TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE ELECTIONS IN GERMANY.
THE result of the first ballot in the German elections is a partial triumph for the Emperor. The impassioned appeals of Prince Billow and Herr Dernburg have succeeded in calling out a mass of voters who had previously avoided going to the poll. , Moreover, the many thousands of Radicals who have up till now called themselves Socialists as the best way of protesting against absolutism have been disappointed with the results hitherto attained by the party, and have either abstained front voting or have voted for different factions of the political Liberals. The total result is that the Socialists, whom the Emperor hates, and has frequently denounced as enemies of the State, instead of sweeping the constituencies, as they more than half hoped, have lost a fifth of their strength in the Reichstag and their amazing position in Saxony,—the only one of the federated kingdoms in which they were supreme. This is a heavy blow to the party, for it not only diminishes their weight in the Reichstag, but depiives them of the charm with their constituencies which they derived from the popular expectancy of their increasing power. The Emperor is therefore content, and even joyous, and has consented to a decree removing the worst features of the law of lese-majesia. In future no prosecu- tions will take place under that law unless for gross and deliberate offences.
The Emperor's pleasure is natural, for after all his is a military Monarchy, and it was his position as "War Lord" which was threatened by the vote of the recent Parliament. But we are not sure that his Majesty's appreciation of the elections is not a little short-sighted. William II. is fighting not only for his colonial policy, but for his ultimate right to control the State without interfer- ence from Parliament, and that right has grown weaker rather than stronger during the struggle. The electors have no doubt agreed to give him the money he wants for South Africa ; but in so agreeing they have established past all question their own legal right to the ultimate control of the finances. They might have' refused. The very appeal for their vote proves that this is admitted by the Government itself; and in the admission their right to interfere with the Executive is, so to speak, conse- crated and established. They may not be able constitu- tionally to dismiss a Minister, but they are able to modify or to reject a policy,—for no policy of any importance can be carried out without expenditure, and the expenditure is in their hands. If a Minister asks them for funds and they refuse them, he is clearly a Minister paralysed ; and, however much a favourite at Court, he can retain power only on condition of not pressing the demand to which the people object. The Emperor can only order a Dissolu- tion when he hopes for a verdict in his favour, and his agents must therefore conciliate the electors, which means substantially that they must advise policies of which the electors approve. That is Constitutional government, not absolutism, and Constitutional government which lacks only time to become systematised, and, so to speak, irresistible by any individual, however highly placed. The British Constitution was made that way,—at this moment the King can in theory dismiss any person in his service except the Judges, and so bring the whole machinery of the State to a standstill until his policy is accepted. No one can say how far or on what occasions the Emperor's wish will carry a majority of his people; but it is clear that while the existing Constitution lasts that majority can refuse to permit the expression of his will in overt act. They can, for example, refuse to continue the bunt for colonies, as pledging the national fortune too deeply without any adequate return. They will not, it would appear, do that particular thing. for they are a proud people, and they desire expansion if it can be obtained without too much sacrifice; but they are able to do it if they please, which is the essence of Constitutional government as opposed to autocracy.
It must not be forgotten, moreover, that the Emperor has entirely failed to break up the second line of the opposing forces. The Centre returns to the Reichstag a. little stronger than before. This is interpreted in this country to mean that this party is entirely governed by religious influences, and holds together for ends with which political objects have only an indirect connexion. We are inclined to doubt the accuracy of this view. If the Government were attacking Roman Catholicism, the Centre would subordinate everything to what the party would consider the cause of religious liberty ; but in any other contingency the Roman Catholics are Germans, as the Protestants are. They do not want to be overtaxed because their Church looks to Rome for orders, nor because they believe in the Mass do they feel inclined to submit to auto- cratic government in civil affairs. They are, in fact, for the most part South Germans, and over South Germans the Welipolitik exercises very little attraction. They think the profit of colonial markets, whenever profit is secured, will go to the active manufacturers of the North, and only value transmarine prestige as increasing slightly their pride in their race and flag. Their electors hope more from the common Parliament than from the common Emperor, and have, in fact, approved the action of their representatives in refusing money demanded as necessary to the defence of the colonies in South-West Africa. They may, of course, have been more influenced than Protestants by the recent stories of cruelties, because those stories are guaranteed by Roman Catholic missionaries ; but still, if they had wished strongly for colonies, they would have accepted the persuasions of the Colonial Minister, Herr Dernburg, who is an optimistic person, and declares that the existing colonies may yet be rendered very profitable. The Emperor, it is obvious from the recent distribution of honours, thinks these speeches highly effective, but in the Roman Catholic districts of the Empire they must, to judge by the returns, have fallen very flat. Although, therefore, his Majesty may feel that his active policy has on the whole been approved, he will be apt to pursue it with more caution, and perhaps in different directions,—an alteration in his course which will be facilitated by the fact that he is no longer stirred to act violently by a contention with his people. He and they are in agreement, more or less, and he can therefore act from calculation, and not from that fierce impulse to do striking things which has so often carried him astray. This is reassuring for Europe, which does not fear the large and well-considered designs of the German Emperor, but only those movements of which, like the telegram to Mr. Kruger, hq has not sufficiently weighed either the motives or the consequences. The Emperor is a man of great intellectual strength, somewhat impaired by the conviction that a Monarch, to be strong under the existing conditions of European feeling, must not only seek the interest of his people, but must excite their admiration by visible and striking poses. Something of the scene-painter, thinks William II., is now necessary to the political artist,—a dangerous impression, which the result of this Election may remove, or at least diminish.
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