HARVEST PROSPECTS. A LTHOUGH the time has come for the beginning
of harvest in the early districts, the corn-crops are so backward that no wheat of any consequence is likely to be cut for at least another fortnight, even if we are favoured with fine weather in the meantime ; while a rainy period would defer the start still longer. This lateness is a great inconvenience to farmers, to say the least of it, and it is only too likely to be something worse. A late harvest is usually a protracted one, for several reasons. In the first place, the days get shorter, and the working-hours are • more contracted than daylight is, owing to the morning and evening dew. Then gales, and often storms of rain, are likely to occur in September, and the sun's rays have less drying power to render corn fit for stacking after being wetted. Mildew, too, is more likely to attack corn in late than in early harvests. Lastly, the valuable fallowing work of the early autumn is cut short when horses which should be ploughing and harrowing are engaged in carting corn. We might have placed first in the list of disadvan- tages the fact that, as a rule, a late harvest is not as productive as an early one ; but we are glad to believe that the rule will not hold good in the present season. Backward maturity is always the result of meteorological disadvantages, and these prevailed persistently enough during the intensely cold and protracted winter and the winterly spring. But since the end of May there have been uncommonly great compensations. June was one of the most propitious of months for the healthy and steady growth of the cereals, and although July, so far, has beea too unsettled to promote the rapid maturing of the corn, it has been free from the deluges of rain which inflicted so much damage in recent seasons. The frequent showers have been worse for the haymakers than for the corn- growers, and here we see another disadvantage of a late season. Under ordinary circumstances, the bulk of the hay-crop would have been ready for curing during June, when the weather was admirably suited to the operation. But neither grass nor clover crops were mature enough to be cut to advantage until quite the end of June or later, and the consequence is, that comparatively little hay has escaped wetting by the rains which have occurred so frequently during two of the last three weeks. Owing to the extreme dryness of the winter and spring, the crops stood the prolonged period of cold weather almost with impunity, and although not more advanced at the end of May than they often are in the middle of April, they were generally healthy and of fairly vigorous habit. The warm and not too dry June gave them a fine opportunity of making rapid headway, and the important function of fructification was effected, at least as far as the wheat and barley crops were concerned, during warm and generally still weather. Thus, there is good reason to hope that the ears, which are of a goodly size as a rule, will be well filled. The straw is somewhat short in most parts of the country ; but the crops stand all the better on that account, which explains why they have not at all generally been badly laid by the heavy rains which have fallen on two or three recent occasions. Observations made throughout great tracts of country in all the prin- cipal corn districts of England, have brought to sight fine standing crops of wheat, remarkably level and well-eared, and splendid pieces of barley, as the prevailing features of the corn-fields. There are thin pieces, of course, but fewer than usual; while there are not as many very heavy crops as may be seen in some seasons. In short, the wheat and barley crops promise to yield a full average of grain, or a little more, in the event of the weather being favourable during the rest of the season. The oat-crop, on the other hand, is not well up to the mark as a rule, and the same may be said of beans, both crops having been stunted beyond complete recovery by the cold, dry spring. A fair crop of peas is generally expected, and, considering the unfavourable character of the early part of the season, this summary of the condition of the cereals in England is one for congratulation. It is to be borne in mind, however, that results will depend mate- rially upon the character of the weather up to and during harvest. During the last few days there has been more rain than farmers like to see when the corn is beginning to ripen. In Scotland, the recovery from the retarding effects of the cold season has been slower in coming, and even now the barley-crop is less promising than it is in England ; while oats, the principal cereal, are apparently a little better. The wheat-area of Scotland is smaller than that of many an English county, and therefore does not count for much in a general review of the out- look for harvest. In Ireland, the prospects all round are as favourable as they are in England. It is particularly gratifying to learn that in all three divisions of the King- dom the potato-crop is luxuriant in growth, and at present free from the dreaded disease. At least, no report of disease has come before us. As for the rest. of the produce of the soil, there is a fair outlook for hops and for some kinds of fruit, but not, unhappily, for apples ; while the hay-crop is a passable one, and roots now promise to do well.
Turning to foreign countries, we find much to be thank- ful for in our insular position, for the winter crops in most European countries suffered very much more than our own. In France, as is well known, a very large pro- portion of the winter-wheat crop was spoilt, and had to be ploughed up, the land being resown with spring wheat and other spring corn. The consequence is, that France will have the greatest deficiency on record, and will need to import a quantity of wheat not far short of that which we annually require, though the recent fine weather has greatly improved the spring wheats. In Austria- Hungary, Germany, and all countries in the West of the Continent, and in Italy also, estimates—some of them official—put the wheat-crop at 15 to 20 per cent. less than that of last year. Next to France, however, Russia appears to be in the worst predicament in respect of the wheat.crop. We need not believe all the extremely alarmist accounts which have lately come from Russia ; but there is no doubt that the wheat-crop of the Empire is one of the smallest grown there in recent years, and that the surplus for export will be a small one. In Roumania and other Danubian countries, a fine harvest is being secured, and they will be able to export wheat on the usual scale ; but it is a serious matter to consider that Russia and Hungary, the two great wheat-exporting countries of Europe, will probably have very little to spare this year,—that is, after Hungary has supplied the need of Austria. The case is made all the worse by the deficiency of the rye-crop in nearly every country of Europe ; for, as rye is the staple food of a very great majority of the European peasantry, its shortness will, in effect, make the wheat deficiency so much the greater. Quantitative estimates made at present are little better than mere guesses, and it is too early to state what the net deficiency of Europe will be. It will certainly be very much greater than it has been in any recent year; but the recuperative effects of the fine summer may have proved greater than they are commonly supposed to have been, and we must wait for preliminary results before forming a judgment. We know enough, however, to conclude that nothing but the bounti- ful American crop has saved Europe from the prospect of a scarcity of wheat which would have been felt severely by the poor. As it is, America is expected to have a sur- plus for Europe of some eighteen million quarters, which is about the quantity we are likely to require, and is not half the expected net deficiency of Europe as a whole. It is true that India reaped a wheat-crop about three million quarters greater than that of last year, and might, under ordinary circumstances, send to Europe six million quarters. But two and a half millions had been exported by the end of June, and the dreaded failure of other grain. crops, to be harvested in the autumn, renders it doubtful whether a good deal of the remaining quantity, intended for export, will not be required to stave off famine. We do not doubt, however, that by drawing as freely as possible upon minor sources of supply and upon stocks usually held in reserve, enough wheat will be obtained to supply the needs of the European population. It is only a question of price, and if values get up considerably above the level of recent years, we need not grudge the long-tried wheat-growers a good turn. The worst of it, from this point of view, is, that needy farmers will pro- bably have sold most of their wheat before any substantial rise takes place ; for, so long as the markets are well sup- plied, the trade takes but small notice of what is called the statistical position. Trust in always getting all the wheat that is required has become so deeply rooted in the minds of buyers by the experience of many years of plenty, that it is not disturbed, as we see by present market quotations, by the prospect of a quite exceptional deficiency in the world's production.
Previous page
