THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN FRANCE.
FRENCH statesmen have a faculty, amounting to genius, for making accommodations, but the present situation will tax the ingenuity of the most resourceful. M. Viviani, the probable new Premier, may surmount all his difficulties, but if so be will at once be proved an exceptional man, and we shall certainly hear a great deal more of him. The simple facts of the situation need only be stated to show what a nasty dilemma awaits any candidate for its horns. At the recent General Election the Socialists had the chief success in gaining seats ; they have returned to the Chamber just over a hundred strong, and must be con- sulted continually by any Premier who attempts to govern with the sanction of the combined groups of the Left. But the Socialists, led by M. Jaures, are determined to get rid of the Three Years' Service Law and to replace it with the former Two Years' Service Law. At the same time, a Premier drawing his sanction from the Left and Extreme Left must, of course, satisfy the Radical-Socialists. Now the Radical-Socialists dare not condemn three years' service because they know very well that the majority of the electors are in favour of it. Here, indeed, there is a complication within a complication ; for the Radical- . Socialists were pledged to two years' service by their famous Pau programme, but at the recent elections they precipitately explained away their pledge, or observed a masterly silence on the whole subject, directly they noticed which way the cat was jumping. The new Premier, in brief, must seem to promise a repeal of three years' service to satisfy the Socialists, but he must not act on his promise if he is to keep his Radical-Socialist supporters right with their constituents. It seems a hope- less puzzle, and M. Doumergue, who was Premier until Monday, feeling quite unequal to facing the difficulties, resigned before meeting the new Chamber.
So far as we can see, it is a vain experiment for any Premier to try to reconcile the unequivocal objections of the Socialists to three years' service with the hesitations and trimmings of the Radical-Socialists, who are still clothed in the torn fragments of the Pau programme. The latter want to be saved from themselves, and the best chance for any Premier who desires to govern on sure foundations is to recognize that three years' service is necessary to France, and that the law must not be repealed, come what may. With that determination firmly in his mind, he can proceed to treat the formal susceptibilities of his followers and their embarrassments in their con- stituencies with as much tenderness as his tact enables him to exercise. The quiet resolution of Frenchmen all over France to give the personal service and the money necessary for the defence of the country is a notable reaction from the arid days of M. Combes, when a sense of national unity was lost in mere sectarianism—for sectarian- ism can, of course, be an effect of secularism as well as of religious bigotry. The fact is that, though the new party founded by N. Briand has made no external progress such as can be reckoned in voting power, the spirit of M. Briand —who is a superb opportunist—is only an echo of the feel- ings of the France of to-day. Frenchmen are tired of perse- cution; they are ready to act on the principle of live and let live. They turn from their own Army to examine the numbers of the German Army, and they recognize that, so long as armies are instruments of political argument, it is essential that they should submit themselves to a Three Years' Service Law. They do not pretend that it is agree- able, but they know that it is necessary ; and for the common good they think it is time to remember an obvious fact which had almost become obscured—that Roman Catholics, Protestants, and Freethinkers may still be good Frenchmen and good defenders of their common heritage. This, we believe, is the conviction—expressed in general terms of conduct—of Youug France, and no ' Premier will endure long in office who neglects to fall in with it. Of course, K. Jaures, who is a really able party leader, perceives the danger that Young France will be too strong for him, and that the greatly increased numbers of the Socialists in the Chamber will avail him nothing in the end. He is taking the strongest measures, therefore, to prevent backsliding in anyone over whom he has a vestige of Parliamentary control. He announces a formula of obedience and discipline, and requires all whom he can command or intimidate to accept it. No freedom of judgment is to be tolerated among the advanced friends of Freedom. If we ventured to prophesy what will happen under, such conditions, we should say that the tyranny will become too stringent, and that the patriotic desire of Frenchmen to be strong will be able to declare itself more boldly in proportion as M. Jaures tries to tighten the shackles on his own followers. The Radical-Socialists will not venture to offend the Socialists at first, and will do lip-service to their old demand for a, Two Years' Law ; but in the end, if the French people wish to retain three years' service, they will certainly do so. M. Poincare is, of course, very strongly on the side of three years' service, and it is to be remembered that so long as he is President he will do his beat so to guide politics as to save a law which he holds to be indis- pensable. He too is faced by a dilemma. The Parlia- mentary majority has swayed more to the Left since he took office. While he tries to coax it back, he must not commit the mistake of appearing to back the Army against Parliament simply because he knows that the officers of the Army are heartily with him. A cry of "the Army against the People " would be as hollow in France as in England, yet it might be made to serve its political. turn.
It would be an imperfect survey of the political situation which neglected to mention that there are other questions than the military one, and that the new Govern- ment might come to grief on any one of such problems as electoral reform, the Income Tax, and the general question of finance. The elections made it clear that there is a widespread desire for electoral reform. The scrutin d'arrandissement is gradually yielding before the advance of the scrutin de Hate and Proportional Representation. As regards the Income Tax, we take it that France will not be able to make her Budget balance very much longer without such a tax. The typical Frenchman hates direct taxation, but an enormous sum of money has to be raised, and if an Income Tax Bill which is not too inquisitorial is presented to Parliament it ought to have a good chance of passing. The mistake would be to begin with a too drastic measure. When once the principle of an Income Tax has become the law of the land it will be easy to tighten up its provisions as new financial needs arise. The sum to he raised by new taxation or loan is no less than £60,000,000 if the ex- penditure on Morocco be included. M. Doumergue dropped all thought of a loan, and we shall see whether M. Viviani also believes it possible to pay his way without a loan. M. Viviani, as an independent Radical-Socialist, can enjoy more freedom than most French Radical-Socialists, and may change his opinions without a crushing scandal. His well-known sympathies with Labour need not bring him into a tangle at a time when Labour is fairly quiet, but his strong anti-clerical views are less auspicious. In 1910 he retired from N. Briand's Cabinet, openly denouncing M. Briand's policy in the railway strike. And his phrase about the Separation Act " extinguishing the lights of heaven" constituted him one of the most uncompro- mising secularists in France. He is just over fifty years old. A journalist and barrister, he became Minister of Labour under N. Clemenceau. He has spoken and voted against three years' service. If he continues of the same mind now his Ministry, we think, will not last long.
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