UNEMPLOYMENT IN GERMANY
[To the Editor of THE SPECTATOR.]
Srit,—In The Spectator of March 16th Miss Munroe alleges that in my article on unemployment in Germany I ruled out all question of the accuracy of the official figures on the ground that they were " confirmed by an approximately cor- responding rise in the employment figures of the Health Insurance offices." What I actually. wrote was that study at the Reich Statistical Office of the methods and in particular of the personnel of the office convinced me that they were unlikely to be faked. I went on to state that the diminution of unemployment by just over 2,000,000 (after adjustment for the counting of
about 200,000 labour camp inmates as employed) between January, 1933, and January, 1934, was corroborated by the Health Insurance statistics. These, which relate to employ- ment and are computed by separate authorities on a totally different basis, showed that 2,030,000 persons had been absorbed by the labour market during the same period. It should be noted that labour camp inmates continue to be excluded *Om these figures. This accounts for the discrepancy noted by Miss Munroe in her comparison of the two sets of official statistics for January and December, 1933.
Miss Munroe suggests that this improvement is incom- patible with th3 wage-tax and retail trade returns. The wage- tax receipts were R.M. 65,300,000 in January, 1933, and R.M. 65,470,000 in January, 1984. This tax is only imposed upon wages and salaries above R.M. 115 per month, so that a great many workers, particularly those absorbed as un- skilled labour by public works, pay little or nothing. On the other hand, all the innumerable salary reductions in the higher_ grades seriously affected the receipts. Moreover, tax allowances to salaried persons taking on domestic servants, or making contributions to the " voluntary fund for the furtherance of national employment," as well as the inclusion of the " bachelor wage tax surcharge " under a separate head, are estimated to account for a reduction of over R.M. 5,000,000 in the receipts from the wage tax.
- As for retail trade turnover, it amounted to R.M. 145,300,000 in January, 1983, and to R.M. 161,700,000 in January, 1934. It was, of course, seriously affected by reduced purchasing power in the wealthier classes. There are various other tests, such as the yield from the " Contributions to Unemployment Assistance " (showing a rise from January to January from R.M. 43,380,000 to R.M. 46,230,000) to which the employ- ment figures can be put, and they all show an improvement.
As for the possibility of active Social Democrats or Com- munists being afraid to register, if Miss Munroe re-reads my article she will see that I suggested it. But to my knowledge many well-known " Marxists," including those released from concentration camps, are in receipt of benefit, so that the numbers afraid to register can scarcely be large. There are, of course, the emigrants, but they number less than 100,000 at the highest estimate.
The -Germans are a thorough people. I cannot help feeling that if they were faking their statistics they would fake the lot and not have obvious discrepancies. My opinion that the unemployment figures are broadly correct remains unchanged.
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