POLITICAL COMMENTARY

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HUGH MACPHERSON

Chesterton was of course right, For the great Gaels of Ireland Are the men that God made mad ... But not only personal insanity. They also have the capacity to reduce the most solemn institutions to a perpetual midsummer mad- ness which would be charming if it did not also involve chaos, suffering and death. Westminster, however, is far from the Falls and this week the Irish, as they have done off and on for the last century, made the solemn senators gaze across the Irish Chan- nel with trepidation.

As usual there was an element of farce mixed with tragedy. The Ulster group sol- emnly made it known that they would ab- stain from voting on the report stage of the Industrial Relations Bill, to show they meant

• business, only to find that their resolve was outweighed by Labour ineptitude so that the government majority increased. A police- man saw hope in the situation because Miss Bernadette Devlin smiled in the most civil manner at the Rev Ian Paisley. Mr Callaghan girded his loins for an avuncular tour of the troubled province apparently convinced that better Irish Bobbies will do the trick and Mr Heath and Mr Wilson sat nodding in agreement—one of West- minster's rarest spectacles. For good mea- sure when Mr Maudling and Lord Carring- ton arrived for a meeting of Tory back- benchers they found the accommodation too , small and moved to more spacious premises where they were given the kind of pasting Labour leaders receive when they decide .to increase prescription charges.

The well-nigh intractable problems fac- ing the new Ulster Prime Minister Brian Faulkner, and the British government, are revealed in the fact that no one was able to answer the question as to what Major Chichester-Clark demanded from Westmin- ster—and was refused. Mr Heath maintained that there was no difference between the last Ulster PM and himself in the 'social, economic or security fields'. We must take Mr Heath's word for it, but there is a valu- able mechanism used by men of authority— such as ship's captains, newspaper editors, police chiefs and political leaders—by which actions and negotiations can take place before arriving for the imprimatur of the top man.

More than one Irish me is convinced that Major Chichester-Clark was persuaded in Ireland to re-write his resignation before it was published, and if there is no truth whatsoever in this belief then the future of Mr Brian Faulkner is bleak indeed. For un- less some concessions towards sterner mea- sures against terrorism are in reserve then Mr Brian Faulkner's term of office will be short and stormy despite the unanimity across the floor of the House of Commons.

On Monday his appointment must be rati- fied by the mass of the constituency .parties in Ulster. This he should manage. Ulster

Unionist MPS are, however, convinced that within a year that body will be packed with the hardest of hard-liners, even by Irish standards. That means Mr Craig. It also means direct rule.

The short-term consequences for the uk

government are grisly. The abstention from voting for several hours by the Ulster group was, of course, a damp squib. It need not necessarily always be so. One Ulster Union- ist MP put it like this: 'It's no longer a question of whether one is a moderate or not. I suppose I am a moderate. But in Parliamentary terms the question is whether you are a hawk or a dove—and I'm a hawk and so are the other Ulster Unionists.' This would be embarrassing enough if it meant that Northern Ireland MPS would be trucu- lent over their own affairs but Mr Kilfedder, who nurses a majority of 41,433 at Down North, has already announced that he will not vote with the Government for the rest of this week as a gesture. '

The Member who pronounced himself a Parliamentary hawk also said 'The party must realise that we are nOt bluffing. We will pick our issue and vote on the other side. And we'll make it known why we are doing it.' There is, of course, a well established principle that a member's vote must agree with his voice. This ruling is, however, easily circumvented by simply remaining silent during the debate on any chosen subject, marching through the Lobby with the opposition and making sure that the press are well briefed in advance.

The opportunities for spreading anguish are manifold, If, for instance, the Common Market comes before the House any hopes the Government Whips nourish of allaying the fears Ulstermen already have of joining 'Catholic' Europe would be pretty fragile.' The issue need not be so spectacular. What if Captain Orr should present an ultimatum to Mr Whitelaw that unless certain concessions are obtained the Ulster Unionists will await the first occasion the Government is in diffi- culties, through illness or internal disagree- ment, and vote with the opposition? There are eight members of his own party, not to mention Mr Paisley and Unity member Mr Frank McManus, at present languishing in jail. That little lot could reduce the govern- ment's majority to a handful or to defeat.

Nor can the Government be happy about

the way Mr Enoch Powell stepped into the fray with a reference to areas where 'the Queen's writ does not run', This drew a swift denial that there were such areas from Mr Maudling and, in his statement, from Mr Heath. The same phrase was raised by several people during the stormy backbench meeting and Mr Powell himself added a word. Afterwards one Ulster Unionist mem- ber said that it was good to know that 'at least one senior Tory understood and sup- ported their views. One hardly sees Mr Powell leading flute bands through the streets of Belfast. but the way he seized on yet another populist cause can scarcely allow Mr Heath to face the morning egg with his

• customary resolution'.

• The problem with Mr Powell's interven- tion is not that he was wrong but, in fact, that he was just about right. Mr Heath and Mr Maudling were correct when they Said that there was nowhere where the army does not go but there was no adequate answer to Mr Paisley's change that military vehicles travel at speed through these areas, and that in the Andersonstown and Springfield Road last year only eighteen out of 811 persons who mounted attacks on the police were arrested. Whether Mr Powell should have intervened in the way that he did is another question. It is sometimes no more helpful to society to publicise its running sores than it is to tell an individual he has cancer.

Beyond these immediate difficulties there lies the distinct possibility of direct rule from Westminster. Although the only safe pro- phecy about Irish politics is that they will be stormy, it has been difficult to find any- one who thinks that Mr Faulkner can suc- ceed where Major Chichester-Clark failed. Equally no one believes that Westminster would tolerate the measures Mr Craig has in mind for dealing with the situation. Among the major problems facing the Westminster government should direct rule replace Stor- mont would be the fact that the twelve par- liamentary seats allocated to the province • Is an inadequate number. The present num- ber is acceptable because of the presence of Stormont. If the present constitutional arrangements were altered it would be hard to see them returning to the 1921 position. With just over 21 per cent of the electorate 'Ulster could expect about twenty seats.

Both parties view this possibility with extreme misgivings for it could be a return to the days when the Commons spent much of its time trying to solve the riddles of Ire- land. Not the least of the problems would be

the fact that the IRA would then have focused the entire Irish question on re-unification both at Westminster. where there are mem- bers prepared to make the kind of long-term romantic noises about a united Ireland which leads to immediate bloodshed, and among the Catholic population of Ulster.

At the moment the only bright light at Westminster is for the extremists. Supporters of the Civil Rights Movement at Westminster had hoped that by holding the present posi- tion Mr Craig would be driven to extreme

measures which would discredit him. 'But these damned IRA gunmen moved in,' said one such Member, 'and made Craig seem like the Saviour.'

For Edward Heath there is the problem that has dogged British Prime Ministers for

a century. It is often said that no English- man can understand the Irish, which may well be true. But the task of the PM IS to try and make them understand each other. That is infinitely more difficult.