Opinion polls
Sir: Allan Massie (5 March) seems to have an obsession with opinion polls. They are not entirely to be ignored, but they only tell part of the story. In the first place they ask a hypothetical question, which only ceases to be hypothetical in the closing stages of a general election campaign; secondly respondents do not always tell the truth, since they may have their doubts about the confidentiality of the whole procedure. Given that most working-class Scots now live under the threat of redundancy at any time — even if that threat will only materialise for a proportion of them, and though redundancies are often negotiated between unions and management — some people may think it safe to say they are going to vote Labour, even if they have other intentions.
In fact, where actual voting has taken place over the past few months, the SNP has done considerably better than opinion polls suggest, Labour slightly worse, and the Tories and the Alliance considerably worse, but with important local variations in every case. The SNP in particular seems to be consolidating in its stronger areas (e.g. Angus, Moray, parts of Renfrewshire) while it has lost ground in Edinburgh, where it was relatively weak even in 1974. Its very creditable performance in Queen's Park was achieved with a minimum work- force — with the steady turn-out of 100-150 activists per night recorded at Hillhead, the seat might well have been taken.
Anthony J. C. Kerr
52 Castlegate, Jedburgh, Roxburghshire
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