The birth rate
Sir: Auberon Waugh tells us (Crowing old gracefully, 11 February) that a decline in live births from 980,000 in 1966 to 676,000 in 1976 is a drop of very nearly 45 percent. I have tried 'a little time with a calculator' (the Waugh way), a lot of time with a cal culator, slide rule, long division, mental arithmetic, and even mustered the 120 fin gers, thumbs and toes of my immediate family; alas, the arithmetic is inexorable and the correct answer is 31 per cent. Mr Waugh could have said correctly that there were 45 per cent more live births in 1966 than in 1976. Although this does not affect the gravamen of Mr Waugh's argument, he makes two other points which merit comment.
Firstly, he says 'the contraceptive pill has been going for eighteen years now', the implication being that it has been a constant factor throughout the period. This is not so. Like any new product it takes time for it to become established and usage has grown throughout the period at. varying rates. In fact usage is still growing, albeit slowly, but even now it is used by only about 25 per cent of women of child-bearing age. Whilst I do not believe the pill is the only reason for the decline in the birth rate, I think it must be an important one and the phenomenon is not confined to Britain.
This leads to my second comment. Mr Waugh speculates on the influence of economic insecurity and concludes that there is no clear evidence that it results in a decline in births. It is noticeable that in West Germany, its substantial Catholic population and prosperity notwithstanding, the birth rate of 9.5 per 1000 population (1975) is much lower than the comparable UK figure of 12.4.
Mr Waugh's explanation 'a decline in rigid religious beliefs has made the creation of new life a rather pointless exercise in self-denial' may well be another cause. The only safe conclusion is that there are many influences which reduce the birth rate but it seems impossible to establish simple cause and effect and rely on statistical extrapolations. The Registrar-General's department has learned this to its cost. ' Peter McKenna Oak Lodge, St. John's Road, Hazlernere High Wycombe, Bucks
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