THE REAL POPULAR VOTE.

THE amazing party mendacity of the Conservative papers in asserting that the Conservative minority represents (if the metropolitan boroughs be excluded) a real majority of the English electors, has induced us to obtain a rough calcu- lation of the actual votes given in all the contested elections of which the results were known up to Thursday night. Wo do not pretend that the table we give below is strictly accu- rate. The official returns have only been published for a few of the more important constituencies, but we may confidently assert that the inaccuracy, if any, is probably against our own side. The Conservative returns have been followed by preference whenever the two differed, and the calculation has been made by a statist who had no personal interest in the conclusions. Let us see briefly what these conclusions are.

In Lancashire, the boasted area of the great Conservative triumph, the actual popular vote given in the contested elec- tions is as nearly as possible balanced, an infinitesimal majority of not quite two hundred belonging to the Conserva- tives. The contested boroughs have given a majority of near 5,000 votes to the Liberals, and the contested counties (though represented in Parliament solely by eight Conservatives) have only given a majority of 5,000 to the Conservatives. Lanca- shire, therefore, may be practically said to be in equilibrium on the great question of the day. Its popular vote is am- biguous. It cannot make up its own mind. It believes in the Liberal policy with its soul, and hates it with its carnal passions. It tries to be Liberal, but its jealousy and dislike of the Irish are too much for it. The spirit wrestling against the flesh has been worsted,—barely worsted, —and its weight is consequently divided all but equally between the two scales of the balance. Now let us look to the other great manufacturing county,—Yorkshire. Here, in spite of the disadvantage of the total exclusion of the one great uncontested Liberal division of the county, the North-West

Riding, there is only a Conservative majority of about 140 on the county struggles as yet known (which would, of course, be trans- formed into a considerable Liberal majority if the North-West Riding had been contested), and a vast majority for the Liberals on the contests in the boroughs, a majority of about 8 to 3. The county as yet gives a vote which we may fairly consider (taking the uncontested county division into con- sideration) as full two to one for the Liberals. Yorkshire, therefore, has a strong opinion in favour of the Liberal policy. London separately (including Greenwich) gives about two to one for the Liberals. So far, then, we have a popu- lar vote practically ambiguous in Lancashire, but Liberal in the ratio of two to one in the other two great centres of population, Yorkshire and the metropolis. Now let us consider the English county vote, exclusive of the two great counties we have estimated separately. This gives, of course, a Conservative majority, but one in amount nothing like that which the list of the number of members returned on each side would alone suggest. The popular majority for the Conservatives in the other contested counties of England and Wales is not 23,000 in a total number of 272,000 votes, -that is, is not a majority of 9 per cent. If the county con- tests in Lancashire and Yorkshire were taken into account, the majority would be about 28,000, but the per-tentage would be even smaller than before on the total popular votes given. On the other hand, take the boroughs of England, exclusive of those of the counties already taken into account and of London. and the popular vote shows a majority of about 85,000, or more than 20 per cent., and if we add the majorities in the Lancashire and Yorkshire boroughs, and London, the popular majority would be increased to above 199,000 votes on the whole boroughs of England, and the per-tentage to 24 per cent. While the English counties alone have not given a popular majority of 9 per cent.. on the total vote for the Conservatives, the English boroughs alone have

given a popular majority of 24 per cent. And, finally, taking England (and Wales), counties and boroughs, alto- gether, the popular vote gives the Liberals a majority of about 172,000 votes for the Liberals ; that is, more than 14 per cent., (say) one-seventh of the whole number of votes given, and a far greater popular majority than the Conserva- tives have attained in the counties alone.

So much for England, which has been biassed in the counties by the supposition of the clergy that the fall of the Irish Church will involve evil consequences to the English Church. In Ireland an estimate was attempted, but so many seats bad not been contested, that the returns are entirely useless for any purpose, and we have omitted them. It is known that the Liberal majority of members already returned in Ireland is about twenty-three, but there is no means of arriving at even a rough estimate of the popular vote.

In Scotland, the most impartial part of the empire, on this question at least, for England has been largely actuated by the fears of the clergy for the consequences to their own Establishment,-the popular vote is overwhelming on the Liberal side, near four to one on the whole country, five to one in the boroughs, and even in the counties the majority is about 20 per cent on the total county vote.

Finally, taking Great Britain as a whole, the majority on the popular vote is about 232,000, on a total vote of 1,278,000, or more than one-sixth, more than 16 per cent. We conclude, then, that in the most impartial parts of the kingdom the popular vote for the Liberal policy has been im- mense and final ; that even in selected constituencies most subject to the influence of the clergy, and, by the admission of all, most Conservative, there is a vastly less majority against the Liberals than there is in their favour in those constituen- cies best situated for a perfectly impartial and cool reply to the issue put to them ; finally, that in Great Britain alone, leaving Ireland out of account altogether, there is a decisive judgment in favour of justice to Ireland, which is naturally very strongly supported by Ireland's own verdict. Even ex- cluding the verdict of those who are most deeply interested in the matter, Great Britain declares for justice to Ireland. Nay, even excluding Scotland, which is, we believe, better able to give a fairer decision than England herself, England alone, and in spite of the imaginary consequences of the measure to the clergy of her own Church, has decided by a very decisive majority for justice to Ireland.

We subjoin the table to which our remarks refer :-

Names.

England-excepting Metropolis and Lancashire and Yorkshire. Liberals.

Conservatives.

Boroughs 231,823

146.819 Counties 125,106 ••• 147,435 England minus London, Lancashire, & Yorkshire 356,929

•••

294,254 Metropolis-including Greenwich 111,029

•••

52,402 Lancashire-Boroughs 80.966

•••

76,161 County 23,262

•••

28,241 Lancashire

104,228 104,402 Yorkshire-Boroughs 83,471

32,432 County 15,604

15,744 Yorkshire 99,075

48,176 Scotland-Boroughs 68,334

13,126 „ Counties 15,776 ••• 10,803 Scotland 84.110

23,929

SUMMARY,

England and Wales-minus London, Lancashire, and

Yorkshire 356,929 ••• 294,254 London (including Greenwich) 111,029 ••• 52,402 Lancashire 104,228 ••• 104,402 Yorkshire 99,073 ••• 48,176 England and Wales 671,261

499,234 Scotland 84,110

23,929 Total for Great Britain 735,371 ... 522,163

Where there are more than the required number of Candidates of each party.- for instance, a Borough returning 2 members for which there are 3 Liberals and 2 Conservatives.-the Electors voting for the Liberal candidates have been added together and divided by 2.

In the City the Liberal votes for the 4 candidates were added together and divided by 3, to ascertain the number of Liberal voters, and the same was done with the voters for the 3 Conservative candidates.

If the Conservative return gave more than the Liberal, it has always been used.

Where a single seat has been contested among Liberals or Conservatives only, the numbersof Electors voting have been added together ; if two seats have been so contested, they have been added together and halved.