ANOTHER VOICE
If Mr Blair's lead in the polls continues to fall, what will become of all his supporters a la mode?
PETRONELLA WYATT
The other day I was sitting in a café with a friend who sometimes does publicity work for, and is acquainted with, such sup- porters of Tony Blair as Jeremy Irons, Stephen Fry, Sir Terence Conran, Anita Roddick and Richard Branson — the last three of whom might be said to form part of New Labour's Diligent Tendency.
Anyway, there we were, watching some women with impeccable maquillage navi- gate the street in front of us like painted Watusi leading a tribal dance. Suddenly my friend turned his head and said to me, 'I wonder what's going to happen to these people if Labour loses. Seriously, I wonder what is going to happen to their state of mind.'
I asked him what he meant by this. He replied that a number of Mr Blair's more fashionable supporters had begun to expe- rience something similar to what is known in medical circles as 'denial'. For the past two years they had been living in a continu- ous state of high-octane expectation, he continued. They had not once had to con- front the possibility of the impossible the impossible being that Labour might lose the election. The Tory 'recovery' had proved either illusory or unsustainable. That is, until now. 'The NOP poll', he said, `has had the effect on these people of a blanket-bombing raid on an open city. It has been devastating.'
To paraphrase Raymond Chandler, there are polls and then there are polls. The recent NOP survey published by the Sun- day Times fell into the latter category. It leapt off the page and socked you right in the face. It was the first poll that provided a real indication that we were in for a two- horse race. Labour's lead was down five points to 47 per cent — its lowest for three years; the Tories were up four to 33 per cent, which, by any standard, leaves victory within striking distance. Labour's official reaction to the poll was unusually telling. Mr Blair's close aides have sometimes admitted to journalists that their private polls indicated a smaller lead than those that were published in the news- papers. The day after the NOP poll one New Labour apparatchik commented, `These poll results are much closer to what we have always believed was the true state of public opinion.' True, but this statement was of greater interest for what it left out. If the public polls like NOP and Mori have a tendency to lag behind private polling, the true fig- ures probably indicate an even greater clos- ing of the gap between the parties. Labour's private polls, one would imagine, are now causing a minor panic.
Mr Blair and his supporters would be right to panic. This is because New Labour has been dependent on the polls to a greater degree than most modern demo- cratic political parties. New Labour, as an electoral prospect, is largely an artificial creation — the result of brilliant packaging, but not wholly real nonetheless. For this reason good poll results are inextricably connected with its political success. Mr Blair is also one of those politicians who pledges his supporters a Promised Land. This in turn creates a greater demand for certainty amongst those supporters. Once that certainty wavers the more volatile of them are likely to begin drifting away. This brings us back to 'celebrity' follow- ers like Sir Terence, Miss Roddick and Mr Branson. When asked whether such endorsements made a difference, one Labour official said, 'We would look really sad if we didn't have any.' The trouble is that 'celebrities' are rarely in the vanguard of political originality — hence their ten- dency to attach themselves to parties that reflect the views of the fashionable intelli- gentsia. People whose political opinions are largely dominated by fashion have no wish to think original thoughts. They desire only to think what is about to be thought , to say what is about to be said and to feel what is about to be felt.
Mr Blair has been very fashionable — he still is — but that is his great weakness as well as his great strength. Modishness attracts support that is more impressive for its noise than its depth. One has the feeling that Mr Blair is the political equivalent of `It's not his fault the tide is out . . this season's colour, brown. No one I know really likes brown, or at least has any great enthusiasm for it, but they are told it is the only thing in which to be seen.
It is strange, given his past triumphant showing in the polls, just how lukewarm many people are about Mr Blair as a per- son. A greater percentage of those polled by NOP now say they find Mr Major more trustworthy. I have always thought that there has been little sentimental attach- ment to Mr Blair, which separates him from his predecessors. Past Labour leaders seemed Romantic but Wrong. Mr Blair seemed Revolting but Right. But what if he is shown to be Revolting and Wrong?
Much of the momentum for Mr Blair is provided by people who lack political courage. I am not saying they do not want him to win. They do. This is less for politi- cal reasons, perhaps, than cultural ones. Miss Roddick, for instance, has suggested that for 17 years we have lived in a cultural gulag of Tory creation. These people have made little secret of what they intend to do `when Tony wins'. An acquaintance of mine told me that he almost voted Labour at the last election but changed his mind in the polling booth when 'I suddenly thought of the triumphalism of Margaret Drabble'. This seemed to me as good a reason as any for switching one's vote.
But, as Mr Blair's aides know very well, all but the most committed cultural cru- saders are unreliable allies. According to my friend in the café, as a result of the Sun- day Times NOP poll one well-known busi- nessman is seriously considering withdraw- ing his support for Mr Blair. High-profile business magnificoes are primarily — and understandably — concerned with being associated with 'winners'. It is good for business. As soon as Mr Blair begins to look less of a sure-fire certainty many of them will drift back to the Tories.
The New Labour luvvies', of course, are in a trickier position. They have nowhere else to go. If Mr Blair loses the election it is difficult to see how some of them will recover from the psychological blow.
From Finchley Road to Islington they're sobbing themselves to sleep.
The shrieks and wails in the Hampstead dales have even upset the sheep.
Even if the outlook isn't absolutely vile, for New Labour there may be bad times just around the corner.
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