LETTERS TO THE EDITOR.
[Letters of the length of one of our leading paragraphs are often more read. and therefore more effective, than those which fill treble the space.] THE PACIFIC PROBLEM.
(To THE EDITOR. or THE " SPECTIT011."3 Sia,—Will you permit one whose personal acquaintance with the Pacific Ocean was begun many years ago, who has repeatedly traversed its wide areas, and who has visited nearly every one of the countries that form its shores, to express, and give reasons for, the opinion that the interest at present taken in Pacific conditions—though immediately occasioned by the current discussion of the scope of the Anglo-Japanese treaty
and the possibility of naval " disarmament "—is really due to far more extensive considerations and to deep, but still vague and nnformulated, apprehensions?
Eighteen years ago, when in the Far East, I ventured to state in black and white that Asia was not going to allow itself to be treated by Europe in the twentieth century as it had been in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries; and that Japan would see to it that this should be so. In this there was and is no reflection on the loyalty of the Japanese Government. I had, as it happened, special opportunities of observing the mind and procedure of the higher Japanese officials; and it would have been impossible to meet with men more honourable and straightforward. Governments, however, come and go; conditions change; national opinion, like other things, " de- velops." A generation passes away; others succeed in turn, each modifying the opinion that prevailed in its predecessor. There is no reasonable ground for expecting that the national opinion in a Far Eastern country will be in all respects in, say, 1941 what it is in 1921.
Within the lifetime of men not yet past middle age nearly the whole continent of Asia has undergone an immense transforma- tion, a transformation undreamed of forty years ago. Japan has become, or at any rate has approximated to, a "constitu- tionally " governed country. So has Persia, though less cer- tainly. China has expelled the Manchu autocrats and has at least tried to set up a republic. The vast Indian Peninsula now tas " representative " legislative institutions. Institutions of a similar pattern are being adopted or clamoured for by Arabs. The state of Siberia, whatever it really is, differs much from that which it was a dozen years since. The now conditions may well he expected to lead to Asiatic solidarity against the Occident.
That Asia is already throwing off or escaping from European domination and guidance is visible to those who care to look closely into affairs. It is here that we may discover ground for the apprehensions alluded to at the beginning of this letter. When the European domination or guidance has gone, what is Asia going to de? Have its revenge on the West? Is there any inherent improbability in a twentieth century repetition of the movements of Darius and Xerxes, of Mahomet's early successors, of Attila, of Genghis Khan, of Tamerlane, of Mehemet II.? Asia will be materially as well equipped as any contemporary nation of the West; and, most likely, united beyond all historical precedent.
Suppose that Asia calls upon Japan to lead in a great counter- Oecidental movement, will it be possible for Japan, say a quarter of a *eatery hence, to disregard the call? Is there any reason for enplaning that Japan, by the time just indicated, will not desire, and prove her ability, to make of China what the British have made of India? Try to conceive what a Japan directing the resources of a vast territory and the high qualifi- cations of four hundred millions of an exceptionally intelligent, industrious, and hardy people could manage to effect. This would help to ensure the coherence of the Asiatic nations.
There seems to be one way, and only one way, of preventing altogether, or at the least robbing of its terrors, the Asiatic movement above hinted at. That way is to establish a real and lasting solidarity between America and Europe, beginning with co-operation and general unity of aim in the Pacific on the part of the United States and the British Empire. If the United States, backed as far as possible by the British Empire, will regard the Pacific as Western Europe for so long had to regard the Atlantic, an aggressive Asiatic movement against— not merely Europe, but the West (including America)—will be frustrated; indeed, it will not be likely to be begun. In view of what is apprehended, naval measures may hereafter become as important in the Pacific as we all know that they used to be in the Atlantic. Of course, this is no argument against general and honest naval "disarmaments."—I am, Sir, &c.,
CYPRIAN A. G. BRIDGE.
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