THE FALSIFIED PREDICTIONS OF THE GOVERNMENT.
AGOOD many disagreeable things have been said of this Government by its opponents, but nothing that its antagonists have ever said of it can, to its more thought- ful friends, be food for reflection so unpleasant as the number of false expectations which it has deliberately excited concerning its own performances. We will say nothing now of its boast of restoring to Turkey the line of the Balkans ; nothing of its day-dream that the chief roadstead of Cyprus was to be turned, within a year, into a great naval harbour ; nothing of its auguries of Turkish re- forms which should make Asia Minor flow with milk and honey. Let us limit ourselves strictly to the Afghan policy, and see how needlessly and how confidently the various Ministers have committed themselves to anticipations which prove that, one and all, they have been living in a fool's paradise, where there was no excuse at all for living in such a paradise,—since foes and friends had alike warned them of the extreme danger of the policy they were undertaking for the purpose of warding off a danger that was, as Lord Salisbury himself at one time took the greatest pains to prove, at once doubtful and distant.
We quoted last week the two boasts uttered by the Prime Minister, during the present year, within little more than three months of each other, each of which was, within. a month from its utterance, shown to be penetrated by one of those monstrous illusions which, in the mouth of one who, like the Prime Minister, has access to all the best sources of official information, betrays either the recklessness of a political gamester who does not count his words so long as he can make the momentary impression he desires, or the hope- less incompetence of a political blunderer, who cannot even see how dangerous a game he is playing. As far as we know, there has not been in Europe in our time a Prime Minister, except Lord Beaconsfield, who, after such experience as that gained by England in the disastrous Afghan war of 1842,— an experience of which his own memory must record the dark and terrible lines,—and after so rash a boast as that made by him early in August that all the danger of his recent enterprise was over, and the scientific frontier secured "with a precision of plan and a rapidity of exe- cution not easily equalled in the annals of statemanship and war," could yet have watched the disastrous omens written in the Cabal massacre of last September not only with- out any apparent anxiety, but oven with a light heart. That with such awful warnings before his eyes he should have been able to renew his boast on November 10th, and tell the City of London, without a word of doubt or hesitation as to the possibilities of the future,—" We have strengthened and se- cured our North-Western frontier. We have asserted our supremacy in Central Asia, and the general result of our opera- tions will be, I hope, to establish tranquillity in those regions, and to increase the welfare of the inhabitants,"—strikes one with a sense of utter hopelessness for the Cabinet of which his is the leading mind. Either on November 10th he thought all danger over or he did not. If he did, he was utterly in- competent to understand the most glaring lessons conveyed by the most recent history of a great Oriental State, though he is supposed to have more insight into Oriental than into Western character, If he did not, he was staking his all on the chance that matters would go right, when he thought it very possible that they might go wrong, and was deliberately misleading the people whom he is bound to guide as truly as he can, by persuading them to enter into a fools' paradise which he did not share.
But the Prime Minister is on this head only the first among many brethren who all had the disaster of 1842 before their eyes, and all equally ignored it. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, and leader of the House of Commons, has followed his leader with needless and almost stupid fidelity. On June 18th he proclaimed in the Tower Hamlets that the Afghan war had been " magnificently " successful, and stated that "we have arrived, in spite of very confident predictions to the contrary, at a settlement which will, I believe, avert and put an end to the uneasiness with which we have for some time had to contend in India, and will enable the rulers of India to devote themselves exclusively to the material interests of the country." We wonder what Sir Stafford thinks now of "the confident pre- dictions to the contrary" of which he made so light before he had had any means of testing their value. We know, indeed, not perhaps what he thinks, but what he thinks it best to say con- cerning the present serious crisis, for he had necessarily to touch upon the subject in his speech at Leeds last Saturday.
If what he says represents accurately what he thinks,—which can hardly be,—he must have got so accustomed to the climate of a fool's paradise as to be absolutely unfitted for any attempt to accommodate his ideas to the facts of life. This is what Sir Stafford Northcote said last Saturday—it is worth recording—with the week's news concerning the position in Afghanistan before him :—
"Well, I believe that the policy of her Majesty's Government in re- gard to the North-West Frontier of India has been declared clearly and
emphatically over and over again. It is a policy of defence, and not
a policy of annexation. (Hear, hoar.) It is a policy which aims at se- curing our people in India from vain alarms of ' movements and inva- sions from outside. It is a policy which is adopted not only for the high objects of the Empire, but in a special degree for quieting the minds of the people of India, that they may not think that there are dangers of changes and dangers of wars such as we might feel it difficult to prevent. And, therefore, it has been with a view to the better protection of that frontier, and to the improvement of the security of our people in India, that we have undertaken the policy of the last year with regard to Afghanistan. It has been, it is still, our earnest desire to maintain Afghanistan a Power which shall be interposed between us and any other Power that might come near us. It is our desire to see in that country a form of government that shall be suitable to the wants of its population, and shall at the same time be ready to maintain friendly relations with ourselves (cheers) ; and it is our determination, not less for our own sakes than for the sake of the people of Afghanistan themselves, that we will not allow any foreign Power to interfere to dominate the foreign pol;cy in Afghanistan. (Cheers.) It has been a deep matter of regret to us that in endeavouring to follow out that policy, bloodshed has occurred and resistance and strife. We feel that there is no option for us but to persevere, and to carry through the enterprise which we had commenced. (Hear, hear). We do not depart from the principles upon which we entered upon that contest. The events which thave occurred, though they might modify in BOIlle small details the provisions which we had hoped to effect, yet, still, they do not affect the principles of the Treaty concluded at Gundamuok, and we may say with confidence that we shall be able, at a brief period, to give effect to that policy, and hope to bring about a happy state of affairs in Afghanistan, as well as in India. As for the present moment, do not let it be supposed that there is anything in the position of our forces which nood cause any distress or anxiety in this country. Do not lot it be supposed either that the Indian Government or her Majesty's Government are indifferent to the importance of the occasion, or that they are not taking all proper methods to strengthen and to secure the action of our troops. Everything that need be done, everything that can be done, is being done, and we are confident of the result. (Cheers.)"
It is hard to believe, without having heard it with our own ears, that such silly optimism could be talked to a shrewd Yorkshire audience, without exciting laughter, instead of the reported "cheers." Just consider this sentence :—" The events which have occurred, though they might modify in some small details the provisions which we had hoped to effect, yet still they do not affect the principles of the Treaty of Gundamuck." They make no difference but this,—that there is no friendly ruler of Afghanistan to make the treaty with ; that the ruler with whom that treaty was made is a captive in India ; that "the happy state of affairs" to be brought about, which is to make Afghanistan "strong," "friendly," and "inde- pendent," must now be delayed till our soldiers shall have stopped burning Afghan villages and hanging Afghan priests, and shall begin swearing friendship with them, building up again the dominion of their chiefs, and persuading the rest of the world to forget that for the last year we have done nothing but oppress and humiliate them. Sir Stafford Northcote might just as well have told his audience that the thaw which had occurred, "though it might modify in some small details the provisions which we had hoped to effect" for a great skating match, yet did not affect the principles of the arrange- ment. Optimism like his seems almost more fatuous than obstinate.
But Sir Stafford Northcote himself has hardly been more brilliantly mistaken in his fatal optimism than Lord Salisbury, who declared to the Bank-holiday makers at Hatfield, on August 3rd last, that "the most momentous Asiatic war that England had ever waged had been brought to a triumphant issue,' and had no words to describe in Parlia- ment his admiration of the ability shown by Lord Lytton, in carrying his Afghan policy to so splendid an issue. And Lord Cranbrook, the Secretary for India, has not been behind either of his colleagues. In the great speech in which he spoke of himself as addressing his own conscience, after declaring that the Afghan war was the only war for which this Government was responsible, he added "that the war had been conducted on terms of moderation and wisdom, and un- precedented respect for the feelings of the Afghans," and that no one could doubt that out of this war, at least, "England had brought peace with honour." Nor has the Under- Secretary for India been less sanguine than his chief. On August 14th, he made great boasts of the magnificent reception of our late Envoy who had not then above a few days more to live, and replying to predictions of Mr. Grant Duff's which have since been but too painfully verified, he said, "I suppose no one will revert to the dangers of placing an Envoy in Cabul that were mentioned in December, for all these prognostica- tions have been contradicted by subsequent facts. Major Cavagnari has been received most honourably, not only by the Ameer, but by the people of Oabul. I will next consider whether the Treaty has alienated the people of Afghanistan. The honourable and learned Member for Oxford has said that you have inspired the people of that country with such a hatred towards you, that all the ground you fail to occupy will be the fortress of your foes. The result has, however, gone to show that the occupation of Candahar, which is temporarily undertaken, with the friendly feelings of the inhabitants, has gained for this country a friendly, an independent, and a strong Afghani- stan. British influence is paramount in that country. Our frontier is secure to a degree that has never before existed,— at any rate for many years past,—and the Government are proud, as the country, in my opinion, ought to be proud, of the great exploits which have been accomplished by the Indian Govern- ment, mainly owing to the patient foresight and perseverance of Lord Lytton." Mr. Stanhope spoke at Leeds on Saturday, but then he appears to have said nothing of the pride which the country ought to feel in the Indian exploits of the Govern- ment. He left the optimism on that subject entirely to his leader, and perhaps that does show that Mr. Stanhope is capable of learning what Sir Stafford Northcote cannot learn, —that to adhere to your opinion after it has been confronted with hard fact and found worthless, is not a sign of political sanity.
But take the Government's prophecies on the Afghan policy as a whole, and we venture to say that from the Under- Secretary for India upwards to the Prime Minister, it is im- possible to find in the civilised world a group of statesmen prophesying smooth things so glibly and so ignorantly, and adhering to their false predictions with so imbecile an ob- stinacy, in the face of the most adverse blows of fate, Are these the men by whom the country is really willing to be guided in the time to come V
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