TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE DUKE D'AUMALE.
THE entrance of the Duke d'Aumale into the French Assembly is an important event, but the special corre- spondents seem to us to misunderstand its meaning. Read by the light of the previous negotiations and of the votes in the Assembly, that entrance shows, no doubt, that the representative man of the Orleans family thinks that the time has arrived for action, and that a very large party within the Chamber, possibly a majority, sympathize with his decision, but it does not show that the Republic is about to pass away. The situation as we read it was in this wise :—The Duke d'Aumale—we omit the Prince de Joinville from the discussion, as a man unlikely, if only from physical infirmities, to take a prominent part in affairs—was elected to the Assembly before peace was made, was warned that his appearance would embarrass the progress of public business, then in a most critical condition, and pledged himself to M. Thiers and a Committee of the Assembly not to take his seat. This pledge he has religiously observed. Deeming circumstances much changed by the elevation of M. Thiers to the Presidency, and hearing his own inaction set down to irresolution, the Duke desired the President in a personal interview to release him from his engagement. M. Thiers, aware that the moment the Duke entered the Chamber the majority would regard him as the alternative man, at first refused, then hesitated,—being perhaps embarrassed by his old relation to the House, perhaps merely irresolute from age,—and finally declared that decision rested with " a power above himself," that is to say, the " Sovereign " Assembly. The Duke thereupon requested, through one of his followers, an opinion from that body, and the Chamber after a fierce debate decided on Monday, though in a very singular and hesitating manner, in his favour. The original mover, M. Desjardins, proposed that the Assembly should " invest the Deputies for the Oise and Haute Marne—the two Princes—with the plenitude of their rights," and the Govern- ment as a counter-proposal suggested that it should pass on to the Order of the Day. This latter suggestion was rejected by 358 to 273, but the motion of M. Desjardins was also lost by 360 votes to 294, the majority shrinking ap- parently from a vote which would be interpreted in the country as distinctly monarchical. M. Fresneau, Moderate Orleanist, perceiving this latent fear, introduced before the vote was taken another motion, declaring that " The Assembly, considering that it has no responsibility to assume nor advice to offer on engagements in which it had no part, and of which it cannot be a judge, passes to the Order of the Day." The words " of which it cannot be a judge " were disliked by the personal supporters of the Duke d'Aumale as implying a reproof, they were withdrawn by the mover without vote, the revised motion was then put, and the Assembly accepted it almost with unanimity, only two members in a House of 648 still resisting it. The effect of this clearly was, that as the Government claimed no pledge—a point strongly reaffirmed in debate by the Minister of the Interior, M. Casimir Perier- and the Assembly claimed no pledge, declining even to consider whether there was one, the Duke stood released from pledges and entitled to his seat. He accordingly took it on Tuesday, the Members in the train from Paris by which he reached Versailles falling back respectfully to allow him and his brother to walk on alone, and the Assembly receiving him with considerable agitation.
The Duke d'Aumale took his place in the Right Centre, among the Moderate Conservatives, and the course of action attributed to him alike, by friends and enemies appears to be some- thing like this:—He will take the earliest opportunity of making a declaration of principles, that is, a speech in which he will declare his preference for Constitutional Monarchy over all other forms of government, and his readiness to submit in that, as in all things, to the national will, if expressed through the legitimate mouthpiece of the nation, the Representa- tive Chamber. The majority, reinvigorated by this statement, which will conciliate all the Monarchists not de- voted to the White Flag, the Moderate Republicans, and the Orleanists, will, it is imagined, take advantage of any popular opportunity to break with M. Thiers, who is totally at variance with them on four cardinal points of policy, will accept his resignation, and will raise the Duke d'Aumale to the Presidency of the Republic. They flatter themselves that with their support, with a strong Orleanist like M. Casimir Perier at the Home Office, and an obedient soldier like Marshal Mac-
Mahon in command of the Army, the Duke may either govern France for a time in security, until some event such as a suc- cessful campaign gives him still greater power, or may even with the aid of their vote rebuild at once the Parliamentary throne, which will be so like the President's Chair when occupied by a Royal Prince that the difference will scarcely be perceived. This programme is at once clear, decided, and legal, and if the Chamber really represented the country, there can be little question that it might succeed. The soldiery would probably adhere to any visible Head of the State armed with legal authority, the Republicans could not deny the logical right of the majority of electors to fix the form of government, and the. Ultras would for the second time be compelled to submit to- force. But then the Chamber as at present constituted does not represent the country. It is perfectly well understood that what- ever may be the desire of the French people as to the permanent form of government, the country gentlemen who at present fill the Chamber will at the next election be sent to the right- about and new men sent up to Versailles, and until this has been done the Republicans would not hold themselves bound by the votes of such a body. They would regard the proclamation of Monarchy as a coup d'gtat, and call the cities to arms, and the new regime of legality would commence amidst a disastrous civil war, in which the Orleans House would either fall once more, or would be compelled to rely, as it has never relied, upon bayonets alone. We cannot believe that the MUM of Orleans, which has never been bloodthirsty, or its represents'. tive Prince, who, though callous in Algeria, has since then lived twenty years in Great Britain as an exile, would bring upon France so unendurable a calamity ; and believe therefore that even if called to the headship of the Republic, he will administer affairs as a Republican until the will of the people has been fairly ascertained. His own position as President will be far stronger than as Premier under his nephew, and it as a man of presumed capacity for government, not merely as Prince, that he is to be called to the helm. His party may be anxious mainly for monarchy, but France, if she agrees to try him, will test him not by his pedigree, but by his capacity to enfranchise and reorganize her. Although, therefore, his admission to the Assembly and his possible election to the Presidency may lead to the re-establishment of Monarchy at•. no distant date, we do not believe that the Republic is in either urgent or immediate danger of supersession.
The true significance of the incident seems to us to be this, —that another man of unknown qualities has at last attained a position whence he can reach the top, that the competitors for power in France, instead of being three, M. Thiers, M.Grgvy, and M. Gambetta, are now four. If M. d'Aumale is a strong man, that may be a gain for France, not because it may lead to monarchy, but because she needs a strong man; but this is the point upon which the pedagogues of the public teach them least. That the Duke d'Aumale is a fair officer, though tested only in Algeria, seems to be admitted by all Frenchmen. That he can write a scathing politi- cal pamphlet is admitted by the whole literary class in all countries. That he is a man of considerable intellectual power seems to be conceded by all admitted to the honour of his society. But of his qualifications for governing men, and more especially Frenchmen, of his ability to organize armies, of his capacity either to administer or to choose administrators, no evidence whatever has been offered to the world in general. He has had from the circumstances of his life no chance of offering any, for in early life he was a Prince, that is, a man whose acts can hardly be declared to be his own and not his coun- sellors', and in mature manhood he has been an exile earning, in a country very unlike France, a high reputation for virtues about which Frenchmen do not particularly care. Except to a few personal friends, he is as unknown a man as any member of the Assembly, as little or as much likely to guide France out of the slough of despond in which the Empire has left her, as little or as much likely to gain ascendancy over a people with whom his birth will be only a motive for suspicion. All that can be said of him is that another untried man seems to be rising fast to the top, and that in view of the failure of the only tried man available, M. Thiers, and in the dearth of great personalities in the country, that may be a hopeful event for France,
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