The Congressional Elections
Bs D. W. BROGAN AFTER the dad& of the scientific prophets in 1948, Mr. Osbert Lancaster showed a firm of pollsters sending out for a large crystal ball. No election in which Mr. Truman is an actor is inviting to the prophets, and there is a notable caginess in such comments on the approaching Congressional elections as reach us from across the Atlantic. There are pre- dictions that can be made safely (almost). It is almost unheard of for an Administration party not to lose some seats in the mid- term elections. And if, as is -now more or less established fact, the Democrats are the majority party, they should lose in " off years " as the Republicans did in the dear, dead days. So, with the due crossing of fingers that now accompanies any American political prediction, a guess may be risked. The Democrats will lose some seats in the House; they may well lose and gain seats in the Senate. But it is not as likely now as it was a few weeks ago that they will lose heavily, or certainly not heavily enough to lose control of either house of Congress. For what it means, Congress will stay " Democratic."
But what does it mean? In 1948 Mr. Truman successfully lambasted the " do-nothing eightieth Congress " with its Repub- lican majority. But the eighty-first Congress has done little, and where it has done anything it has produced monstrosities like the McCarran Bill that is now congesting Ellis Island. And it might have had a worse record if Mr. Truman had not vetoed some measures that got majorities in both houses. The record of this Congress is not one to stir the hearts of the American voters or to tempt them to attribute virtue to either party. True, the northern Democrats can say that, but for a coalition of Republicans and southern Democrats, more, of the Democratic programme of 1948 would have been enacted. But to that there is an easy retort; the majority of Congress and so, presumably, of the country is against the presidential programme, so why should it be enacted? This is a simplification, of course, but it is adequate for the rough and tumble dialectic of election time. It will be difficult, that is, to arouse interest in general issues of domestic politics; the personnel of the next Congress is likely enough to be the result of a series of local contests decided on local issues or on questions of personalities.
Some cif those personal and local contests have nevertheless some general implications. Thus, in New York, it is thought that Governor Dewey has outmanceuvred Mr. " Ed " Flynn of the Bronx, and Mr. Flynn, the ablest and most cultivated " boss " of modern times, is not easily outmanceuvred. Mr. Dewey did this by announcing that he was not going to run again, thts inspiring the Democratic high command with dangerous con- fidence. So they nominated Representative Lynch to run against Lieutenant-Governor Hanley. As an unkind commentator has put it, the only public figure as little known as Mr. Lynch is Mr. Hanley. But Governor Dewey reversed himself; he is going to run again, and Mr. Hanley is now pitted. against Senator Lehman. There is the example of Joe Louis to show that a champion can go too often into the ring, but if Mr. Lynch is a new Ezzard Charles, he has managed to keep it dark from his best friends.
A further complication is the politics of New York City. Mayor O'Dwyer has left City Hall for the comparative peace of the Embassy 0 Mexico, but he had hardly got out his sombrero when discipline broke down in New York. The temporary mayor, Mr. Impelliteri, decided to run against Judge Pecora, the regular Democratic candidate, and Mr. Corsi, the Republican. (The names show what racial changes have been at work in New York.) And the acting mayor has had a stroke of luck. He has induced Mr. Murphy, the formidable and gigantic prosecutor of Alger Hiss, to become Police Commissioner, and Mr. Murphy, is busy purging the Police force. For it has been discovered that " the finest," as the New York polio are laughingly called, have not been suppressing the horrid crime of betting on horses with sufficient vigour and, in many cases, have been getting a modest cut of the profits. This horrid revelation is shaking New York to the attics, and Mr. Impelliteri may split the Democratic vote, let Mr. Corsi win—and make Mr. Dewey's re-election certain. And that, in turn, means that when the Republican presidential nomination is awarded in 1952, Governor Dewey will have a great deal to say about it. It is unlikely that he can get the nomination himself; no " third time lucky ' theme will do. But he may well be strong enough to prevent the nomination of the pertinacious Senator Taft—if Senator Taft is still in the running.
And he may not be, for to the universal surprise of people who don't live in Ohio, Mr. Taft's Senate seat is in danger. His opponent is as typical a product of Ohio politics as is Mr. Taft's colleague, Senator Bricker, that is a phenomenon only really to be understood by voters of the Buckeye state. But Jumping Joe " Ferguson is giving Mr. Taft a fright, helped by the Unions who are anxious to make an example of the author of the Taft- Hartley Act. To kill off Senator Taft might be highly educa- tional for other politicians. But that is not all. There is a crisis on, and Mr. Taft, for all his ability and industry, has a talent for not seeing storm signals; he didn't see them in 1940-41, and he is only half seeing them now. Thus at the news of Mr. Truman's decision to send troops into Korea, Mr. Taft found good or plausible reasons for denying the President any consti- tutional right to do so. This will be remembered, and remem- bered against him.
For the change in the fortunes of war will almost certainly help the Administration. The shoulders of Mr. Louis Johnson have had to take the blame for the early disasters; the recent victories will naturally be exploited by the Administration, especially by an Administration that has George Marshall as Secretary of Defence. (Mr. Taft disapproves of that, too.) True, the military hero of the Korean war is the most eminent Republican soldier, General MacArthur, but it has become more difficult to exploit General MacArthur's victories than his reverses. He cannot complain that he has not been lavishly supported by the Administration in all purely military matters.
There is one possible time-bomb that may go off and hurt the Administration; the wave of panic about Communist infiltration may prgcluce unpredictable upheavals. Thus in California fear of " the Reds " may give a Senate seat to the Republicans, for their candidate, Representative Nixon, can rightly claim that he, more than anyone, started the process that ended in the con- demnation of Alger Hiss. Mr. Murphy convicted him, but Mr. Nixon, in effect, indicted him. So he may beat Representative Helen Gahagan Douglas in a state with a nominally over- whelming Democratic majority, and such a victory would reveal resentment of Mr. Truman's famous dismissal of the issue in 1948 as " a red herring." The herring still smells.
But the application of the McCarran Act has already made people wonder if the President wasn't right in vetoing the Bill and if the present chaos isn't intended to show the country how silly Congress can be in a panic (under the new statute, at anyrate as it was first interpreted, it seemed that even General Franco would be barred from entering the United States). Perhaps the laws of a great nation should not be administered in a way that shows their ridiculous character, but Mr. Truman might say to Congress, the American Legion, etc., " Vous l'avez Voulu."
In short, the elections are not likely to make much difference, though some useful young members may lose their seats. American foreign policy will continue .to be made from the White House and the State Department, and that policy will be one of peace with firmness, not one of " calling the Russian bluff " on the continent of Asia.
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