Political Commentary

The Tories' uncertain tide

John Grigg

Mrs Thatcher has called upon the Tories to 'prepare for office', and according to the normal laws of politics it should, indeed, be only a matter of time before the present Government is swept out of power. For when in living memory, or even in history, have circumstances more dramatically favoured the chances of an Opposition?

With the number of unemployed still not far below a million and a half, with the inflation rate no longer falling but sharply rising, with the Government unable to get some of its most important business through the House of Commons, with the social contract apparently crumbling and industrial peace endangered—all this combined with the embarrassment of the Joe-and-Marcia show— Labour's position should now seem past praying for and the Tories' invincible. But in fact, astonishingly, it does not seem to be like that at all.

The last Gallup poll, based on interviews carried out between 9 and 14 February, indicated that the Tory lead over Labour had been halved since November. From twentyfive points it had been reduced in three months to twelve and a half-points. Moreover in the same period Liberal support had increased from 11/ to 14 per cent, and support for 'Others' from 3/ to 6/ per cent.

The 'Others' are, of course, principally the Celtic fringe parties, though the National Front can no longer, alas, be regarded as a negligible fo'rce in elections. In Scotland the last poll—compiled since the Government's guillotine defeat and published in the Sunday Mail—showed the SNP with thirtysix points, Labour with twenty-eight and the Tories with twenty-seven.

But in the country as a whole any evidence of Liberal revival is particularly disturbing for the Conservatives, because the invariable pattern in recent years has been that the Liberals have gained only when a Tory government has been in trouble. The small but distinct improvement in the Liberals' showing, as recorded by Gallup, is specially ominous at a time when all anti-Labour moderates should be rallying to the Tories.

This month should reveal political trends more clearly and the next Gallup poll wil I be awaited with some anxiety by Conservative leaders. Above all, they will recognise the immense psychological importance of winning the by-elections at Stechford and Grimsby, which thp Government may well decide to hold on 31 March (two days after the Budget).

The most recent by-election—last week's in the City of London and Westminster South—produced a swing of 9.2 per cent to the Conservatives, which compared poorly with 13.2 per cent at Workington, and even more poorly with 22.5 per cent at Walsall North, in early November 1976. But London and Westminster is a safe Tory seat with a tradition of low polls, so the comparisons are of limited value.

To capture Grimsby a swing of 7.6 per cent is needed and to capture Stechford a swing of 14.9 per cent. The February Gallup poll suggests that Labour has a good chance of holding Stechford, and a fair chance of holding Grimsby. If only Stechford is held, Labour's morale will receive a considerable fillip; if both seats are held it will be boosted sky-high.

It is worth remembering that last March Labour managed to hang on to Coventry North-West (Maurice Edelman's old seat) with a swing of under 5 per cent to the Tories, Certainly the Government was in less trouble then than it is now. But so also, in a sense, was the Opposition.

Why are the Tories not manifestly on their way to overwhelming victory at the next general election? Why should there be any doubt at all that they will form the next government? One part of the answer is that, while Mr Callaghan seems to be trying to move his party back towards the Centre, Mrs Thatcher seems to be trying to move hers away from it.

Appearances, however deceptive, are more often than not what people judge by, and in view of the sort of backing she had in the leadership contest it was vital for her to put paid to the idea that she was a doctrinaire right-winger. Even if her views were exactly those of the 'radical right'—which in truth she shares only at the level of Walter Mittyish fantasy—she needed to camouflage her commitment for the purposes of becoming prime minister. Unfortunately it is not the Walter Mitty side of her that has been camouflaged, so much as the sensible and realistic side.

After a most welcome improvement in tone and style at the party conference, things began to go badly wrong again towards the end of last year, when by-election successes and a big opinion poll lead induced dangerous euphoria. The reshuffle of the shadow cabinet was not (as I tried to explain at the time) quite the right-wing putsch that it was made out to be, but inevitably the sacking of Mr Maudling and the spectacular advancement of Mr Biffen attracted more notice than the fact that moderates were not moved from a number of key positions. The whole exercise lent itself to being described as 'a swing to the right,' and was perhaps intended to be so described.

Worse still was the double-talk about incomes policy. After gratuitously disclaiming any intention to have another statutory

policy—in a context which seemed designed to insult Mr Heath—Mrs Thatcher soon conceded in the House of Commons that she did not rule such a policy out. It would have been so much better to have said that in the first place, or to have said nothing at all. AS it was, she created a vague impression of hostility to incomes policy in general, which Mr Steel was able to exploit. Now that Mr Biffen has abruptly returned to the back benches, the great unknown monetarist has been replaced by the all too well known, Sir Keith Joseph, to whom Mrs Thatcher has at last dared to give a definite shadow portfolio. Sir Keith has been engaged in self-caricature since 1974, and his appointment cannot fail to be interpreted as a further gain for the right. In fact he is 11° more of a political extremist than his leader, but he suffers from an excess of nervous tension and from an over-intellectual approach to politics. As a debater he will make rings round Mr Varley, but for all his brilliance he is likely to prove an electoral liability to the Tories.

Finally there is the question of devolution, on which Mrs Thatcher made, perhaps, her worst mistake. The decision to enforce a vote against second reading of the Government's Devolution Bill had the effect of making the Tory Party appear less sympathetic than Labour to Scottish aspirations—an impression reinforced by the appointment of TeddY Taylor as shadow Scottish Secretary. Francis Pym, the Opposition spokesman on devolution, is both shrewd and enlightened, but he is a far less colourful figure than Mr Taylor. Moreover it is widely suspected that Mrs Thatcher's own views on the subject are closer to Mr Taylor's than to Mr Pym's.

If the Tories had maintained an attitude ni warm, if ill-defined, enthusiasm for Scottish home rule within the United Kingdom, tbeY would now be ideally placed to profit frog' the Government's discomfiture. They could fight with equal confidence against the sePar tism of the SNP and against the inadequacY and hypocrisy of the Government's devolution scheme. Instead, they are inhibited bY the knowledge that their own position is even more inadequate and hypocritical.

The present strategy of the Tory leadership makes sense only on the a5sumPti°11 that the next election will return the Con' servatives in such a landslide that they will be able to disregard all minority parties and laY down their own conditions for working with the trade unions, who will come to them, as it were, like the burghers of Calais, With halters round their necks. But it is surelY wise to count on even a bare overall rnajoritY> granted the likely strength of the SNP in the next Parliament and the new independence of the Ulster Unionists, not to mention

possible gains by the Liberals.

over

The majority which Mr Heath won

Labour in 1970 would probably not be enough to give the Tories an overall majoritY in the next Parliament. Yet a year before the 1970 election the Tories had a far more impressive showing in the opinion polls than they have now.