Luck of the Gringos
when the Contadora Group of coun- tries put forward their four recom- mendations for resolving the conflicts afflicting Central America, both the US and Nicaragua, rather surprisingly, re- sponded with enthusiasm. The four sugges- tions were indeed unexceptionable: first, let us get rid of all outside military advisers (that means, you, Cuba, and you, Uncle Sam), let us then ensure that a substantial reduction of armed forces takes place all round (that means you, Nicaragua), let us then extract a firm commitment from every party not to interfere in anyone else's affairs (that means all of you: the US, Cuba, Nicaragua, Honduras), and let us also endeavour to hold free elections in every country (that means you, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras). Washington, anxious not to be seen to be wielding the big stick in its own backyard, enthusiastically endorsed these proposals. Nicaragua signalled its consent by promptly calling an election for 4 Novem- ber, one year ahead of schedule, and by making clear to the Salvadorean guerrilla forces based in Managua that they will have to shift out. But the Sandinist rulers stipulated that their adherence to the Contadora proposals were conditional upon the US also carrying out both the letter and the spirit of the recommenda- tions. The Reagan administration began to get cold feet. Might not the Sandinists use the election to demonstrate an earnest of intent to follow the Contadora guidelines, but solely for the purpose of pressurising Washington to fulfill its side of the bargain and withdraw its military advisers from El Salvador and Honduras? Would not the Sandinists then have a clear run for their money? And suppose the election were really fair and the Sandinists won, might that not be interpreted as an endorsement of revolution in Central America? But next Sunday's election has proved a fiasco for the Sandinists. Not only has none of the Contras accepted the government offers of amnesty, laid down their arms and taken part in the campaign, but even the main opposition alliance has refused to stand. So on Sunday the people of Nicaragua will have to choose between the Sandinists and an assortment of Marxist-Leninist parties. President Reagan can 'breathe again.
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