From Don Bundy Sir: We all hope that your cover
story is true. But Rian Malan's polemic is little more than a selective view of the precision of estimates, and has as much urgency and reality for people affected by Aids as a debate about angels and pins: is the impact of Aids very, very bad, or just very bad?
By choosing unpublished data on teacher deaths to support his thesis, he illustrates the real problem of estimating Aids mortality. After quoting his source that 'most countries do not even collect data on deaths' he goes on to use this questionable data to make fine distinctions about mortality rates. In my own experience of just one gravely affected country — and it is worth emphasising that not all countries are affected similarly — there were three separate and widely different estimates of teacher mortality from which to choose to prove one's point.
Conjuring up a bogeyman of an 'Aids establishment' bent on the 'manipulation of fear' is another fine example of selectivity. While alluding to World Bank statistics to illustrate this sinister campaign, Malan omits to mention that they come from a recent World Bank report entitled A Window of Hope. This report emphasises the positive message that even in the worstaffected countries nearly all schoolchildren are uninfected and have every chance of growing up free of Aids. There is hope for Africa. But it depends on reducing poverty and providing universal basic education, not playing with statistics.
Don Bundy
The World Bank, Washington DC, USA
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