23 FEBRUARY 1974, Page 12

Paddington

A local correspondent "This," said Tory headquarters, "is the most crucial constituency in the election." and with the television cameras and national newspapers descending on the candidates as they go from doorstep to shopping precinct, you might be forgiven for thinking so. There is no doubt that behind the fixed smiles of the candidates, there is a grim struggle for survival. For the seats of two MPs, Nicholas Scott of Paddington South and Arthur Latham of Paddington North, have been merged into the one constituency and both candidates are fighting for the seat. On a crude, redistributive basis, the Labour Party has a majority of 442 votes but there are a great many imponderables in this election. Paddington is 'bed-sit' land and there is something like a 30 per cent movement of constituents since the last general election.

Local issues may well play a conclusive part in the campaign. The massive increase of rents is one that is mentioned by both parties, and it is difficult to believe that the Labour Party will not benefit from this. There is also a large immigrant population in the constituency, which the Labour Party claims as their own but which Mrs Scott, former Deputy Director of the Runnymede Trust and a worker for the Race Relations Board, will be able to appeal to on grounds of her principles and her actions. The Liberal Party will be intervening; my guess is that they will do relatively poorly, and whatever votes they do collect will be from the Conservative Party, which, however, may have the edge.