THE ATTITUDE OF FRANCE.
THE inner feelings of the French peasantry have again become matters of serious importance to all Europe. It is evident that the upper classes and the Parisians, excited by
the success before Sontay, are rapidly giving themselves up to chauvinism, and are urging, rather than checking, the " for- ward " policy of the Premier. Exasperated by the failures of the last few years, and distrustful of all leaders, those French- men who are audible are childishly elated with their first gleam of success in the field. One writer declares that " Sontay has avenged Sedan," and although he was doubt- less betrayed into that absurdity by the wish to make an
alliterative mot, the tone of all his confreres has percept- ibly altered for the worse. No pretence is now made of willingness to be contented with less than all Tonquin. The idea of English mediation, which has in the course of these negotiations been welcomed, rejected, and welcomed again, is now scouted, with irritating expressions of disdain for this country and its " commercial preoccupations." We are told that we only want Hainan, which most Englishmen never heard of, and that Lord Granville must not mediate until he is asked by France. The possibility of Chinese interference is scoffed at, and the Marquis Tseng is henceforward, it is said, to be treated " as if China did not exist." What is more serious still, the Government is as elate as its adulators. The Havas Agency is the most strictly controlled undertaking in France, and it is very difficult to believe that the astounding telegram published on Thursday, and nominally sent from London, was not drawn up in Paris, and at least sanctioned by the Foreign Office. If that is the case, M. Ferry, so far from avoiding war with China, is ready to pick a new quarrel, and intends—as, indeed, the Re'publique Francaise admits— to demand a "pecuniary indemnity " for the " aggressive attitude " assumed by China in Tonquin. Such a demand would be worthy only of Mr. Layard's Pasha, who first requisi- tioned fowls for his suite from the unhappy villagers near Bagdad, and then charged them for " the wear-and-tear of his teeth " because the fowls were tough, but we are by no means certain that an idea of the kind is not afloat in official circles. There are ominous references to " material guarantees," and in the present temper of the Ministry, the Island of Hainan, which dominates the Gulf of Tonquin and would support itself, may seem a most desirable acquisition. This can be obtained only from China ; and a quarrel, in which the French would occupy the island, and defend it with their Fleet alone, may seem the readiest method of acquiring it. There are very dreamy projects floating before some French minds. If China does not fight, or England interpose, every- thing, it is said, is possible ; and men are already found to declare that all Madagascar should be at once annexed, "because the Hovas, if they sign the treaty ceding the country of the Sakalaves, will not observe it "; and that a true Indo-Chinese Empire should be founded by France, an empire which should realise M. Dupuis's project of absorbing Siam, and running the boundary of French possessions up to British Burmah.
Much of all this, of course, is " gas," generated by victory ; but as we pointed out last week, the Clericals refuse to resist Asiatic conquest, and the Respectables of the Senate voted for it, while the Army is betraying unexpected enthusiasm. The Ministry, like every Ministry, is much affected by the tone of the upper classes, M. Ferry is convinced that the forward policy is wise, the permanent chiefs of Departments think, it is said, that France must accumulate " estates " now or never, and an uneasy spirit of " enterprise" is manifesting itself among men hitherto deemed serious. The extraordinary project brought forward by the Government on Thursday of expending £2,000,000 sterling in evicting Arab cultivators in Algeria, in order to bestow their possessions on 25,000 French colonists, shows that some men at least who are ruling the State have temporarily lost their heads, and are forgetting not only political economy and common justice, but the whole position of France in North Africa. Under these circumstances, the feeling of the French peasantry be- comes of the last importance, and is most difficult to ascertain. That they are disposed for peace, we do not doubt. Indeed, we agree with those who believe that they always have been disposed for peace, and that, except for a moment during the Revolution, the aggressive wars of France have been made by her rulers and her upper classes. The peasantry desire quiet, moderate demands on their children's lives, and high quotations for their Bonds, and, unless they can recover lost provinces, regard war with aversion. But then, though this is undoubtedly their permanent sentiment, and so strong that if China declares war they may at any moment upset the Ministry, and turn the vessel's head sharp round—as they compelled M. de Freycinet to do in Egypt—is it permanent enough and strong enough to induce them to put a stop to apparently successful expeditions ? We confess to some doubt about this. The Deputies should know France, and they are evidently doubtful. The Church should know France, and it is going the other way. The soldiers should share peasants' feelings, and they are volunteering in thousands for Tonquin. We confess we doubt whether the peasants may not look on, and unless awakened by some shock, like a Chinese declaration of war or a great demand for money, may abstain from inter- ference. Neither of these events is at all certain. We our- selves believe that the great Council which meets next week in Pekin will decide to defend Tonquin, but it would not be unlike Chinese statesmen to defend it silently, by filling up the Tonquinese ranks, a process no French peasant would perceive. He does not, it must be remembered, object
to use the Fleet or the " Colonial Army "—i.e., Marines and Volunteers—but only to waste soldiers who are
his children, and are wanted to carry on life at home.
As to finance, money must, of course, be spent in quanti- ties ; but the Government is going to reduce the Floating Debt by a loan, voted long since, though not emitted, and will then possess the full power, just accorded by both Cham- bers to M. Tirard, of borrowing up to a limit of £25,000,000 from the Bank of France. No doubt, the Senate cautioned M. Tirard that if he used this power recklessly, a European war might find France unable to collect money suddenly ; but still M. Tirard insisted, and the power was granted without
a division. It is almost too disheartening to believe that the Republic can enter on such a career—clearly opposed to
the wishes of the majority of her people—and the peasantry still sit quiet ; but the French Ministry evidently think she can, and we do not like the signs. If the power of action temporarily belongs to the politicians, and the journalists, and the Parisian upper classes, they are in a most dangerous mood,—" freezing for a fight," as the Americans say, with somebody not too big. They may be restored to their usual senses by events, by a message from Pekin, by a rising in North Africa, or even by a check in Tonquin ; but at present they are burning with a passion for territories, provinces, islands, anything that is to be had. Reproof does not lie in our mouths perhaps, while we are always acquiring ; but re-
membering that France cannot colonise, and has never adhered to any consistent policy about dependencies, having acquired South India, Louisiana, Haiti, and Egypt, only to lose them, we watch this outburst of old passions under a new regime with pained regret.
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