TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE PROSPECTS OF THE GOVERNMENT.
PERHAPS no Administration of our time ever yet got into so many political scrapes as the present Government is in now. It has made some very bad blunders. It has had some fearfully bad luck. Its best actions have not yet reaped their reward, and the delay is making weak people doubt whether they were good actions ; and its worst actions have reaped a good deal more than their natural penalty. The anarchy at the Admiralty is shocking every body ; the Collier scandal has seldom been equalled for superfluousness as well as bad judgment ; the Ewelme Rectory scandal seems likely to reinforce the Collier scandal ; the Ame- rican claims are raising a great prejudice against what was not without reason thought one of the shrewdest departments of the Government, for not expressly excluding from the scope of the Treaty, arbitration on those enormous " indirect " claims which in spirit had certainly been waived by the American Government ; the Education policy of the Government,— its greatest claim to public gratitude in England at least,— has brought about something very like a secession of the Nonconformist party ; Mr. Bruce's weakness,—his moral prostration of himself before the Licensed Victuallers, for instance, on Wednesday,—vexes and chafes the country ; and even Mr. Lowe's good luck in getting so large a revenue is turned into a reproach on the financial pessimism which made him lay on the additional 2d. of income-tax. Alto- gether, there is hardly a Department without a Parliamentary sorrow and fear of its own, and the Prime Minister is per- sonally involved in at least two of the most serious discredits. Yet, in spite of all, though it is hard to find one thoroughly loyal section of the Liberal party,—the Moderates being alienated by the Army reform, the Collier scandal, and the fear of Mr. Goschen's Local Rating Bill,—and the Left Wing by the Education policy and the expenditure on the Army,— and though the Conservatives are "exceedingly mad" against the whole Administration and its leader, there is a very curious concurrence of hopes rather than expectations that the Government may yet be saved. The Tories are declaring everywhere that the time is not come for them to appeal to the country,—one reason being that they are nervous as to the Licensing question, and do not want to face the clergy if they give in to the Licensed Victuallers, or to face the Licensed Victuallers if they give in to the clergy,— while the Nonconformists at Manchester are exhorting each other most eagerly, though not very successfully, to be temperate, and to give even Mr. Forster a second chance if he will take it. Thus it happens that while very few love the Govern- ment and very many hate it, no one is anxious to overthrow it ; and every member is asking how far he can go in embar- rassing and harassing the Government without overthrowing it. Many would like to knock over Lord Hatherley ; many to expel Mr. Forster ; many to rid the Government of Mr. Bruce; many to hurt Mr. Lowe ; most of all, perhaps, to humiliate Mr. Gladstone. But they all want to know how this can be done without causing a dissolution or change of Government. It is a spiteful problem in maxima and minima,—how to inflict on the Government the maximum of discredit with the mini- mum of immediate result. The censors of the Government are like a dueller who declares he does not want to kill his antagonist, but only to " give him a lesson that he will remember to the day of his death." That, however, is a very delicate feat to achieve when you are playing with deadly weapons. You may wish to " wing" your adversary, and send a ball just through the heart. And the great question now is,—Can the Government, even with the cordial help of its many open enemies and insincere friends, manage to receive the tokens of the accumulated dislikes of so many different sections, and yet survive the Session ?
We confess we have the greatest doubt of it. If there were but the Collier and the Ewelme scandals to get over, the matter would be easy. A vote of censure will be carried, no doubt, in the House of Lords,—to which Governments never think it worth while to attend. In the Commons, as the Tories wish to delay action, the leaders will probably content themselves with making bitter speeches, and then giving the cue to their followers not to vote. The Liberals, again, who have no wish to see Mr. Disraeli in power would pro- bably in most cases support their leader in a small matter of this kind, on the confessed ground that these blunders, though regrettable and deserving of sharp remonstrance, do not
furnish sufficient cause for censuring an Administration which has done so much good work. We do not doubt, therefore, that the immediate stumblingblocks caused by the stretches of administrative power can be got out of the way, as neither Tories nor Liberals wish to see them made occasions for as upset of the Coach. Nor do we deny that it is just possible that the warning given by these mishaps may make Mr. Glad- stone so much more cautious this Session than he was last, so unmabitious in his proposals, and so well inclined to seek a modus viveudi with his own discontented followers, that difficulties may be tided over till after the Budget, when a prosperous revenue and an undue amount of temporary economy may make things look so pleasant as to give the Administration quite a new lease of life. That is, no doubt, on the cards ; and as we ourselves, though uncomfortably impressed with the failure of several of the departmental chiefs, and the general deficiency of the Administration in real governing power, heartily admire the general aims of the present, Cabinet, we hope it may be so, and that it may enter on a new period of equally high political ends and a great deal more effective administrative work.
But we can't conceal our conviction that the chances are decidedly the other way. We admit that both Conserva- tives and Liberals want delay ; that Mr. Disraeli is not ready to take office ; that Mr. Miall is not ready for his appeal to the people of England in favour of pure Religious Voluntaryism ; and that Mr. Vernon Harcouit, even if he has the list of his Cabinet in his pocket,. does not yet see his way to a Parliamentary majority. But• admitting this desire for delay to the full, if you bring a number of bitter parties together, supply plenty of occasions for anger, and trust to their sense of prudence for preventing a rupture, you must be very sanguine indeed to count with any confidence on success. To find fault constantly, and yet avert a quarrel, is a problem that neither in domestic nor parliamentary life has yet been solved. Parliament will pro- bably all but censure one or two of Mr. Gladstone's appoint- ments ; it will very likely complain bitterly that steps were not taken to define more exactly what it is we are submitting to arbitration at Geneva ; it will be involved in many a scuffle on the Education question ; there will be indignation over the disclosures of Mr. Vernon Lushington and the Meg era Com- mission ; the question of an Army Retirement policy will be a very heated one ; Law Amendment questions will lead to some very pungent remarks on the Lord Chancellor's conduct; indeed, acrid personal criticisms,—the most heating of any,—are sure to abound ; and so, on the whole, there is certain to be plenty of gunpowder and plenty of sparks. If under these circum- stances no explosion takes place in this curious assortment of inflammable materials, we shall have some reason to hope that we have discovered a political analogue for Mr. Gale 's incom- bustible gunpowder.
The explosion will probably come, if it does come, on some quite unexpected point, for it is the unexpected points for which the tempers of all parties are least prepared ; but we confess we can hardly see how the Scotch Education Bill is to pass through the House without opening a formal breach between the Nonconformists and the Government. The Non- conformists have apparently denounced entirely the reasonable idea, forming a part of Mr. Gladstone's well-considered policy, that the wishes of each constituent element of the United Kingdom shall be consulted on matters of local policy, of which education seems the chief. They see that this would lead to a policy in Ireland which they could not endure, which would be to them the agony of agonies, a political neuralgia too excruciating to bear ; but they also see that to accept battle on the sub- ject of Irish Education would be to lose a great advantage of position, for they want to go to Irish Education with the pre- cedents for England and Scotland already in their favour ; so they have decided to join issue with the Government on the Scotch Education Bill. Now, the Lord Advocate has announced,—we conclude with deliberate intention and after due consideration,—that the Scotch Education Bill is to apply to Scotland a scheme very like to that of Mr. Forster's first scheme in the English Bill of 1870 ; that is, that every School Board is to have power to teach religion or not, just as it shall, in its own discretion, decide, but that the central grants and the State inspection are to have no relation what- ever to the religious teaching (if any) adopted in the schools. It is obvious that this scheme is a great deal less secular than the English Education Act, that it is, in fact, a scheme of locally permissive religion,—the most fatal of pre- cedents for the Ultramontanes in Ireland. The Norma- formists have declared formally their intention to resist it to the last, and if beaten to make this a ground of open breach with the Government. Now, how can the Government avoid the conflicts The Lord-Advocate, we assume, had carefully consulted Scotch opinion before he made his declaration. Mr. Gladstone is pledged as a statesman to defer to local opinion in such a case. If the majority of Scotch votes really favour this scheme, or one more or less like it, it will be hard to find any compromise with the Non- conformists. Of course they will be beaten with the aid of Scotch Liberal votes, to say nothing of Conservative votes, but they will be beaten into open rebellion ; and on the first occasion will desert the Government, and leave Mr. Disraeli in the dilemma between shrinking openly from a victory and forcing on the crisis. It is absolutely necessary that the Scotch Education Bill must go through. It is hardly conceivable that after the Lord-Advocate's explicit declarations, a Bill based on the policy of secular education can be brought in for Scotland,—the only Bill which will satisfy the Nonconformists, —and quite certain that if it is, the Government will seem to have succumbed so ignominiously to the threats of the Bir- mingham League, that they would lose more in general prestige than they would gain in tactics ; indeed the victory would be immediately followed up by an attempt to compel a sur- render without terms in relation to English Education. In fact, as far as we can see, an internecine conflict with the Non- conformists on the Scotch Education Bill is inevitable ; and either a Nonconformist victory, which is, of course, out of the question, or a Nonconformist defeat, must precipitate the breach in the Liberal party that seems to be impending.
After that breach has once occurred it will be most unlikely that the Government should survive the Session,—survive, that is, without a dissolution, if it prefers the alternative of dissolution to that of resignation. It has done great things legislatively, but they have not yet led to brilliant results, for which time is required ; and administratively the Government has failed. Its greatest act of all,—the Education Act,—has led, through the determination of the Nonconformists to humiliate the Church, to a very serious schism in the ranks of the Liberals, —though, of course, a schism even more serious would have resulted from accepting the Nonconformist dictation. Its foreign policy, cautious throughout, has apparently (though we hope still for some explanation) been deficient in caution just when caution was most natural,—in guarding carefully a great and just concession to the wounded feelings of the American nation. Its appointments have caused general mortification. Its feud with the Licensed Vic- tuallers has aggravated every danger by producing defeat after defeat at the polls. Nothing is to us more difficult to conceive than that a Session beginning amid such troubles should end without a great split in the ranks of the political fol- lowers of Government. Nothing happens but the unexpected, so that we may still see some wonderful reconciliation-scene, in which everybody falls into everybody else's arms ; or some superhuman exercise of prudence and self-restraint which may lead, as the ostentatious physicians say, to political " defer- vescence" at the very climax of the Parliamentary fever. But as far as our poor skill in diagnostic goes, we rather apprehend, we confess, even if such defervescence should take place, that there would appear amongst the " sequelas " of the fever some very " painful affections," likely to be as bad as the disease ; and more probably such a serious " exacerbation of the symptoms " as usually follows the repeated meetings of estranged friends. Vaticination is always dangerous work, and we do not pretend to any particular skill in the art. But on common-sense grounds, we incline to think it decidedly improbable that Parliament can get through the Session without a rupture with the Government.
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