Trigger Fingers
AFTER all these years of disappointments, it is hard to summon up much enthusiasm for the reopening of the Geneva conference on the abolition of nuclear tests. Still, the fact remains that both sides, East and West, are more dis- posed to be co-operative; partly because of the growing recognition that China is the greatest danger, ultimately, to world peace; and partly because the implications of the spread of nuclear weapons to countries outside the club are so disturbing.
In a sense, the old, vexed issues of disarma- ment, inspection and control no longer have the importance they seemed to have a few years ago. A balance has been found: the deterrents, on both sides, really deter. In Encounter's April issue Professor P. M. S. Blackett demolishes the dangerous argument that has been put forward by some experts that the possession of thermo- nuclear weapons gives an enormous advantage to an aggressor. On the contrary, Professor Blackett insists, the risk to the aggressor from effective retaliation is now so great that there is little danger of any rational statesman plan- ning, let alone launching, an aggressive war: the main risk is from the 'irrational acts of irre- sponsible, frightened, humiliated, revengeful or just mad people'—a risk that must increase, the more fingers there are on the nuclear trigger.
Surprisingly, Professor Blackett discounts Polaris in his argument, on the assumption that the number of Polaris missiles now operationally deployed is too small to make much difference. But the Russians cannot know exactly how many retaliatory missiles could be flung at them out of the sea in the event of a war; and they could not predict when or where they would fall. Uncertainty, in such circumstances, is often more effective than a display of massive but predict- able force. But if, with or without Polaris, the balance of deterrence is now fairly stable, the chief need is to concentrate not on disarmament or inspection but on finding some way to pre-
'Was it Mr. Butler you wanted to see, Sir, or Mr. Guihkell?' vent the spread of nuclear weapons to nations which do not now possess them.
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