TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE CONTINUED PAUSE. THE Pause continues, and its effects grow worse. The six Powers are so distrustful of each other that they dare not confide the pacification of Crete to any one of them, and cannot even appoint a vigorous Governor- General with a guard, and. consequently the island advances daily nearer to its ruin. Colonel Vassos and his Greek troops, who have occupied the wonderful mountain fastness of Sphakia, which has, we believe, never been taken, except by treachery, are neither attacked nor threatened, except on paper; but the Cretans and the Bashibazouks maintain an endless and aimless war of skirmishes, in which the fierce islanders would easily win, but that whenever they defeat the Turks the international Admirals deprive them by shelling of the fruits of their victory. The pretext is that the Powers are menaced in the towns they have occupied ; but the advantage accrues not to the Powers, but to the Turks, who will not in their fury and exultation even recognise safe-conducts given by Consuls to the insurgent leaders. All kinds of proposals for a settlement are made, but the Powers cannot agree upon any of them —probably, as regards Germany and Russia, do not intend to agree—while the islanders themselves very naturally point to the continued activity of the Bashibazouks as proof positive that the Powers are cheating them, and that if they accept autonomy under Turkish suzerainty they will continue to be murdered, as the Servians con- tinued to be murdered under the same arrangement. Commerce, of course, has stopped in the island, the sowing of crops has been impeded, and the islanders are being taught, by the strong argument of shells thrown at them, that Greece is their only friend, and that Europe, for some mysterious interest of its own, desires their pacifica- tion, which means, says every Cretan, their subjugation to Asiatic ruffianism. The whole scene at Canea is most dis- creditable, not to the philanthropy of Europe, for Europe as a whole scorns philanthropy, but to its competence to perform any federal act whatever. Lord Salisbury, it is true, says it is a federation ; but if it is so its model is the old Germanic Diet, which possessed every variety of power except that of doing anything effective. The old Envoys in the Diet used to sit and discuss just as the Ambassadors do now, and draw up documents, while im- portant events went on outside without awaiting their decisions. On the mainland the situation, though different, because there are no Admirals to throw shells at the wrong people, is hardly more encouraging. The Turkish and Greek armies face each other on the Thessalian frontier, and day by day fresh supplies are forwarded to them both, so that war-correspondents report them both to be eager for the fray. The heir to the monarchy has taken command of the Greeks, but does not declare war ; and Edhem Pasha has returned from Constantinople to the front with "instructions," but does not declare war. Each declares that he will fight if the Powers cannot make an arrangement, but each waits for the other in the hope that the odium of formally breaking the European peace may attach to the other side. It is, however, felt on all hands that so strained a situation cannot last, and in every European capital everybody except the financiers expects at least a " localised " war by April 6th. So far, therefore, the Concert has failed in all its avowed objects, for it has not pacified Crete, it has not humiliated Greece, and it has brought war upon European soil measurably nearer.
The failure is due to the three Emperors, and it is an object of the highest political interest to pierce the mystery of their policy. The most desperate efforts are made to maintain secrecy, but we can hardly doubt that what- ever it was originally, it is now to allow a localised war to break out in the hope that Turkey will be able to read Greece a tremendous lesson, and compel her to throw herself upon the pity of Europe. If she were beaten, and Thessaly invaded, she would not only be obliged to give up Crete, but to implore the protection of Europe, either active or diplomatic. None of the three Emperors care one straw for the miseries which will follow a defeat of Europeans by Asiatics, and the consequent release of the Turkish bloodthirstiness throughout the Sultan's dominions. The German Emperor wants Greece to be punished, as a sacrifice to his pride, and out of hatred of his kinsfolk for disregarding his advice. The Austrian Emperor wants quiet, and will witness the prostration of Greece with pleasure, because if he ever reaches Salonica a weakened Greece would be a manageable, perhaps even a useful, enclave in the vast Hapsburg dominion. The Russian Emperor wishes Greece punished for its independence, for its tendency to enlist Greeks throughout the world, who are an anti-Russian force, and in order, if Turkey wins, to have an excuse for attacking, and possibly absorbing, her which the Western Powers would be unable to reject. Neither Great Britain nor France could attack Russia if she advanced her soldiers, who are already gathered in Southern Russia and Russian Armenia, in order to compel Turkey to let go its grip on Greece, or to punish the massacres which, if Turkey is victorious, will inevitably follow; and once exempt from Western interference Russia is mistress of the situation. She has only to square Austria to be able to deal with Turkey as she pleases, and the belief that Austria will refuse to be squared is probably not entertained by Russian statesmen. It must not be forgotten that Russian ambition is not limited to Constantinople, but that, although her people fix their regard upon the sacred city, her rulers have never forgone the hope of dominating' the whole of the old Eastern Empire of Rome, which; once reduced to order, would, they believe, produce a splendid revenue, which would open a new world to the- overcrowded agricultural population of Russia, and which' would carry Russian dominion to open water in two continents at once. It may be said that this view of her policy is dreamy ; but if it is not true, where is the true view to be sought ? That she is hostile to Greece is as certain as that she is not, and cannot be, sincerely friendly' to Turkey. She is playing in some way for her own hand, and she is accustomed to play for her own hand on a very. large territorial scale. Of course, a Greek victory would be an interruption to these plans ; but Russian Generals. do not believe in Greeks and do believe in Ottomans, while the interruption, even if the Duke of Sparta swept back Edhem Pasha, might not be very serious. If one is strong enough one can occupy a kingdom in order to defend it, and with Turkey defeated in Macedonia, with Bulgaria at her disposal, with the Black Sea Fleet lying ready to move six hours after the receipt of instructions,. and with two hundred thousand men ready for action in- Russian Armenia, the Czar is too strong to be opposed by any Turkish forces on the spot. England and France could oppose him ; but neither will fight again for Turkey, even though Turkey were about to be replaced by a more formidable despotism, and the occupation both of Con- stantinople and Asia Minor would be within the domain of practical Russian politics.
It is useless, however, to discuss possibilities while nations are still awaiting the signal, and we prefer to utilise the Pause in order to point out how strong even. feeble States are for war when they mean to wage it. Greece is a very little Power, with only hall the population of Belgium, with a bankrupt Treasury, a worthless credit, and only inexperienced soldiers at her disposal; yet she places on her frontier an army as strong as that with which we reconquered India in 1858, stronger than that with which Frederick the Great fought and won the great battle of Zorndorf. That army is untried, no doubt, but it is well drilled, well supplied, and under a discipline which, at all events, produces obedience. On the other side, Turkey is a State which is the sport of Powers, who take away her provinces almost at will. Her Treasury is bank- rupt, half her population is seditious, and corruption has eaten deeply into every department ; yet Turkey can pro.- duos in a few weeks, without denuding her provinces, an army of one hundred and fifty thousand men, and her supply services, though rotten with dishonesty, forward with automatic precision all necessary supplies. Turkish engineers are not greatly in repute, yet, if the corre- spondents may be trusted, they have constructed on the extreme verge of the Empire a second Plevna, almost without an effort. Which of the two Powers is the stronger at a given point we do not pretend to guess, though we incline reluctantly to believe that the advantage is with the Ottoman ; but both alike afford philosophers this lesson, that the last element of vitality which dies away in a nation is its fighting power. There are no statesmen left in Turkey, but there are soldiers ; there is no money for roads, but there is plenty for munitions ; nobody reverences the civil law, but at the first call to arms the peasantry quit their work and the artisans their employments to swarm into the ranks of an army which they know will never be paid, and, whatever its fortune on any given day, will be defeated in the end. It is a curious spectacle, and not one altogether full of hope for the future. It looks very much as if war were still the operation which most, enlisted the hearts of men, which produced the most self-sacrifice, and which called out in men not only their latent energies but their latent abilities. There are few things which you can teach a Turk, but he learns the trade of war rapidly, and with singular thoroughness. Does any one know any object but war for which a country like Spain would have the strength and the resolution to send two hundred thousand of her healthiest citizens to do in a detestable climate, and under most painful conditions, work in which they have but little heart?
Previous page
