Invisible mending
ONE cure for the balance of payments would be for this country to give up trading in goods. We should then show some rather decent figures — but not as good as we thought they were. The scaling down of the surplus on invisibles' (trade in ser- vices) is a salutary reminder not to take them for granted, or to assume that they will always go onwards and upwards. Against May's deficit of £1,705 million on our trade in goods is set an 'invisible' surplus of £500 million, down from the £600 million a month which had become a regular fixture. Our deficit on tourism has been widening and the City's overseas earnings, largely in dollars, have gone less far when converted into pounds. I can see other obstacles ahead. Insurance and banking lead the City's earnings, but the insurance cycle is turning down, and there have been casualties among the interna- tional banks, with money and jobs lost. The British Invisible Exports Council is still sanguine. It expects the City to show a surplus of more than £10 billion for 1987 (the figures are not out yet) and again this year, while the private sector as a whole, which showed a surplus of £14 billion in 1987, this year is expected to beat it. You object that twelve times a monthly surplus of £500 million does not multiply out to £14 billion? Ah, but the monthly figure lumps in what the Government spends abroad. The BIEC is now pressing for more and clearer figures. They at least ought to be visible.
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