LUXEMBURG.
THERE is a scent of danger in this Luxemburg business. The demi-official accounts are still not entirely in accord, but none of them tend to diminish the gravity of the situation. It appears to be quite certain that the Emperor of the French, who is aware that every enlargement of their frontier is acceptable to Frenchmen, and who three years -ago bought Mentone from its Sovereign, the Due de Valen- tinois, Prince de Monaco, or whatever the heir of the Grimaldis calls himself, agreed to buy the Grand Duchy of Luxemburg from its Grand Duke, the King of Holland, for four millions sterling. Whether the transaction commenced with an offer from the King-Duke, who has dissipated his share of the vast private fortune accumulated by his predecessor out of his colonial mono- polies, or with the Emperor himself, is still unknown, but the latter is the most probable. The natural course for the King-Duke was to offer his property to Germany. Prussia, he must have known, would have bought the Duchy, as Count von Bismarck acknowledged, and such a sale would have 'created no outcry and opened no loophole for the interfer- ence of Europe. Luxemburg belonged to the old Bund, and its inclusion within the new one would have involved no menace either to Holland, to Belgium, or to France,—would, in fact, have been scarcely noticed, except by the Dutch, happy to be relieved of their Sovereign's Schleswig-Holstein. It is probable, therefore, that the Emperor commenced the negotiation; but be that as it may, it was commenced and was carried to a conclusion as far as Holland was con- cerned. The King-Duke agreed to sell his rights and the Em- peror agreed to buy them, and all that remained was to persuade -the Lnxemburgers to vote for annexation and to obtain the assent of the Prussian Court. The Laxemburgers, though Germans by race and language, are Catholic by creed, and what with the priests and the merchants, the hope of Catholic education and the certainty of free trade with France, they might not have proved quite so inexorable as they believe them- selves to be. At Berlin, again, the Emperor, for some inex- plicable reason, appears to have hoped for success. He cannot, indeed, exactly believe what he makes the Moniteur say, that en the dissolution of the Germanic Confederation Luxemburg became the absolute property of the House of Orange, for le knew that its capital was garrisoned by Prussians, who, 'whether as reversionary heirs of the Bund, or as invaders, or as allies acting under the Treaties of 1815, had, at all events,
some rights. As a matter of strict legality, we believe Prussia has a right, under a still existent treaty between her and Holland, to garrison the fortress as a German outpost ; but, at all events, there she is, and garrisons cannot be withdrawn without orders from the States they represent. Still the Emperor, who always hears soothing things from the Prussian Ambassador in Paris, may have imagined that Prussia would not contend for a territory so small, would, at all events, leave the matter to be decided by a popular vote. He forgot, it would almost seem, the special position of Prussia, as chief of a federation. Luxem- burg, whether within the new Confederation or not, is clearly German, as German as Bavaria, which also is outside the new pale, and to allow its cession to a non-German power would be a fatal precedent. Bavaria might one day sell the Palatinate, or Hesse its Trans-Rhenan districts, and Prussia would have no moral ground for arresting a cession which would destroy its moral claim to supremacy as avowed Protector of the whole German race. There is not the slightest evidence that Count von Bismarck, unscrupulous and despotic as he may be, is not as German as the most learned Professor of Heidelberg or Berlin, and in this matter his interest is clear. The greatest obstacle to the success of his plans is the lurking suspicion that his object is not to "make Germany," but only to aggrandize Prussia—a suspicion which his consent to the sale of any German territory whatsoever would change into a certainty. It is essential, if his master is ever to be elected Emperor, that he should show himself ready to defend every inch of the Imperial dominion as zealously as he would defend any Prussian province, and the King has repeatedly and publicly pledged himself not to sur- render so much as a German village. Count von Bismarck's reply to the Liberals in the North German Parliament who asked if he intended to part with German soil was, therefore, couched in unmistakable terms. He did not wish to wound the " susceptibilities " of France unnecessarily, and the fierce language of the Liberal spokesman, Herr von Bennigsen, a Hanoverian, who seems destined to be the Prussian Liberal chief, though "worthy of a representative of the people was not diplomatic." But he trusted that no Government enter- tained a design of invading the "indubitable rights of Germany," and should any negotiations be opened, he would first of all ask the representative assemblies of Germany to take the matter into consideration. Their decision might be anticipated, and the Parliament broke up in a fever of en- thusiasm, understanding well that Count von Bismarck, while abstaining alike from menaces and boasts, forbids the annexa- tion of Luxemburg to France.
Napoleon is therefore compelled to adopt one of two equally dangerous courses. He may persist in demanding the ces- sion, on the ground that Luxemburg belongs to the House of Orange, that Prussia has no more right of suzerainty there than in Alsace or Lorraine, and that her claim to exercise one is an assumption injurious to the honour of France and menacing to the independence of all neighbouring States. In this event we shall have war, perhaps before the Exhibition closes, for the French are exasperated beyond measure at Prussian success ; and the idea so sedulously inculcated by the Emperor's friends in the Press, that Prussia, if threatened, will give way, is, we are convinced, unfounded. So strong is German feeling upon the subject, that the Emperor of Austria has found it needful formally to assure the Prussian Court that in the event of invasion it may count upon its good faith, and Bavarians are holding public meetings to sanction war for Luxemburg. The stake, too, is neither so trifling, nor the pre- text quite so dishonourable, as some journals seem to imagine. The war would be described as a campaign undertaken to defend Europe against exorbitant pretensions, to protect, as Napoleon would probably say, the "independence of States, and the security of thrones," while the stake would be neither more nor less than the frontier of the Rhine. War with Prussia is war with Bavaria under the Treaties of August, and the Emperor, if victorious, would be master Rhenish Prussia, Luxemburg, and the Palatinate besides. On the other hand, the Emperor may recede silently from his project ; but if he does, he will have received another and most severe check, the pride of France another and an exasperating wound. The sense of suffocation of which M. Forcade once complained will be intensified, and all France will perceive that Napoleon is no longer the arbiter of Europe, France no longer able to move in her own strength and independent of any ally. Neither the French nor their Emperor are likely to bear that position long without a distinct trial of strength, for which both parties are, as many believe, silently preparing their resources. The re-arming of France goes forward at a constantly accele- rating speed, while Prussia is urging the South to reorganize itself on the Prussian scheme till the Bavarian Premier tells his Parliament that if it chatters so much over his Army Bills he must perforce resign. When of two countries with conter- minous frontiers one is full of suspicion, the other of morti- fied pride, a very little incident may produce the explosion which both expect, and almost desire. Ordered out of Mexico, defeated at Nikolsburg, defied in Schleswig, resisted in Luxem- burg, abused in Auxerre, with no liberties to offer to France, and new sacrifices to demand from his people, the Emperor, to keep his seat, must accomplish some great thing. His claim to reign is Success, and in Mexico and Germany, at home and abroad, he has of late been unsuccessful.
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