to Isis descendants undiminished either in pro- vinces or population. His only chance of securing these ends is to acquire in the Balkan Peninsula the position he held and
i lost n Italy, and it is to this object that all the efforts of his policy are directed. Already he has been singularly successful. The new Bosnia, which now includes Herzegovina, will, in a few years, when the Sultan's nominal claims are withdrawn, be worth more to the Hapsburgs than Lombardo-Venetia,- first, because the population are South Slave, who have no antipathy to the Hapsburgs, and will become loyal soldiers, such as the resentful Italians could not be ; and secondly, because the new possession makes of the Dalmatian sea-board, formerly worthless, tin invaluable property. There is not in Europe a fitter province than that which now stretches down the Adriatic in one broad expanse, bordered by its own coast-line, from Fiume to Cattaro. Possessed of this new acquisition, however, which already compensates for the direct Italian losses, the Austrian Court desires further extension southward to the Mgean ; and with this view has secured Novi-Bazar, the most commanding situa- tion on the road to Salonica ; and has, it is stated this week, vigilantly resisted the Turkish idea of giving Greece compen- sation for .Tannina by an extension eastward in Thessaly. Austria does not care about Greece, but she does care about the southern road, and is fighting to keep it open, to the present advantage of Greece, which needs Jannina most strenuously. In addition to this, the Emperor is reviving in the Balkan Peninsula the plan, for half a century so successful in Italy, of subordinate alliances. Availing himself of the bitterness felt in Roumania towards Russia, he has proposed, through the Archduke Albrecht, an alliance to Prince Charles; he has so conciliated the Prince of Montenegro, that be has visited Vienna as a favoured guest, and publicly declared his confidence in the Austrian Court ; he has secured such an ascendancy in Servia that the Austrian Envoy is the most powerful person, we do not say the most trusted, in Belgrade, and the inmost tenderness will speedily be shown at Sophia towards the Bulgarian Prince. The statesmen of the Peninsula are told that they may rely upon Austrian support against Russia, and all are soothed with promises of future advantages, if only they will prove tractable and complaisant now. All these movements, and another which will shortly be announced—a proposal of commercial alliance between the Balkan States and Austro- Hungary—are parts of a large plan, framed with considerable skill, and prosecuted so far with a success greatly at variance with the ill-fortune which from 1848 to 1871 dogged the House of Hapsburg, and twice seemed to endanger its exist- ence as a first-class Power. Should it succeed, Austria will, within twenty years, be the protecting Power of the Balkans. To, the final success of this plan—which may be greatly facilitated if the now family alliance gives Austria a counter- poise to Italy in Spain—the consent, and indeed the direct
adhesion, of Germany is indispensable. Austria cannot move till her rear is safe, and, moreover, does not want to fig-ht her way, but to win her way to the Mgean, process in which the support of the German Ambassador at Constantinople is of most material assistance. Hence the steady friendship of the Austrian Chancellor for Prince Bis- marck, the anxious endeavour, when Count Andrassy retired, to convince Berlin that no change of policy would follow, and finally, the long personal visit of explanation, which was felt in Vienna to be so nearly a humiliation, that an official story was invented of Prince Bismarck's intention to return the call when Count Andrassy had retired. These great efforts, it is evident, both from the inspired rumours of Vienna and from the final order to occupy Novi- Bazar, which had hung fire for weeks, have been suc-
cessful, as it was natural they should be. Austria is asking much, but is asking it in a direction in which Prince Bismarck publicly stated that he wished her to expand, and she has much to offer. Any one great alliance which can be relied on is just now everything to Germany, and Austria, once fairly in the Balkan, can be thoroughly relied on, her own position, threatened there by Russia. Italy, and Turkey, being far too dangerous for treachery. There is no need to believe, or disbelieve, or seriously consider stories about the Triple Alliance, or its decay, or the chances of its being recemented. Prince Bismarck governs Germany, and Prince Bismarck's bete noire is the idea that some day or other France and Russia will simultaneously attack his hardly consolidated Empire. Whether he is at lice anti-Russian, and contem- plates some plan of driving he back, or, like his master, is personally inclined to the old ( irabination which destroyed Poland, or is, as is most probable, waiting events with a dozen combinations in his mind, hardly matters in the present dis- cussion. There is the danger, and a faithful Austrian alliance would reduce its proportions one-half—for recollect, it is not only Austrian help lie gains, but the absence of Austrian enmity —and this alliance is obtainable without the sacrifice of any German interest, present or future. Germany only wishes that Germans shall be welcome in the Balkan States. It is natural, therefore, that whether accepted or not—and, no doubt, the desire of the German Emperor for the friendship of the Russian Court is an obstacle in the way—the alliance should be regarded on the Continent as an arranged fact. We see nothing in the reports, even if they are completely true, which should rouse English susceptibility. It is no interest of this country that France and Germany should fight, or that Russia should be enabled to threaten Berlin after the fashion which her newspapers have seemed for the last six weeks, whatever their motive, inclined to adopt. Our interest is peace, and a solid alliance in Central Europe, a sense of comparative security in the great military States, must, while it lasts, conduce to peace. And as to the Austrian advance in the Balkan Peninsula, though it is not the solution of that problem which Liberals would desire, it is of the practicable solutions one of the least objectionable. It is unfavourable to Russia, which, in the eyes of Tories, is a result that ought to sanctify any programme ; and it is unfavourable to Turkey, which, in the eyes of Liberals, ought at least to be a redeeming point. Every district taken from the Turks is a district gained by civilisa- tion and humanity. Austria has no Asiatic possessions or interests, that her advance to the Egean, or even to Constan- tinople itself, should rouse the fierce selfishness of our country- men, and no position such as places her, as geography places Germany, out of the reach of the influence of English fleets. We can be as unpleasant in the ,Adriatic as in the Agean. The worst feature in the Austrian advance is the obstacle it throws in the way of Greek expansion, but that obstacle may yet be overcome. The Austrian advance does not bar the Greek possession of Epirus, West Thessaly, Albania, and the Islands ; and if the Hapsburgs touch Greek territory, they will be no stronger in it than they were in Italy. Greece will be Pied- mont, with Italy for an ally, and every chance of winning in time all provinces in which her language is predominant, or her civilisation popular with the people. The true line for a far-sighted diplomacy to take would not be to support the Turks against the Austrians, but to insist that each acquisi- tion Austria makes should be governed as an appanage, and Aot absorbed within the Empire. That leaves to each pro- vince its autonomy and its chance of the separate political development which, when the opportunity arrives may pro- duce a new and a freer political combination. We should greatly prefer a federation of the States of the Balkan Penin- sula, to any other possible outcome of the Eastern Question ; but if that may not be, an Austrian Protectorate, formal or informal, is a temporary arrangement centuries in advance of a Turkish suzerainty. The Hapsburgs are, at all events, Europeans.
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