The Lausanne Conference
it 4 impossible not to be impressed with the extent to which, ever since the War, the process of financial recuperation has been hindered in almost every country by the deadly influence of Party politics. At the end of 1918, in this country the desire to win a political victory was responsible for the people of Great Britain being deluded by the idea that great prosperity was to follow the War and that the country was likely to be richer rather than poorer as the result of the four years' conflict. And when we turn to countries such as the United States, Germany and France it will be found that at many periods of the past decade, although the various Governments in office may have desired to pursue a certain line of policy calculated to restore international confidence and to meet international trade generally, these Godernments have been held back by the knowledge that their measures would probably be combated by political parties who were prepared to make the financial and economic problems the mere sport of Party politics.
I am constrained to make these observations concerning Party politics in view of their influence upon the present problem of Reparation Payments and International Debts. While I am unable, perhaps, to endorse the view of those who affirm that in the satisfactory solution of this problem is to be found the complete solution of the world crisis, there is no doubt that a definite final settle- ment of War Debts and Reparations along lines calculated partially to restore the present disequilibrium of inter- national indebtedness and the trade balance would give a tremendous stimulus to international confidence and international trade.
IMPENDING ELECTIONS.
Before this article appears in print we shall doubtless haie learned the decision reached with regard to the Lausanne Conference, but already the City, rightly or wrongly, is expecting either that the Conference will be Postponed for a period or that, if held in about a week's time, it will .be of brief duration, resulting in an adjournment for a few months, with an extension, meanwhile, of the Reparations moratorium to Germany, possibly until nearly the end of the year. And this view is based upon a recognition of the fact that policy in at least three of the countries chiefly concerned, namely, France, Germany and the United States, is swayed at the moment by a knowledge of impending local elections. If, therefore, so runs the argument, any important decision were to be reached by Government representatives at an immediate Conference, it could prob- ably. be only along the lines of an extension of the moratorium tb Germany, say, for another two years, and inasmuch as there is little likelihood of Germany under such conditions being able to fulfil those obligations at the end of that period, the.world would be faced with another two years of uncertainty of a character detrimental to a return of public confidence.
INTERDEPENDENCE OF NATIONS.
In this country; which throughout has taken the sanest and Most impartial view of the whole problem of international debts, the opinion is now very firmly held that if there is to be an early solution of the world crisis it is essential that before the: present year 'doses the problem of - Reparation Payments . and International Debts shall be settled once and for all. It is hoped, therefore, that, say, in six months' time, the Executive Governments in France and Germany may be in a stronger position to pursue what may be regarded as the soundest policy, being then freed from the handicap of - impending elections. It is true that in the chief creditor country (the United States), the Presi- dential Election will then be approaching, but, at all events, the turmoil incidental to the period or nominations will have passed. Not only so, but, judging from the present trend of financial and economic develop- ments in the 'States, it would not be surprising if during the coming. months the course of events were to be of a character bringing home still more forcibly not only to the Executive, but to the whole people of the United States, the fact that even in that great and wealthy country a return of public confidence . and prosperity must largely depend upon a solution of the world crisis
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