THE TURKISH EARTHQUAKE
By JOHN PARKER, M.P.
THE consequences of the catastrophic Turkish earthquake cannot easily be measured. The reports now available indicate a death roll running into tens of thousands and a dislocation of the life of the whole nation by the earthquake itself and by the floods which have spread destruction in the western part of the country.
The area directly affected by the earthquake lies along the Black Sea coast and extends for some four hundred miles between the ports of Samsun and Trabzon. Inland it stretches almost to Kayseri (in the very centre of the country) and Malatya (four hundred miles from the Black Sea coast) and includes the towns of Sivas, Divrik, Erzincan and Tokat. Between the towns stretches the sparsely peopled Anatolian steppe, which gives way on the coast to a belt of more productive land given up to the cultivation of the tobacco and hazel-nuts, which between them account for so consider- able a share of Turkish export trade. Scattered upon the plateau and the coastal fringe in the danger area are some five hundred villages with which communication is difficult even in the normal winter weather.
This district, which has suffered so severely, has shown considerable advance under the Republican regime. While the Ottoman Empire existed the interior of Turkey was neglected ; but under the Republic particular efforts have been made to knit the country together (mainly by railway building—the mileage of railway in the country had doubled since 1923) and to develop the resources of the central and eastern districts. Turkey's industrialisation has been Govern- ment-controlled, and factories have been built under the Government five-year plan (1933-38) not only in the Istanbul district and on the western slopes of the central plateau, which were to some extent already industrially developed, but also in the interior, where the population had previously depended solely on agriculture for a livelihood. One reason for this was social ; the Government believed that if the whole people was to advance the peasant must have his outlook broadened by contact with machinery and mechanised methods and at the same time be provided with a market for his surplus produce. The second reason was strategic ; the industrial centres would be far less vulnerable if located far inland, out of easy reach of aeroplanes even from bases on the frontiers.
Thus a new industrial centre has been established at Kayseri around a cotton mill which is the largest in the Near East ; another large textile mill has been put up at Malatya ; a cement factory has been built at Sivas and there has been some exploitation of the mineral resources in eastern Anatolia. These developments in the interior are part of the same tendency which manifested itself in the removal of the seat of government from Constantinople into the interior at Ankara, which has grown very rapidly as a result of the change.
The east presented a special problem for the Turkish Government. It was from the Kurdish tribes living in the mountains round Lake Van (in the south-east corner of the country) that the fiercest opposition to the new Turkish regime has come. By opening up this part of the country by railway and heavily subsidised air-line to Ankara and 'the west, and by providing a market for the agricultural products of the tribesmen, the Government hopes to bind it more closely to the rest of the country. The first steps in this opening up had been taken with the extension ,of the railway south-east from Sivas in the direction of Lake Van itself and by the completion (in September, 1939) of the railway from Sivas through Erzincan due east to Erzerum—the largest town in this north-eastern district.
The port of Trabzon was planned to form an outlet for the region and was already connected with the Iranian border by a motor road.
The reports indicate that much of the patient work of developing the district has been nullified by the earthquake.
Not only the huts in the villages but the concrete buildings in the towns—Government offices, schools and industrial concerns have collapsed. The town of Erzincan has been all but completely destroyed, and the other towns and remote villages of the area have suffered in varying degrees. Serious as the damage has been, however, it does not seem to have done any permanent or irreparable injury to Turkey's military position or economic resources. The vital railway line to Erzerum, which not only links the west of the country with the eastern frontier provinces but also links the Turkish railway system with that of Soviet Russia, was reported blocked at Sivas ; but a thousand men were able to clear the line within twenty-four hours and enabled relief trains to reach Erzincan and the other devastated areas in a very short time.
Few of the new industrial plants were in the towns where the damage was most extensive. Although the new Four Year Industrial Plan launched last year pro- vided for a considerable development of the ports of Samsun and Trabzon, for the building of a railway along the northern fringe of the country and for the construction of sugar refineries and meat-canning works in the districts affected by the earthquake, the execution of the plan had been in part delayed by the shortage of materials .as a result of the war in Europe and little of the work had been done. It is fortunate that the cotton-mill and other factories at Kayseri and the recently opened steel-works at Karabuk adjoining the Zonguldak coalfield on the Black Sea coast were outside the danger area. On these the economic future of Turkey depends. The ambitiously conceived capital at Ankara also appears to have escaped unscathed, although" the equally solid concrete buildings in the earthquake area were destroyed. It may well be that the earthquake will have some far-reaching effect on the architecture of the country—the wooden houses of old Istanbul have survived despite the danger from fire, because of the protection they afford against disaster in the event of an earthquake.
Despite the efforts of the past few years Turkey is far from being a rich country ; and the relief of suffering and distress as well as the reconstruction of the stricken area will impose a heavy burden upon her at a time when she is making every effort to achieve economic independence. Apart from the destruction of the towns and the damage to the ports some ships were lost in the sea ; disturbances which accompanied the earthquake and floods in Western Anatolia must have damaged the expensive irrigation schemes carried out in the valleys near Smyrna. In view of the recent history of the country, however, it is not likely that such setbacks will long prevent the Turks from con- tinuing the great work of reconstruction which they have carried out in the past fifteen years.
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