THE PROGRESS OF EVENTS IN FRANCE.
ANDRIEITX failed to turn out the Government on • Thursday by his motion condemning the adminis- tration of Tonquin; but the contest between the Repub- licans and the " Boulangists "—that is, the united body of the discontented—is rapidly growing hotter. M. Andrieux secured 214 votes to 280, and only failed to obtain a majority because the Ministry, through M. Constans, gave the most pacific assurances. He showed that the expense of the occupation of Tonquin did not diminish, that the natives were unanimously opposed to it, that French merchants' lives were not safe just outside the capital, and that the French Army had lost in four years thirty thousand men, a whole corps d'ariaje, in killed and invalided. The logical deduction was to abandon Tonquin, but M. .Andrieux did not draw this ; and when M. Constans, who had been Governor- General, promised that the troops should be withdrawn to the coast, that their number should be greatly diminished, and that the Tonquinese should be left to themselves as far as possible, the Chamber had nothing to do but pass on to the Order of the Day. The Ministry is, therefore, safe for a moment ; but it is aware that this is but a respite, and it is gradually resolving that the national danger, the spread of Boulangism, requires deter- mined measures. It has already taken one which may lead to very serious consequences. The extraordinary incident at Obock, of which we have given the details elsewhere, has pro- duced a profound impression upon French politicians. They all, without distinction of party, desire an alliance with Russia, and they all consider that Admiral Olry, in firing on the Russian immigrants at Obock, pushed the rights of France in an extreme and most inexpedient way. He was within his legal right, for the Cossack immigrants were armed and refused to recognise French jurisdiction ; but in resorting to bombardment instead of arrest, he acted. with needless violence towards the subjects of a most friendly Power. So keen was this feeling, that although the Russian Government did not complain, and, indeed, disavowed the Cossacks, the French Foreign Office pub- lished on Wednesday a wordy explanation, and on Thurs- day put up a friendly Deputy to ask a question which enabled the Foreign Minister, M. Spuller, to suggest that the whole Chamber should, in view of the "painful incident" at Obock, publicly vote "an expression of its esteem for the Russian people." This was actually done unanimously ; but it did not content the members of the Patriotic League, who hope everything from the Russian alliance. That association contains two hundred and forty thousand members, and its Paris branch is believed to dispose of more than fifty thousand young men, all armed with revolvers, all passed soldiers, and all devoted to General Boulanger. Its chiefs thought they saw an opportunity, and on Thursday pub- lished a manifesto protesting against the shedding of Russian blood by French hands, and calling for a sub- scription to maintain the wives and families of the Russian dead. M. Constans, the new Minister of the Interior, desires nothing better than an open conflict with Boulangism, and availing himself of the law which makes the publication of any document calculated to produce a conflict with a foreign Power a penal offence, he issued an order that the League should be dissolved, and arrested those of its chiefs who were not protected by their inviolability as Deputies. The debate upon this incident will be furious, as the Government will be accused of yielding to Italian dictation about Obock, and to German dictation in sup- pressing the Patriotic League ; and however the vote may 0.o, the only powerful organisation in Paris, the only one, that is, which, in the absence of troops, could overpower both the Assembly and the mob, has been placed in irre- concilable conflict with the authorities. That is a situation which, though it will not of itself produce collision, greatly increases the tension, and may compel General Boulanger, who must protect his followers, to reconsider the strong reasons which impel him to await quietly the verdict of the elections.
His adversaries, with a rashness characteristic of all French parties in turn, are determined to give him excuses for saving that the elections will not be free. They have already abolished scrutin de hide, a meaningless step, as it does not prevent the issue of a list of nominees to be accepted one by one in each arrondissement, and they are now about to pass a Bill destroying the right of any candidate to stand for two seats at once. That measure is intended to prevent General Boulanger from posing as the candidate elected by half France ; but it can have no practical operation. The General wants Deputies as sup- porters, not a momentary theatrical triumph which would cost himself and his party more than £500,000,—that is, the expense of two elections for two hundred and fifty separate seats. Apart altogether from bribery, the cost of a "county seat" in France is nearly .22,000, the candidate being com- pelled to pay large sums for cards, bill-posters, circulars, and addresses sent to every elector. The Bill, therefore, will not affect General Boulanger, while it will interfere -with that theoretic right to choose representatives at will for which Frenchmen have always contended as a privilege inherent in democracy. M. Cl4menceau sees that clearly, and is about to present an alternative Bill, which certainly does not raise one's impression of his far-sightedness as a statesman. He intends, according to the Times' corre- spondent in Paris, to propose that the Chamber shall disqualify by statute all existing Members from sitting in the next Assembly. There is absolutely no reason for such a proposal, though there is revolutionary precedent for it, except that it will exclude General Boulanger from the polls ; and it will irritate the selfishness of every Deputy who thinks his seat tolerably safe ; but we may let that pass. Such a measure would be absolutely inept even if it were carried, would, indeed, play directly into General Boulanger's hands. The men of local influence pledged to resist him would all be disqualified, and the field would be clear for his nominees, who, because they were his nominees, would be the most distinguished and visible of candidates. If they were in a majority, he would become President of the Republic • and it is the Presidency, and not an opyortunity of making speeches in a Parliament which he condemns as radically incompetent to govern France, that the new Pretender is seeking.
All these incidents taken together tend to show that the Republican leaders greatly dread the popular vote, and that they are casting about for means to break General Bonlanger's power before the elections. They are said to be thinking of a prosecution ; but that requires the assent of the Chamber, and would, with a friendly populace seething round the Court, be nothing but a huge advertisement. M. Constans, determined as he is, would hardly venture to arrest the General, and so deprive every Deputy of his most valuable privilege ; and gradually, by the exhaustion of devices, he and his colleagues will be driven to the only practicable one, a Bill enabling the head of the State to expel Pretenders, as he already can the members of the families which have reigned in France. That would be perfectly logical, for General Boulanger can hardly assert that his claim to live in France is better than that of the representative of the Bourbons, while he cannot deny that he is a great deal more dangerous to the Republic than the Comte de Paris. Expulsion, too would actually get- rid for a time of the dangerous personage, as none of the other plans would do, and would prove, moreover, to the Boulangists that their favourite was not quite so strong as they imagined. As for the sickening injustice of banishing a candidate because too many constituencies desire him, we do not suppose any Frenchman of either party ever gives that matter a serious thought. But then, expulsion cannot be decreed without debate ; debate would give time for resistance, if it were only hours ; and in that time an armed struggle might be carried through and might be lost. Behind all other obstacles to decisive action rests the fundamental one that M. Constans does not know whether the rifle-carriers would or would not fire on their favourite General on behalf of the party which took Tonquin, "where we conscripts perish of malaria and heat." We never predict about Paris, but the air there is growing hot.
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