The Political Situation
We do not know what other Bills will go the way of the Education Bill, but the Bill in most danger at the moment is the Trade Disputes Bill. The Labour- Liberal pact was never more shaky. During the past few weeks it had steadily become more solid,, and experienced Parliamen- tarians who had been predicting an early dissolution were tending to the other extreme, and saying that the Govern- ment would have their life prolonged by a couple of years. Once again, however, the scene is changed. Just as Mr. Snowden's alarm has been altering the feeling of the Cabinet about their legislative programme, so is the Liberal slump in the constituencies altering the feeling of the Liberals towards the pact. Liberals are anxiously. asking themselves what is wrong with their policy. Why, are they so unexpectedly unpopular everywhere ? When they hoped to be regaining lost ground they are losing more than ever. Naturally many of them are blaming the tactics of Mr. Lloyd George, who in the interests of the pact has been consenting to Labour proposals which they greatly dislike. Is it only the fancy of these disconcerted Liberals, or is it a fact, that throughout the country there is a spreading reprobation of a policy which puts up with humiliations, and has, at least on the surface, many appear- ances of insincerity in order to bring off some manoeuvre which may not, after all, improve the Liberal position ? The general opinion seems to be, indeed, that the Alterna- tive Vote, which is the promised recompense of the Liberals for their support of the Government, is of very doubtful value. The deep disfavour into which the Liberals have fallen among the electors is bound to have its .effect in the House of Commons, and we may soon see one direct effect in the Standing Committee on the Trade Disputes Bill.
We shall not go here into the various Liberal amend-. nients, but it is plain that not one of them can be made to evade the plain issue between Labour and Liberalism in regard to the legality of such a strike as that of 1926. The most interesting point at the moment is that the Liberals, so far from wanting to evade the issue, seem more inclined to force it. Some weeks ago Mr. Birkett conducted an inquiry on behalf of the Liberals into the Bill, and his report, though it did not make definite recom- mendations, left no doubt that he thought the Bill thor- oughly dangerous. He followed up that report by a • speech in the second-reading debate in the House of Commons, in which he roundly condemned the essential clause of the Bill. That clause would allow a General Strike, which aimed a deadly blow at the welfare of the whole nation, to be carried on until it was declared illegal at the end of some cumbrous and possibly prolonged proceedings in Court. The chief Liberal amendments are directed now towards getting a declaration that any equivalent of the 1926 strike would be illegal. The Labour members of the Standing Committee are, however, determined to resist. In the background there is the General Council of the Trades Union Congress which says flatly that if the Bill is to be watered down it will be of no use whatever. At this juncture there are special reasons for deploring the death of Lord Melchett. Ile was a personal bridge between the employer and workmen, as represented by the General Council, and nobody as yet has taken his place. Rumour says that Mr. Lloyd George, who always becomes engrossed in his tactics, had lately been so much attached to the pact for its own sake that he was even inclined to go back upon the words of Mr. Birkett. Events, however, may be much too strong for him, if they are not so already. The mani- fest, if reluctant, response of the Liberals to popular opinion is a more potent fact than Mr. Lloyd George's tactical passion. If their present mood continues they, will soon be saying that Sir John Simon was right and that Mr. Lloyd George was wrong. They will not only insist upon the illegality of any sympathetic strike with a political tinge, but will remain firm in their preference for " contracting-in " to "contracting-out," and in their intention to keep Civil Servants out of political Trade Unions and to prevent any municipality from making Trade Unionism compulsory for municipal workers.
The one thing to be said for the recent Liberal tactics is that the Labour Party is being so weakened by internal quarrels that bargaining with it may become much easier as time passes. The Trade Union members of the Party and the Independent Labour Party have lost patience with the Government. As against this it may be pointed out that Sir Oswald Mosley is unable to lead as many members out of the Labour Party as he had hoped. It was thought at first that his whole group would resign, but when we write it seems that he cannot persuade more than four or five members to go with him into the wilderness. The other members of the group profess unabated sym- pathy with him, but have no idea of leaving the Party.
One interesting point which must be mentioned is that Sir Oswald Mosley has the sympathy of several young Conservatives. His scheme for an economic interlocking of the Empire appeals to them strongly, even though he regards a control of imports through Boards as much more important than tariffs. So far as he wants Rationalization on a great scale we are entirely with him, but we must stop short when he wanders into the sphere of an em- phasized economic nationalism. We are thinking not merely of trade but of the whole range of international relations when we say that exclusion instead of co- operation would make British foreign policy more difficult than it has been for a generation, and would check those movements which are either directly or indirectly inspired by the spirit of the League of Nations.
Finally, there is the Unionist Party, which is no happier than the others. The incursions of the Crusaders and the United Empire Party into by-elections have split the Unionist vote. The Crusaders have got only one repre- sentative in the House of Commons, who would perhaps feel more comfortable if he were an orthodox member of the Unionist Party, but without the ability to form a new Party of any considerable size the friends of Lord Beaver- brook and Lord Rothermere are at least able to make the whole Unionist Party pause before the uncertainties of a General Election. It is all quite mad but highly signi- ficant of the present confusion. The only Party ,which has a reasonable chance of introducing Protection is being crippled by the arch-Protectionists.
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