SIR STAFFORD NORTHCOTE AT LIVERPOOL.
SER STAFFORD NORTHCOTE has many qualities which will make him a popular leader of the House of Commons, but none which will be more useful to him— if he does not let it run to excess—than his deep-rooted optimism. It is difficult even for optimists to repeat their belief that everything is for the beat, when they are just receiving a great volley of "the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,"—but not so for Sit Stafford
the armistice ends, what a triumph it will be for Sir Stafford ever contended for, almost all that Lord Beaconsfield Northcote the Christian over Lord Salisbury the diplo- contended for, except that he also intimated, in his matist I celebrated speech at the Guildhall, that it might become One other feature, besides their feeble optimism, is very necessary for us to go to war with a Power not so well off notable in Sir Stafford Northcote's speeches at Liverpool. financially as we are, and which would not be able to keep up the early part of the year, and then in September sent the Would they have thought of proposing a Conference in most dictatorial of despatches to the Porte, whose threaten- Madrid on the Spanish misgovernment of Cuba ?—the nearest mg tone Turkey has made as light of as it deserved. It is thing we know of,—though distant from it by so great an
undeniably right, said Sir Stafford, to do one thing under one interval,—to the Turkish misgovernment of Bulgaria and her set. of circumstances, and another under another. It may be other provinces ? If the discretion of Tttrkey is to be deferred
quite wise to go out without any great-coat in Jane, and to as if she were an integral part of the European system, the to put on a very heavy one in January. So, as we suppose Conference was a mistake and an insult to her from begin- he meant his audience to apply the parable, it was quite ning to end. Northcote. He is not exactly grateful for the failure of the the Herzegovina.fight it out,' and yet to say to Turkey in the Conference. That would be too embarrassing for a Minister ! autumn, If you don't at once grant an armistice our Ara- who has to justify originating it. But in spite of the failure, he bassador will be withdrawn.' The necessity for le great- is very thankful that it has been held. He finds the position coat—the policy of interference—came, we suppose, with of Europe after it has been defied, and. successfully defied, the Bulgarian massacres, and the prospect of Russian interven- by Turkey, all the pleasanter and more hopeful for that rebuff. tion. Be it so. But is it reasonable to go out in a great- The Conference, if it was nothing better, was a diversion from coat when rain is threatening, yet to take it off when the war. It gave the combatants time to reconsider their posi- storm is beginning to beat furiously against you ? Or to tion. It has allowed the various nations interested to die- drop the parable,—which, to tell the truth, is not a very cuss matters " kindly " amongst themselves. It has made it effective one for Sir Stafford, except so far as all vagueness in- possible for everybody to interpret everybody else's views terposes a certain difficulty in apprehending the crucial points in the best possible sense. And so Sir Stafford North- of a question,—is it reasonable to dictate in the most posi- cote rests his sanguine hopes of peace on the Apostolic tive terms when Turkey still seems to be open to influence from recommendation to every one to " let brotherly love con- without, and then to return to your meek and gentle air of per- tinue," and to remember that " a soft answer tunieth away fect acquiescence in her discretion, when she has thrown off wrath,"—recommendations couched in the most amiable strain, the mask of pliancy, and has defeated Europe in the most but wanting only this guarantee of success,—that the people triumphant way, after six weeks' of steady pressure ? Yet that is who accept the injunctions as divine are in pressing need of precisely the course which Sir Stafford Northcote himself protection against massacre and torture which they cannot seems to approve. A month or two ago he admitted in strong get, while the people to whom these mild principles would be language that we were bound to obtain guarantees against of most use, reject their authority with scorn. oppression for the down-trodden and despoiled Christian pro-
" It is my honest belief," says Sir Stafford Northcote-- vinces of Turkey. Now he uses very different language,—much " perhaps I may be charged with being too sanguine—that more like the language of Lord Derby, when he said to the our great hope and probability of maintaining peace rests on deputation that he was quite impotent, since he had no this,—that we should abstain rigorously mid conscientiously more right to interfere in the internal condition of Turkey from anything like provocation or taunts which may suggest than in that of Italy or Austria. " I cannot under- the possibility of war to others." " I would impress most stand," says Sir Stafford Northcote, " the language of earnestly upon those who are able to influence public opinion those who would apparently desire to turn the con- on these matters in any way, that they should for the present duct of Turkey in this matter into a cause of offence and in the existing state of affairs, be most cautious to Europe, or any particular Power in Europe. Turkey and most reticent in what they say, and that they should has done that which she, in her true right, thought it best for be prepared to give credit to those Powers of whose her to do. We regret exceedingly the conduct she has pur- intentions it may perhaps be difficult to judge,—to give sued. We think it ill-advised ; we think that nothing has them credit for the best intentions of which their con- been proposed to her which she might not honourably and duct is susceptible." That is amiable, no doubt, and there is without detriment to herself have accepted. But she has no absolute certainty that if Lord Salisbury had been instructed chosen otherwise,"—and that being so, there was no more to to distribute to the members of the Conference, on its break- be said. Well, as far we understand it, that means that as ing up, a copy, in Turkish, Russian, and the other languages, Turkey has seen fit to refuse all guarantees for the better govern- of the little tract which used to be called "A Kiss for a ment of the provinces which Sir Stafford Northcote admitted Blow," it might not have had a good effect. But is it really it to be our duty to see righted, we ought to be perfectly content the leader of the British House of Commons who, when with the exercise she has made of her discretion, and regard the policy of his Government fails in this way, goes about ourselves as having done all that we ought to do for the telling everybody to think kindly of every one else, and that then wretched provinces in question. This is taking off the winter coat perhaps there will be no war ? The hard facts of the case are in the middle of the snow-storm with a vengeance. Laissez-faire these,—that after centuries of the worst kind of oppression, a was the very line which Lord Derby took consistently till the revolt has occurred, lasting more than a year ; that that revolt autumn horrors awakened the country. Then the policy was has been partly put down with more than Turkish barbarity ; changed. Then threatening despatches were written, and and that a war between Turkey and her subject provinces, now the more liberal of the Ministers avowed that we could interrupted by an armistice, led to the Conference which has not so interpret the Treaty of 1856, as to ignore the just failed because the Turks laughed in the face of Europe ; duty of getting some protection for the Christian provinces and finally, that Russia and Turkey are straining every nerve of Turkey against such abuses as those of which they had lately for a great conflict. Yet after all this Sir Stafford been the victim. But now that the Conference has failed, we are Northcote tells us that if we are very good and gentle, assured that Turkey has done nothing in which either Europe and believe very much in everybody's good intentions, or any individual Power should find cause of offence. She has we may share his sanguine belief that everything will done only what she had the strictest right to do. Nobody come right. Optimism is, no doubt, a capital quality for should feel offended. We should give everybody credit for leaders of popular assemblies, but we must say we think Sir the noblest motives, and rest quite happy that if the Con-
Stafford Northcote's optimism is almost too thin a sort of ference did nothing, at least it showed that all the Powers of gruel to go down even there. This is indeed the analogue, in Europe were equally shocked at what had happened, and political diet, of what the doctors call "slops," with a ven- equally anxious, if they could do it without expense and geance. Policy has failed, it is admitted ; but if Europe will danger, to prevent its happening again. That is all that only kiss and be friends in this pleasant little interval before Lord Derby, at the very climax of his sense of impotence, the armistice ends, what a triumph it will be for Sir Stafford ever contended for, almost all that Lord Beaconsfield Northcote the Christian over Lord Salisbury the diplo- contended for, except that he also intimated, in his matist I celebrated speech at the Guildhall, that it might become One other feature, besides their feeble optimism, is very necessary for us to go to war with a Power not so well off notable in Sir Stafford Northcote's speeches at Liverpool. financially as we are, and which would not be able to keep up There is a distinct reversion in them in the direction of campaign after campaign as we could, without missing the Lord Beaconsfield's view of the absolutely binding character sinews of war. Take away the bounce, and the active sympathy of the Treaty of 1856, so far as regards the guarantee with Turkish abuses visible in Lord Beaconsfield's speeches, given by it to the independence and integrity of the Turkish and there would be left little beyond the respectful acquiescence - Empire. In one part of the first speech, indeed, Sir Stafford in Turkish resolves which characterises also Sir Stafford appeared to be apologising for the very pendulum-like policy of Northcote's. Yet if this was the Government's real view the Government, which kept preaching non-interference in of Turkey, what made them summon a Conference at all the early part of the year, and then in September sent the Would they have thought of proposing a Conference in most dictatorial of despatches to the Porte, whose threaten- Madrid on the Spanish misgovernment of Cuba ?—the nearest mg tone Turkey has made as light of as it deserved. It is thing we know of,—though distant from it by so great an
undeniably right, said Sir Stafford, to do one thing under one interval,—to the Turkish misgovernment of Bulgaria and her set. of circumstances, and another under another. It may be other provinces ? If the discretion of Tttrkey is to be deferred
quite wise to go out without any great-coat in Jane, and to as if she were an integral part of the European system, the to put on a very heavy one in January. So, as we suppose Conference was a mistake and an insult to her from begin- he meant his audience to apply the parable, it was quite ning to end.
to make the Eastern policy of the Government still more unintelligible than it was before. Ministers delayed the in- tervention till it was too late. They then pushed it on in a cavalier spirit. And now that they are defeated, they retreat from it in a cowed and timid spirit,—disseminating moral platitudes which have no significance, and prophesying rose- water conclusions, if everybody will only be as sweet-tempered as themselves. No doubt, if all the Powers were likely to be as sugary as Sir Stafford Northcote, when their schemes fail, there would be no war. But then there would probably be a good spell of massacre in Turkey, in its place.
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