Germany In Flux
BY SIR ANDREW MCFADYEAN.
Tun philosophy of Heraclitus seems peculiarly applicable to the present circumstances of the political and economic world ; nothing is static, and everything is in a state of flux.
Nothing is, and everything is becoming. The world is a dynamic organism, in which every action sets up a reaction, until we seem to be involved in a whole series of vicious circles. We cannot have disarmament until we have security ; we cannot have security until we have disarma- ment. Economic difficulties create political unrest ; political unrest aggravates and prolongs economic depression. Inter- national mistrust actuates national policies ;• nationalism increases international "disco-ordination." The series could be continued; and all these oppositions, if no way is found to transcend them, will end by paralysing action, instead of stimulating and co-ordinating it.
Germany is a conspicuous instance of organic " becoming " rather than of" being." Mr. Roll may or may not be right in holding that "Germany is to-day the weakest link in the chain of economic collaboration and the most dangerous potential source of political disturbance " ; he is undoubtedly right in maintaining that the economic, political and social factors in Germany, acting and reacting on each other, must be considered as a whole if we wish to understand any one aspect of German life, and in a short compass he succeeds in giving a very fair and not unsympathetic account of the deeper national currents.
The present situation is difficult for any of us to under- stand : first, because it changes so rapidly ; and, secondly, because to-day's German Government is intent on stifling the expression of public opinion, and particularly of international public opinion. German press organs which are inimical to the Government are ruthlessly suppressed, foreign correspondents are quite clearly working under an inhibition, and foreign journals expressing views unpalatable to Herr Hitler are to be prohibited imports. Recognizing the handicap thus imposed upon us, let us enumerate, without any attempt to be ex- haustive, some of the basic elements which have helped to create the present situation and must to some extent affect its further development.
First, and most obviously, the German nation as a whole has for nearly fifteen years been smarting under a sense of injustice. Few will now deny that they were the victims of a stupid reparation policy—indeed, that they are its victims, for every penny paid in the past was borrowed abroad and has yet to be repaid. Few will deny again that crass stupidity, based on that most disturbing of emotions, fear, has put the rest of Europe in a position where moral right is on the German side in the question of disarmament.
Secondly, the social structure of Germany has been pro- foundly modified by the War and its aftermath, and is dan- gerously unstable. Inflation destroyed the savings of the middle classes, and few of the population feel that they have anything to lose but their lives ; when it is doubtful whether life is worth living, its value is rated perilously low. This wholesale destruction of savings has resulted in an acute oVercrowding of the professions and the salaried classes ; the figures of unemployment do not therefore tell more than half the story. The unemployed workman tends to become a Communist and the unemployed blackcoated worker a Nazi. Incidentally, the diversion of a whole stratum of society from leisure, from the Army, the Navy and official services into other professions and business helps to explain, but in no Spotlight on Germany. , By Erich Roll. (Fabe,r and Faber. 7s. 6d.)
The German Paradox. By A. Plutynski. (Wishart: 623.) way to condone, the feeling against the Jews, who built up Germany's economic and commercial life before the War while the stratum in question attended to its politics and administration.
Thirdly, inflation did more than destroy savings ; it weakened morality. Within recent years there have been grave scandals, not only in business—first-class business and financial scandals have unfortunately arisen in every country—but in the civil administration, which used to be what Caesar's wife was' required to be. Administration has been further corrupted in another and a subtler fashion ; the tenure of important civil appointments has been determined by political affiliations at feast as much as by merit and fitness.
Fourthly, there is a real agrarian problem, and it involves a grave conflict of interest between the agricultural producer and the industrialist. East Prussia is a part, but only a part of that problem ; it is not a part which is likely to be solved, as Herr Plutynsky naively suggests, by a completer separation of that province from the Reich. The association of Herren Hugenberg and Hitler is likely to be short-lived unless they can agree upon a workable policy, which will recognize the necessity of a low cost of living in the interest of that export trade without which Germany can neither pay her commercial debts nor continue to import. - Lastly, it cannot be too strongly emphasized that the German people is politically inexperienced. Democracy requires an association of statesmanship with political ability which was necessarily in short supply ; that these gifts or qualities were combined in Stresemann is part of the explanation of his success. The old discipline, imposed from above and strengthened by military institutions, has not been replaced by corporate civic discipline.
We shall do well, as informed observers warn us, to suspend judgement on the question whether Hitler, out of the pro- gramme made up of irreconcileable principles which has carried him to power, can evolve a policy which will meet the difficulties of a terribly involved internal situation. So far he has been purely destructive, and the only piece of destruction which may simplify rather than complicate the future has been the weakening of the power of the States.
His immediate problems, if the danger of civil war is to be effectively suppressed, are clear. In the first place he must restore internal order, and here he is faced with one of the antinomies mentioned above ; will he hold that internal security must precede disarmament, or will he recognize that the existence of armed and one-sided force is incompatible with security ? Can he reverse the tide set in motion by lieutenants with a pre-War mentality, and above all call a halt to Jew baiting, which is about as sensible politically and economically as specialist baiting in Russia ?
In the second place, he must restore international confi- dence. There can be no economic or financial stability in Germany without it, since upon it depends the ability of Germany to fund an overhanging mass of short term indebted- ness. This problem is second in time, though not in import- ance, for international confidence will never be granted unless internal security is re-established.
The passage from rhetoric to constructive action—from "-bamboozlement " to" debamboozlement "—will be difficult and testing. We are constantly exhorted to regard the events of the last few weeks as constituting a revolution ; we may perhaps do well to remember the Chinese sage who recently remarked to his European interlocutor that it was rather too soon to pass judgement on the success of the French Revo2ution. •
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