ELECTION UNCERTAINTIES.
In considering Budget prospects, the first point to be remembered is that last year the Chancellor benefited by the exceptional figure of £13,200,000 representing profits in the Currency Note Department taken over at the time of the fusion of the Currency Notes with the Bank of England Issue. That item will not recur in the new year. On the other hand, the new taxation imposed a twelve- month ago should be more productive, the Chancellor, in fact, in his previous Budget estimating that in the second year more than an additional £8,000,000 should be gathered in. If to this £8,000,000 we add the normal increase in the Revenue which should occur, apart from any change in taxation, from year to year, there seems some reason for hoping that the coming year's gross Revenue might be placed at as high a figure as last year, namely, £836,000,000. On the one hand, it would be prudent to anticipate a shrinkage in the revenue from Estate Duties, but on the other hand it may fairly be hoped that the figures will be favourably affected by improved trade. Of course, it is true that on this occasion the Chancellor will have to reckon with General Election uncertainties, but that is too problematical a point to be taken into con- sideration when calculating Budget possibilities.
The total officially estimated Ordinary Supply Expendi- ture for the new year as distinct from debt charges has been given as £421,000,000, and if to this is added the total Debt charge the amount would be round about £810,000,000. Whether in view of last year's encroach- ment the Chancellor will decide to increase the Sinking Fund for the new year remains to be seen, but if he does not, a fairly large surplus would seem to be indicated. Probably, in view of his De-Rating Scheme, Mr. Churchill may decide to keep a further large surplus in hand, but it must be remembered that he has not only £22,000,000 already placed to a special Suspensory Fund, but his official Estimates of Civil Service Expenditure for the new year include a large sum on account of the De-Rating Scheme. Altogether, it looks as though the Chancellor would be in the position of having considerable sums in hand enabling him to produce a Budget which should give some measure of relief to the taxpayer. ARTHUR W. KIDDY.
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