RUSSIA AND THE PAMIRS.
WHILE the newspapers are being filled with every sort of comment and conjecture in regard to the advance of Russia in the Pamirs, the one really important and authentic piece of news has passed almost without notice. We hear a great deal of what is the right line to take with Russia, of what advice we ought to give the Ameer, and of the necessity for taking this or that pre- caution on our frontier, but almost nothing as to the an- nouncement that the Chinese Ambassador to the European States has left Berlin for St. Petersburg. That is a piece of intelligence which should be used to correct a too purely national view of the Pamir incident. To talk about the Russians in the Pamirs, and leave the Chinese out of con- sideration, is, indeed, to play Hamlet with the part of the Prince of Denmark omitted. Whether the Russians have unduly encroached, and whether the position they have taken up can be maintained, is not merely a question for England and Russia. Before the final word is said, China must speak, and give her version of the respective rights of the nations whose territories meet on the " roof of the world." Thirty years ago, the Diplomatists might have imagined that China could be pushed aside, and forced to content herself with the settlement, whatever it was, arrived at by the two civilised Powers interested. No one holds such language now in regard to China, least of all England and Russia, who, in Burmah and on the Siberian frontier, know her power. The notion that China is a neglect- able quantity perished with M. Ferry's attempt to force China to be what Frenchmen held "reasonable" in regard. to Tonquin ; and no European Foreign Minister now approaches any subject in which China is interested without making up his mind that the representations of the Manchu Emperor will have to receive as much atten- tion as those of any first-class European Power. The fact, then, that China is deeply interested in preventing the Pamir region from being swallowed whole by Russia, makes the present situation on our North-West frontier very different from that which existed during the continu- ance of the Penjdeh incident. Then Russia had nothing to consider but England, and was naturally able to get a good deal of her own way. Now she will have to consider China as well as England.
In truth, China is more interested in checking the advance of Russia in this portion of Central Asia than we are. There is no risk of Russia attempting the invasion of India through the Pamirs. Generals bent on invasion choose not the line of most, but the line of least resistance, and this is certainly not to be found in the Pamirs. To take his army across chains of mountains at their thinnest, not at their thickest points, is the commander's aim. But in the Pamirs the great mountain rampart of India is at its widest. It is here that are congregated some of the highest peaks and greatest glaciers in the world. No doubt the passes from the tableland—itself some 13,000 ft. above the sea—are practicable ; but it would be a matter of the utmost difficulty for an army, with all its impedimenta, to struggle through them. In time of peace they are by no means easy, and during a war they would be useless, except for the passage of small bodies of horsemen. The Russians might amuse us by a feint in the region of the Pamirs, but the real attack, if it ever comes, will be either by Herat or else through Persia and along the sea-coast. In spite, however, of the fact that we should be in no danger were Russia to take the whole of the Pamirs, it will probably be wise for us to support the Chinese in their resistance to Russian encroachments. That their resistance will be real enough, there can be little doubt. The Chinese Empire gives up nothing, and clings persistently even to claims that seem utterly absurd to Europeans. In spite of all the -nibbling that has been going on on the part of rebels and foreigners during the last fifty years, China has prac- tically lost nothing. The history of the Russian attempt to occupy the Province of Kulja is a case in point, and shows the extraordinary tenacity of the Chinese in matters of territory. In 1865, the fertile district of Kulja, on the Turkestan frontier, revolted from China, and six years later, in 1871, the Russians, regarding it as a very valuable derelict, occupied it, believing, no doubt, that China would never venture to demand her revolted. province from its new owner. The Russians were mistaken. The Chinese stuck to their claim, and after ten years the Russians restored the province, the Russian flag, almost for the first time in its history, retreating in Asia from a position once occu- pied by it. It was the same with the rebellion in Kash- gar. It seemed for a time certain that China had lost one of her best provinces, and that Kashgar would henceforth be an independent State. The Chinese, however, though slow, are sure, and after some fifteen years were able to re- assert their authority. The Chinese, if necessary, will pursue the same policy in the Pamirs. If the Russians insist, they will, no doubt, be able to seize and hold territory now claimed by the Chinese, and for a time it will look as if they were going to be undisturbed. China will very likely not even go to war with Russia, but will apparently only protest against the conduct pursued by her neighbour. Deep, however, in the heart of the Empire a movement will begin which, after infinite delays and many incidental disasters, will end in depositing enough pig-tailed soldiers in the Pamirs to push the Russians out. We shall not know of the movement while it is in preparation, or, indeed, see any of the works. Only some day we shall hear of military incidents in the Pamirs which, whether they nominally go for Russia or for China, will be certain to end in the evacuation by Russia of the disputed territory. Probably, however, the Asiatic Department knows by this time that it is better not to force China, and will make concessions rather than occupy territory claimed in the name of the Emperor. In any case, it will be wise for us to do all we can to support China. The firmer is her hold on the Pamirs, the less likelihood will there be of Russia using them in an invasion of India.
We greatly hope that the present incident will not be patched up without a delimitation of the frontier line between'Afghanistan and Russian and Chinese Turkestan. Even if the Russians should thereby get within three days' march of English territory, it is better that the delimita- tion should take place. What we want is a fixed and certain frontier. If Russia marched with us on the North- West of India, as she marches with Prussia on the Baltic, we should be far more secure than we are with the present ragged frontier, where every wild tribesman carries with him the possibility of firing a train that may set the world on fire. With a fixed frontier, we should know that, the moment Russia crossed it, she meant war. As it is, we are liable every six months to get into a state of alarm over some act which, in reality, may be perfectly justi- fiable. We do not forget, of course, that the Pamirs are a very difficult region in which to carry out a delimitation of frontier ; still, we presume that, given the will, a way will be found. The Pamirs are a plateau some 13,000ft. above the sea. Across this plateau run ridges of mountain, rising some 5,000 ft. above it, and forming broad, trench-like valleys, to which the generic name " Pamir " is given. The climate of these Pamirs is terribly severe in winter, but the tribesmen who live near them drive their flocks there for summer pasturage. Each tribe is said to have its fixed pastures, and the Russians will, it is rumoured, claim as Russian territory all the land browsed over by the goats of Kirghiz, under Russian protection. Whether this is the proper principle of delimitation we do not pretend to say ; but, at any rate, it might suffice as a basis for negotiation. All that con- cerns England in the matter is to see that her Afghan allies are not robbed of anything worth having, and to support the Chinese. A good understanding with China is essential to the holders of India, and the present incident appears to offer a good opportunity for cementing that understanding by a little judicious support.
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