TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE RESULT OF THE FRENCH ELECTIONS.
WE wish those Englishmen who despise the French as politicians would consider for a moment what the position of France would now be, if Frenchmen received the fair-play Englishmen would insist on. In 1875 the Assembly, invested by a free election with sovereign power, established a Republic and decreed a Constitution, under which that Re- publie is to be governed by a President and two co-ordinate Representative Houses. The Liberals, accepting the President chosen by the Assembly, although a Marshal avowedly devoted to Conservative opinions, endeavoured to use this Constitution by securing a majority in both Chambers. They contrived, by a judicious alliance with the Legitimists, to nominate three- fourths of the Life Members of the Senate, and the country sent them up as Senators nearly as many Liberals as Conservatives, leaving them, on the whole, with a trustworthy majority of about fifty, composed of reasonable, moderate, and experienced men. The Government, presided over by a narrow-minded statesman, full of belief in himself and distrust in popular sovereignty, strained every nerve to secure a majority of friends in the Chamber of Deputies, for which it believed it had many special advantages. M. Buffet had abolished the system of election by Departments, as too favourable to the Liberals, substituting election by districts, which raises official power to a maximum ; had then reduced the number of Members from 750 to 530 ; had then formed a union of all parties, however dissimilar, provided they were opponents of the Re- public ; and finally, had employed the whole of the immense resources of the central Government to seat his favoured candi- dates. He had induced the Marshal to issue a party mani- festo, had muzzled the Press, and had even ventured to silence M. Gambetta. The Liberals, on the other hand, organised and restrained by a favourite leader, M. Gambetta, fought perfectly fairly, using no material means, for they had none, and after a sharp struggle secured, on the lowest probable calculation, which gives them only a third of the undecided seats, 330 members, in a House of 530. They have thus a large majority in both Houses, provided with a leader, thoroughly organised, and with no " wings," except a few Orleanists in the Upper House and 18 intractable ultra-Reds in the Lower. Moreover, these majorities, considerable as they are, are less than their majority within the nation itself. M. Buffet's success has been in an inverse ratio to the population of the arrondissements, and it is calculated, by an observer by no means friendly to Radicals, that of the 7,500,000 Frenchmen who recorded their votes, no less than 6,000,000 gave them for the Liberal candidates of all shades. The pleliscite is even more unanimous than the election. And finally, the nation, as if to accentuate its opinion, has refused a seat to M. Buffet, whose policy was to disown the Republic, though he stood in four places, and has offered its four greatest seats to M. Gam- betta, whose policy is to make the Republic strong. Daring the conflict there have been no disorders, no appeals to popular passion, and no attempts at mob terrorism, the elections having passed off as quietly, as respectably, and as dully as if they had occurred in Massachusetts or the Eastern Counties.
Surely under such circumstances—and we have rather under-stated than over-stated them, saying nothing of the utter collapse of the fraction of Monarchist opinion to which M. Buffet properly belongs,—if France is a free country, the natural course of events is clear. M. Gambetta will be called to power under the Marshal-President, and with a majority in both Chambers, will proceed to describe and to carry out the policy of his party. He can form a good and mode- rate Cabinet, he has the obvious confidence of France, and he has experience as a ruler. We ask any fair- minded Englishman whether, if France were England, or even Germany, that would not be the expected course of affairs,—whether, in a proceeding like that, there would be any- thing wild or revolutionary? Nevertheless, we all know no such arrangement is considered possible. Marshal MacMahon does not choose to call M. Gambetta to his councils, and Marshal MacMahon is supposed to have the Army behind him, and therefore France, even if her electors were unanimous, cannot be permitted to have her own way. That is always the case in France. Whenever, by a sort of miracle of good-fortune,the country has roused itself to decide for itself upon its policy, there is always some man, or clique, or party strong enough to evade or refuse obedience to its command Sometimes it is the head of a foreign army, as before the Restoration ; sometimes an obstinate King, like Charles X. ; sometimes an astute trickster, like Louis Philippe ; sometimes a man like Napoleon III., who knows how to evoke the Red Spectre ; sometimes a calmly obstinate old General, like Marshal MacMahon ; but there is always some one. In the present instance, it is agreed on all hands that the utmost France can expect is to obtain a Ministry not decidedly hostile to her views, a Ministry of Conservatives who accept the Re- public. M. Buffet, of course, goes, but the President consults him as to who shall succeed him ; and M. Dufaure probably the least Liberal man in France who is honestly a Republican —a man of great age, and on many subjects, of incredible narrow ness of mind—is 'to form a Ministry in which three, four, or- more members of the defeated Cabinet are to retain their portfolios. It does not matter that this is not the Ministry which France has indicated. It does not matter that it can only stand by the support of the man who is thus excluded from it. It does not matter that it will be reluctant to carry out the policy which the country has pronounced for, or heartily enforce the laws necessary to make the Re- public real,—such, for instance, as laws restoring the rights of the Press and of public meeting. The Marshal so determines, and the Liberals will be told and will feel that it is wise, if it be only possible, to avoid an occasion of conflict with the Executive. And no doubt it is wise, though we deny that the- wisdom is of the kind which is compatible with a properly- organised Constitutional Government. There is no danger, as we believe, of the Marshal striking the coup rre'tat which is pressed on him by hot heads, and not much danger of dis- order, but there is danger of another kind. The triumph of the Liberals, and more especially of their leader, has been so complete, that any retarding force must be more or less favour- able to the permanent success of the Republic. It is a great thing to be rid of M. Buffet, the most impracticable Minister whom France has endured since the days of M. de Polignac.. It is a greater thing to have shown Marshal MacMahon that France, whether acting under delusion, as he thinks, or in a fit of sagacity, as we should argue, is at present resolved to try the Republican experiment. And it is the greatest thing of all, to have mastered both the Chambers so completely that reactionary legislation has become im- possible, that the advance of the country, however slow, can only be in one direction. These results are certain, and can only be endangered now by action too much in- advance of opinion, and this will be checked by a moderate and even timid Ministry, such as the Marshal will, it is be- lieved, be persuaded to appoint. Such a Ministry cannot be retrograde, for M. Gambetta's followers will prevent that, but it will be cautious enough to prevent the victorious party from alarming France, or from irritating the Kureaucracy- which, when united, is still as powerful as the Army—or from commencing an incurable quarrel with the Church. It will be able to make the party slow, and it is pace rather than the direction of movement which the Republicans, who have still to show that they can use power moderately, have now to dread. The Liberals have a constitutional right to a much more Liberal Ministry than they will obtain, but in securing one which is friendly instead of hostile to the Re- public, they secure a most important first step. The difference between the Marshal thinking of M. Fourtou, and the Marshal doubting whether M. Dufaure is Liberal enough, is one which covers a wide chasm in French politics.
Two other broad facts of great importance come out in these elections. The Bonapartists have not yet recovered the confidence of anything approaching to a majority of the popu- lation. They may recover it, if the Republic blunders, or if the Prince Imperial proves an attractive politician, but they have not recovered it yet. They have enjoyed the ?benevolent neutrality of the Government, but they have not returned a clear fifth of the Deputies, or secured a clear seventh of the electors. On the other hand, the electors have shown that they can, when so inclined, maintain their independence against the Government machinery. M. Buffet is not M. Rouher, either in unscrupulousness or in ability ; but he did all he could, he controlled all officials, he had the avowed sympathy of the Head of the State, and the people voted him down with a unanimity of dislike which, if it were possible to pity a doc- trinaire of his school, a political Inquisitor-General, would excite a feeling of regret for his overwhelming fall. If France can thus make herself heard, in spite of all coercion, France may hope, for she can learn anything from events.
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