Can Labour win with Baldwin?
There is a merciful element of sheer comedy about elections. One would need a heart of stone to contemplate Mr Harold Wilson's current defence of orthodoxy and financial respectability without (as Oscar Wilde said of the death of Little Nell) bursting into hearty laughter. Was he only a dream, then, that harbinger of white-hot change. that scourge of the old ways, whom we seem to remember from half a dozen years ago? How long, the voter might well ask himself, before this new true-blue Harold Wilson takes to fre- quenting ducal grouse moors or murmuring about the inestimable values of ripe tradi- tion? Again: have our recent politics furnished a more strangely mirthful spec- tacle than that of Mr Edward Heath. whose political soul thrives on dreams of order and efficiency and visions of a smoothly humming governmental machine, asserting himself thunderously to be hot for change and innovation, thirsty for a new style of government and an end to the stultifying orthodoxies of the times? If the electors have tears of laughter to shed, let them prepare to shed them now: they may not come upon so rare an opportunity again.
'At this moment.' ran the prime minis- terial dictum at the end of the parliament- ary session. 'any party would be returned if they promised to do nothing.' This view of the public taste has tended to recur at intervals throughout history: that the session which prompted this particular ob- servation was nearly half a century ago. and that its author was Stanley Baldwin. in no wise detracts from its application today. Mr Wilson. who has shown himself a brilliant predator upon the attitudes and ideas of his predecessors in high office. clearly went into the present campaign with a picture of Mr Baldwin next to his heart. Safety First: responsibility; a breath- ing space; even, thanks to the gallant vic- tory over the Springboks, Peace In Our Time—a11 these serviceable Baldwinesque props were to be taken out of the cup- board and put to use. Mr Wilson's open- ing defence of responsibility and contin- utty in government was pretty to see. 'This is the time for a breakthrough to an excit- ing and wonderful period in our history.' cried Mr Wilson in 1964. No longer: if no Labour orator has yet appealed earn- estly for Steadiness and Trust. the plea cannot be far away.
Now Mr Wilson, as is well known, is the best political tactician currently in the business; yet already the Baldwin card is
beginning to look a little frayed. The opinion polls no longer unanimously register a Labour lead and the Sunday Times's latest figure of a 2 per cent Tory lead could signal an important turning point. The plan of preserving Labour's newly-acquired dominance in the country by sounding noble variations upon the themes of 'responsibility' and 'continuity' has not prevented the Tories from eroding Labour's strength. especially (according to Monday's Gallup poll in the Daily Tele- graph) where it most matters, in the mar- ginal seats.
In fact the Baldwin card was always bound to be an uncertain winner for Labour for two different reasons—one political, the other, so to speak. logistical. Its political weakness has to do with the personality of Mr Wilson and the stark facts of Labour's record in office. Mr Wilson has survived many storms and set- backs through the exercise of distinctive qualities, among which buoyancy. cocki- ness, a sort of perky cheekiness towards his adversaries, have been of great value. When the mud has been flying in his direc- tion his first (and second) impulse has always been to ensure that a large portion of it was swiftly returned. He is emphatic- ally not, in other words. Mr Baldwin. Mellow he may be compared with the party hatchet-man who Succeeded Hugh Gaitskell: but to pretend that he has evolved into a benign focus of national unity would be preposterous.
Moreover, incredulous and delighted as the nation may have been when the tradi- tional balance of payments deficit was transmogrified into a bulging surplus, such a surplus is not, in itself, much fun for them once the novelty has worn off. Prices still climb upwards, taxation remains odiously heavy. unemployment is worse than most people can remember. To say that the novelty is wearing off now might be premature; but the inelegant exchanges of an election campaign may be relied upon to awaken people's memories or what happened in all those dreadful years before this precious surplus materialised. That is presumably what is happening now. If it isn't. it ought to be. A Prime Minister and a government• who go to the country as the staid guardians of financial respect- ability require to have it pointed out. raucously and often, if they have spent most of their term of office running wild- eyed to the pawnshop. Then there is the logistical difficulty when a Labour leader tries to play the Baldwin card. The intoning of high- minded platitudes about stability and the perils of change may very well gratify British voters. but unfortunately (from Labour's point of view) it is also rather boring. 'Safety First' is what people tend to like in governments. It is not, on the other hand, a certain recipe for getting them out to vote. Labour's supporters are, traditionally, harder to get to the polls than the Tories': obviously therefore any 'soothing' compaign must be a risky one for Labour. It is especially risky when (as now) Conservative voters arc rarin' to go.
Last week an ogc poll in the Evening Standard indicated a Labour lead in the country of 2 per cent: but it also indicated that the Tories could expect a significantly better turnout of their supporters than could Labour, that in fact if the national turnout were the same as in 1966 then the Tories would end up with a workable majority. The old electoral maxim that a high turnout favours Labour has never had a more intriguing application than now. Hence the conclusion that, if present trends continue. if 'safety first' is seen to be failing to do the trick for Labour, then an abrupt change of gear may be expected. A campaign ending with a sudden high- voltage scare or stunt in the last few days may then very well look the best bet for Mr Wilson.
The best course for the Tories now is to stick to the record. Mr Wilson has staked everything on a burst of spring sunshine effacing the memory of all the years of hard slog which preceded it. The Tories must exert themselves to stir the public's memory. Otherwise the Government will drift back to power as if the record of in- flation. devaluation. unemployment and high taxes simply did not exist. In fact the public, judging by the polls' evidence, is less likery to be soothed into acceptance of the Wilson doctrine than he must have hoped. ft is beginning at least to listen again to the Tories. All is not well with the economy. the future is not sunlit and tranquil, there are fresh economic storms not far off. even Mr Woodrow Wyatt says the country will be 'in the soup' again
without a compulsory wage and price freeze soon; the present galloping wage- rise euphoria must be transient. So the contest is still hair-raisingly close. Mr Wilson will probably be dropping his Baldwin mask pretty soon. The Tories had better prepare for shocks and keep their heads. They have begun to gain ground and the race is open.
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