THE MARSH LIGHTS OF THE RUHR. F RANCE is advancing further
into the bog, as we feared she would. It is the old story of men who venture upon unknown and treacherous ground in the dark. They see what looks like a light ahead, and even though they may sink in up to the knees they tell them- selves that as the light is there it is better to go on than to go back. After all, they think, they are probably already through the worst of it and after a few more flounderings they are sum to find themselves on ground that will carry their weight and thenceforward it will be easy going until they reach warmth and comfort and good fare. But the light always keeps its distance. The traveller is lucky if he gets out of the bog with no worse injury than exhaustion and a soaking.
This metaphor does not apply only to whatever expecta- tions France may have of making money out of the Ruhr adventure. M. Poincare has already been demanding large credits and there seems to be no chance at all that France will get back as much as she spends. But it is said that all this is so obvious, and the story of the- bog is so old, that France has no more illusions than we have about the possibility of exacting reparations by occupying the Ruhr. Her intention, then, it is rumoured, is quite different ; and certainly there is evidence in support of the rumour that France without nominally annexing the Ruhr will sit down there and administer it until she has recouped herself. M. Poincare himself has said as much. But this, of course, means that though the word annexation may never be used France might stay in the Ruhr till the Greek Kalends. In that case she will inflict a wound upon Europe which will be kept open so long as the present policy holds. There will be no hope of peace. The Ruhr scheme is in itself a repudiation of the whole idea of organ- izing peace which is embodied in the League of Nations.
For some time to come, no doubt, Germany could not retaliate with any hope of doing so effectually, but in another generation there would be a new war. Germany will never reconcile herself to the loss of her province. The marsh lights will lead France on from one military step to another to make her position "secure," and the end will be not security but the old order of war and intermittent armed truces for the whole of Europe.
Now let us look how far the matter has already gone in the Ruhr. What is called "a severe stage of siege," which is indistinguishable from martial law, has been declared by the French. The principal German directors of the mines, including Herr Fritz Thyssen, have been heavily fined and removed. The miners are winning coal sulkily where they are working at all. The railway strike is really serious and few trains are moving. The Germans have broken down the electric system of direction and the French are manipulating the coal trains by slow and laborious methods. A Customs barrier has been erected so as to isolate the Ruhr from the rest of Germany, and though food is no doubt admitted freely through the barrier, prices all over the Ruhr are soaring upwards. The mark has plunged farther downwards and the franc follows in its wake. Industrial life generally in the Ruhr is paralysed. Mean- while, General Degoutte has issued a statement to the effect that the moderation which the French have so far displayed must not be mistaken for weakness. If the passive resistance by the Germans is continued, he said, the French will adopt much more drastic methods. He has also ordered the French troops to use force to those Germans who are detected. in acts of _sabotage, so that there is all the material for conflicts even though such conflicts do not form part of a deliberate policy on 'either side.
But that is not. all. In addition to taking single- handed action in the Ruhr, France, now acting as the inspirer of the Reparations Commission, has induced the Commission to declare Germany in general default.
That is to say, all the negotiations about Reparations which have taken place during the past two years have been wiped off the slate and the Commission reverts to the former demands made upon Germany. Yet these demands have been admitted by France herself to be impossible. M. Poincare confessed that a mora- torium was necessary for Germany, even though he would not agree to the kind of moratorium proposed by Sir John Bradbury. If France means to stay in the Ruhr till the sums now demanded are paid she will be there, if not for ever, at least till the next war comes. De- prived of her principal mineral resources Germany will, of course, be less able than ever to pay. As the facts make themselves more and more felt in Germany opposition may be expected to intensify and the French will have to send more troops and more railwaymen.
All this is being done in the name. of the Treaty. It is necessary to say plainly that if French jurists and politicians can reconcile it with the letter of the Treaty, it is certainly a flat contradiction of the spirit. France is, in fact, conducting an anti-European policy.
The situation has compelled us to draw a dark picture, but we are by no means without hope. We know perfectly well that the mass of French people are not in favour of speculative adventures, but are far-seeing and very careful of their money. Even from the point of view of physical security against Germany they will soon be asking themselves whether any security worth the name is really to be obtained by sacrificing the friendships which France used to enjoy. Great Britain is still the sincere friend of France, though the British Government strongly disapprove of what France is doing, but hardly the same thing can be said of America. America has expressed an impatient annoyance with expressive and unmistakable gestures which imply the virtual snapping of very ancient ties. It would be lamentable if the break should really come. For more than a hundred years every British visitor to America has been aware of the affection and admiration which the American nation as a whole felt for France. "Stop your militarism and then we may be able to help you, but not before," represents the present attitude of America towards the Continent of Europe. The bringing of America into any general international arrangement will be further off than ever if Germany is compelled, as Mr. Aubrey Herbert said in a letter to the Times of Tuesday, to choose between becoming the economic slave of France and joining her fortunes with those of Russia.
It is precisely because the dangers are so great that we believe that a majority of the French people will want to draw back before it is too late. When the change of opinion makes itself felt in France, as it is bound to do sooner or later, there ought to be means ready prepared for France to grasp at and save herself.
It is the part of her friends to supply these. It has been suggested that there might be a reference of the whole problem of the Ruhr and Reparations to the league of Nations, and it is with great satisfaction that we find the Times supporting this proposal. As we said recently, Great Britain cannot herself take the initiative in this matter, for her action would be mis- understood by France, but she can well help Mr. Branting, who is said to be preparing the way. Further, it seems to us that Great Britain can do two definite things : (1) We can promise France that we will give her the most generous possible treatment, possibly even to the point of cancelling her debt to us, if she cares to bring her Ruhr policy to an end. It would be worth our while to buy, so to speak, a final settlement of the Repara- tions question even at a high price. But if France goes on keeping Europe in a state of turmoil and, incidentally, ruining our hopes of a trade recovery, we shall not be able to afford to remit debts. (2) We could once more offer to France a solemn guarantee, even though America may not choose to do so, that we will help her in the event of unprovoked aggression by Germany. We, of course, profoundly sympathize with France in her desire for security, and we do not wonder that insecurity haunts her after all the sufferings inflicted upon her by Germany in the past. But as it is, France, in the name of getting security, is getting none. She is closing against herself two doors—one through which might come promises of military help against an aggressive Germany from those who desire to be her friends, and the other• through which might come financial succour (an ex- tremely important matter from the point of view of national security) in the shape of cancelled debts. Is there any hope that France will listen ? The French Government are disinclined to do so at the moment, but we believe that they will soon be constrained to reflect another and very different opinion forced upon them by their countrymen.
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