A Spectator's Notebook
Over the period of four and a half years that have elapsed since the Irish troubles began, any action by Her Majesty's Government has been dangerously slow. In this considerable Period we have seen the abolition of Storniont, the election of an Assembly and the experiment with power-sharing. The first two developments were necessary but should have been undertaken sooner, and should have been part of an essential policy of keeping the Initiative in the hands of the Government. Prom my knowledge of Ireland and the Irish I cannot see power-sharing working. I don't think it could be macLe to work even if everyone in Northern Ireland wanted it to be a success. But, as we all know, this is far from the case. In any event the whole policy has been built on Messrs Faulkner ..and Fitt. Mr Faulkner, rightly or wrongly, is widely distrusted, not least by ministers of the British Government, and Mr Fitt is not one to set the heather ablaze. In Ireland personalities can Make more difference than they do in London, Which is one reason why the substitution of Mr Pym for Mr Whitelaw is not a happy one.
Time and chaos
We are told at intervals that there can be no tnilitary solution of the Northern Irish problem and at the same time we are also told that there can be no truck with terrorists. But the RA are a very real factor in the situation and k.ean neither be ignored nor totally defeated. moreover, the dilatory tactics of HMG over tohe last four years has meant the emergence Tr terrorist groups on the Protestant side. here are now stories of links between the IRA and the Libyans as well as the Basque ?le,Paratists and the kidnapping of Herr ledermeyer was a new and sinister developent. Time is on the side of chaos: not of the ritish Government. KT To me one of the stranger aspects of "orthern Irish affairs is the hostility of British Illinisters to Dr Paisley, I know him well and aoth like and respect him. His religion is toitlly genuine and always takes priority over la Political activities. He is a very dominant Personality and an excellent personality and excellent speaker not only in the idiom of rlfast but also in that of Westminster. There 1,1Els been more than one occasion on which it as been his influence that has headed off ,fIltninent civil war. Of course, being the man ,,,e is, he is apt to speak his mind. He regards "lost British ministers as pathetic little pupPsets and no doubt lets his opinion be plainly teen. He makes disrespectful remarks about we, Pope and hostile references to his Catholic i'llow-citizens. But much of this is traditional La Belfast however offensive it may sound in , ondon. Though he will not become the teader of the Unionist Party — this will Pdrobably be Mr West — he is bound to be a h9rninant figure in their councils. The cornnation of Ian Paisley, the extrovert, and his i f end Desmond Boal, the able barrister, is a cirrnidable one. The present Northern Ireland executive is rict well-based though it enjoys the support of the British and Irish governments. The first is 40a asset the second merely excites the sus NICIOnS of the rank and file Unionists. The a3ority of the Unionists in the Assembly and hut of it are not behind Faulkner. He seems to maye the support of the old Stormont ruling 'Anue, men like Brookborough, Abercorn, Trews and so on, but the balance of
ionist power has moved from the gentry to
the working-class whose language Faulkner does not speak. On the Catholic side the SDLP is in favour of power-sharing but has incurred the hostility of the IRA — and no one in Northern Ireland is in any doubt that it was the IRA, not the SDLP, which destroyed the old Stormont regime. Faulkner is said to have developed a good relationship with Cosgrave in Dublin and with Hume of the SDLP but it is questionable if these relationships will help. Cosgrave is up against constitutional difficulties in recognising the Northern Ireland regime, and in harrying the IRA he has to contend with the considerable sympathy and support they enjoy in the Republic.
It has to be remembered that the IRA are not just a bunch of killers, they have their own constitutional ambitions for the Republic as well as for the incorporation of the Six Counties. They would like to see four regional councils, one for each of the provinces, and they assume that for Ulster (all nine counties) there would be a Protestant majority. They also think that something should be done to ,halt the drift of population to the east. Would it be possible to have the administrative capital in Galway or Limerick?
For years I have been deeply interested in Irish affairs and it has seemed to me that the ultimate end of Irish politics must be a united and independent Ireland and that any steps that are taken must be aimed at this ultimate objective. Power-sharing is on the road to nowhere in particular.
No integration
The anti-Faulkner 'Unionists want full integration with England. This means that they would have the same powers as the local authorities in Manchester or Birmingham. In particular they demand control of the police and their full quota of MPs — twenty instead of the present twelve. The bi-partisan policy over Ireland would break down if the number of MPs were to be increased and while the army is active in Northern Ireland, the whole of security must remain in the hands of Westminster. In any case the full integration of the six Ulster counties with England is not
acceptable to the great English public. It is widely conceded in private that integration is not on, but no public declaration to that effect has so far been made by the Prime Minister. If and when it is so stated, the Loyalists will call for independence. This idea has been ridiculed in the media but seems to me the only way out of the box into which the British Government has manoeuvred itself. It has advantages for all parties concerned and, in the opinion of the Unionists and the IRA, would not lead to wholesale massacre of Catholics: the Unionists would get back their Stormont; the British Government would be enabled to withdraw the troops and it is Northern Ireland that is ruining recruiting; the IRA would regard independence for the Six Counties as a big step forward and would declare a truce. For them an independent Ireland in two parts is a big step towards unification and the withdrawal of British troops from Irish soil would be a big plus. The British Government would have to continue to subsidise the North, but on a declining scale.
Between Irishmen
I think a lasting agreement between Dublin and Belfast is much more likely if it is conducted between Irishmen and without meddling from London. However often Dr Paisley and shislike proclaim their loyalty to England, they are in fact very Irish. There is far more in common between the Protestants of Belfast and the Catholics of Dublin than between the Protestants of Belfast and the Protestants of London. I am not pretending that independence for Northern Ireland is the safe way to peace and prosperity. Irish politics are far too embittered for that, but it provides, I believe, the most promising road forward.
The big personality on the Unionist side is Dr Paisley. He is not the loud-mouthed bigot portrayed in the British press — and he'has come a long way in the last four years. More important than the SDLP on the Catholic side is the IRA. Men who are prepared to kill, but also to die, for their beliefs are not to be dismissed as mere terrorists. Their leader David O'Connell is no such thing and he, too, has learnt a lot in the recent past. I cannot help regarding Mr Faulkner and his friends as water over the dam. The only one in the group of whom more will be heard is Mr Peter McLachlan, still in his 'thirties, who in his day was the brightest civil servant in the Stormont administration in Terence O'Neill's time as Prime Minister.
Cecil King
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