DOMESTIC POLITICS.
- With regard to domestic politics, it is easier perhaps to discern the possibilities of the situation. The position is one which certainly suggests continued unsettlement, at all events for the early part of the year. We are working at the present time under a Minority Govern- ment, and not only does that in itself spell a measure . of uncertainty, but early in January the loyalty of the Liberals' to the Labour Government seems likely to he severely tested by the introduction of the Trades Disputes Arnendment Bill. At all events, a General Election during the year must be reckoned among the possi- bilities, if not the probabilities, and that in itself indicates a degree of unsettlement detrimental to business.
Not only so, but assuming that the election resulted in a return of a Labour Government with a larger majority, apprehensions of Socialistic legislation would then, presumably, have a disturbing effect upon financial and commercial activities. If, on the other hand, a Conservative Government were to be returned with a working majority over all Parties, it is probable that the first effect would be a general rise in securities, but on the other hand, in view of changes which would then be looked for in fiscal policy, it .is quite possible that general business might , be disturbed " for a time by the uncertainties of the position, and possibly by some rush of foreign goods in apprehension of import duties being imposed. 'In saying this I am not expressing a view one way or the other with regard to tariffs and fiscal policy, but am simply trying to indicate that in the domestic political outlook for the current year there is a -good deal which' at present suggests conditions detrimental to an immediate `revival 'in' actual corn. - - (Continued on page 80.)
_ Finance—Public and. Private .
(Ccnainued from page 28.) increial activity, though it can, of course, be admitted that the return of a Conservative Government might to some extent stimulate a return of general confidence, thereby partly offsetting any disturbed influence occa- sioned by tariff uncertainties. But whether the present political administration is changed or not, I think it would be unwise to reckon upon any immediate pro- nolinced revival in trade for the reason that the causes contributing to the present prolonged depression are so numerous and complex that they cannot be overcome in a month or two, even though helped by greater con- fidence and optimism with regard to the future. .
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