Good soldiers?
Jim Higgins
In that fine novel The Good Soldier Schweik, there is an episode, early on in the volunle4 where Schweik through no fault of his ovill is immured in a hospital ward for malinger" ers. There the sick and infirm are encour; aged to volunteer for the front by liberal, does of aspirin and vigorous applications ‘3.1 the stomach pump and the clyster. When lt came to Schweik's turn for the treatment he smiled sweetly and said, 'Don't spare ire; it's your duty to the Emperor. . Try hat° to think that Austria rests on these clysters and victory will be ours'. And so it see01.5, with a majority of trade union members, " the latest opinion polls are to be trusted. The three per cent, plus tax concessions; package has, apparently, the support 01 over two thirds of organised workers. A truly magnificent response for Mr Heall. and a tribute, perhaps, to the complexity 0 the deal. Consider: since last August wage increases have been running at a rate of ten per cent while inflation has been running 3t Something in excess of twenty per cent. The budget policy will introduce a limit of three Per cent for wage increases plus two Per cent in tax concessions at a time when Inflation, at the Chancellor's best—and highlY optimistic—estimate, will be running at ten per cent. Whichever way you write the figures, and the Treasury is developing a fine line in tortured dialectics on the subJect, it represents two years of declining living standards. Not only that the rates of inflation on snob items as electricity, gas, public transPort and food—all items bearing most heavilY on working class budgets—will inevitably rise faster than average Prices. T,rulY the average worker will have to close hIS eyes and think of England. It does not end there either. A small item, not much noticed by the commentators °r probably by all the trade unionists 9uestioned, is that the present six pound litnit is a supplement to wages not an addiii" to hourly rates. In consequence it is not calculated for overtime and other premium Payments. It will also not be part of the calculation of any percentage increase in st als c two. Which means that the man getting £66 per week now will have his next increase calculated on £60. Further to that, it is still unclear as to whether the Increases under stage two will also be eounted a supplement rather than an Integral part of the hourly rate. This of Course is particularly useful to those firms and industries who have a deal of overtime and shift working but it could be very dangerous in the future. At some stage it will become a part of trade union strategy to get et3osolidation of all the supplementary additions. When that becomes irresistible it at one fell swoop, add as much as ;‘,!!een Per cent to certain companies' wage "Ills, in additional premium payments. , But for all that a majority of trade unionists are showing an admirable degree of altruism about the budget proposals though there are still a number of obstacles to over
me. First of these is the problem of the
To date the members of the General f',-otincil have been unnaturally quiet, apart ,mthe ritual negotiating stance of saying: It S not enough'. But the apparent calm eXterior and the evident desire to come to an accommodation with the Government nlask a considerable disagreement between tylle leading trade union figures. Mr Jack 'ones may have abandoned the flat rate sche rne out there are still those who seethe 'St interest of their members served in just Stich a scheme. Mr Scanlon takes the view at a Much larger percentage-only scheme 15. the way to restore differentials and keep Lnis. skilled members quiet. All other things ueing equal he is probably right. Mr Jones, eager to regain his position as the Main architect of any agreement, has Produced a plan for a five per cent increase, 12Itts the tax concessions, that would be ui‘sed on established bargaining units. The fl gUre of five per cent would be calculated °n the global wage bill and apportioned according to the priorities decided by' the unions. Such a plan would have the advantage of introducing some flexibility into bargaining and allow regrading schemes with differential increases such as might have avoided the recent Leyland difficulties. I say, 'might have avoided' because there would be considerable difficulty in persuading production workers to forgo part of their rise for the more highly skilled toolmakers. That is Mr Jones's scheme and because it is his it must be taken seriously. Indeed, leading figures on the TUC's Economic Committee were rather miffed to find that the only trade union leader permitted an audience, so far, with Mr Callaghan was Mr Jones. Leading to the suspicion that he was getting the inside track before an agreed policy had been hammered out within the TUC.
In some ways, though, these are marginal considerations. The TUC will arrive at a deal with Healey and Foot. It may be rather more inflationary than the ideal set out in the budget but not much more. The TUC, along with the overwhelming majority of their members, are now convinced that one man's increase is another man's price rise. It does not matter that this is an oversimplified view of economics: it is believed, and that is what counts.
The worry for the Government is not the achievement of some kind of deal; it is how long any deal will stick. In the unlikely event that all goes smoothly and phase two holds the line for a further twelve months from next August, it will be the longest period of wage restraint since Sir Stafford Cripps. Sir Stafford had all the advantage of a hangover of wartime controls and siege economy and a much lower level of expectation among the work force. Since then a great deal has changed and, as Mr James Prior sadly remarked in the Financial Times this week, 'Public opinion is schizophrenic. it hates the abuse of power and yet does not support a government which stands up to the abuseof power by certain trade unions at the national and shop floor
In this extremely truthful point Mr Prior gets to the heart of the problem and raises the fundamental question: How schizophrenic are the two thirds of trade unionists who accept the Healey package? That is a question that the TUC, Mr Healey and the rest would dearly like to know the answer to. On the estimation of how long the altruism will last must certainly depend the date of the next general election. With this in mind my money is on for October 1976.
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