POLITICS
Your chance to sack large numbers of cabinet ministers
SIMON HEFFER
It has been difficult to open a newspaper lately without being bombarded with inducements to enter a fantasy cricket game. The idea is appealing. The contes- tant chooses 11 players from certain cate- gories — batsmen, bowlers, captains and so on — and then, throughout the season, is awarded points according to the numbers of runs scored and wickets taken by them in real life. The team that scores the highest number of points wins for its selector some lavish prize or other, usually an all-expens- es paid trip to an exotic place to watch Eng- land lose a test match.
Sensing that such emphasis on cricket might be unfair to the non-sporting classes, The Spectator has devised its own version of this game of, allegedly, skill. So here goes. You, too, can play Fantasy League Politics. The rules are straightforward. Using your vast knowledge of politics, you predict the names of the 22 people who will be in the Cabinet on 1 December 1994. There is no need for you to predict the exact portfolios held by individual ministers (unless you want to be particularly flash); all we want to know are the 22 players you feel will be in the team. We have chosen 1 December as the date because it would probably be the week after the deadline expires for a con- test for the Conservative Party leadership.
The competition will be won by the first entry out of the hat that has the right 22; or, if no one does, by the one with the most names right. There is, to make things more interesting, one exception to the rule that no portfolios need be named. You must specify who you think the prime minister will be, even if it is the current one. Even if the other 21 ministers are right, if you have chosen the wrong prime minister you can- not win. Entries must reach The Spectator at 56 Doughty Street, London WC1N 2LL no later than 9 p.m. on Thursday 5 May the moment the polls close in the local elections. In keeping with The Spectator's commitment to the classless society, the prize for the winner will be a case of Veuve Clicquot champagne, and there will be magnums of the same for the runners-up.
Most competitions like this contain a rule that bars those with inside knowledge from entering. Since, however, those on the inside are likely to be the last to know what is going on, that precaution is unnecessary. We particularly, for the purposes of our own entertainment, welcome entries from Tory MPs and Ministers of the Crown. Anonymity will, as usual, be respected. It is also traditional in these games for the newspaper's pundit to give hints to his readers about who is a safe bet and whom should not be touched with the proverbial bargepole. The most important point to make is that Mr Major enjoys such support as he does from certain members of his Cabinet because they know jolly well that, without him in charge, they are finished. So those playing Fantasy League Politics must bear in mind that, first, they need to be sure who their prime minister will be, and then work out which of his cronies are like- ly to be preferred.
It is possible there might be a brace of reshuffles before 1 December, which could complicate calculations. The expectation is that Mr Major will be forced into a shuffle after the elections of May and June. He will be told by the newspapers that he needs to be seen to act on the verdict• of the nation that he is not up to it. He is unlikely to act strictly on that verdict by resigning, though this cannot be ruled out. Instead, he would probably follow the traditional course of prime ministers when, through much fault of their own, they are up to their necks in do-dos, and sack selected colleagues.
Sir Norman Fowler, who is not in the Cabinet, has made no secret of the fact that he will be off to spend more time with his newspaper publishing company once the elections are over. His going need not pre- cipitate a reshuffle. The likely man to suc- ceed him, Mr Hunt, could easily combine his present non-job of Employment Secre- tary with running Central Office. However, for Mr Major to pass up such an opportuni- ty to reshape his team could be fatal for him, being construed, as it would be, as fur- ther inaction, indecision and drift.
A judgment must then be made about who will be fired. Mr Brooke, the Heritage Secretary, is an obvious candidate, his sur- vival in office being an immense shock to no one more than himself. Mr Newton and Mr Gummer look dead, but are close cronies of the Prime Minister, which seems to favour their survival. Mr Waldegrave is said to be high on Mr Major's death list for class reasons (Mr Waldegrave is not lacking in ability). However, to sack him soon would look embarrassingly like pre-empt- ing the Scott Inquiry, so he may survive. Lord Wakeham, the leader of the Lords, is widely regarded as finished, and there are doubts about Mr MacGregor, the Trans- port Secretary, though he is a crony of Mr Major's too. Much as most Tory MPs would like to see Mrs Bottomley sacked, the betting is that she will be made to stay in her job as Health Secretary and face the consequences of her expensive failure to cut NHS bureaucracy. Mr Major would be rash indeed to fire any of the so-called 'bas- tards', all of whom would make his life hell from the back benches. Mr Howard, whose career as Home Secretary has been so filled with horror that the video of it will never get a certificate, may well be seriously demoted, but probably not fired.
Those coming in to the Cabinet are, per- haps, easier to spot. Mr Major has taken great care, in changes he has already made, to maintain the 'balance' of the Cabinet (i.e. to have virtually no right-wingers), and to promote new talent (i.e. chaps who came in to the Commons years ago and were rightly overlooked, like Colonel Michael Mates, or wrongly overlooked, like Mr Jonathan Aitken). Were there five vacan- cies at the top,. four would go to what we might euphemistically term 'one nation' Tories and one to a right-winger, probably Mr Aitken. Mr Stephen Dorrell, the Walkerite Financial Secretary, is said to be a certainty for promotion; Dr Brian Mawhinney, who has been following Mrs Bottomley around with the bucket and shovel, is unpopular with civil servants, but apparently liked by the Prime Minister. Sir George Young, the dripping wet Housing Minister, is also felt to be in favour, as are two ministers from the Northern Ireland Office, the Earl of (`Mr Michael') Ancram, and Mr Jeremy Hanley. If Lord Wakeham goes, a new Leader of the Lords will be needed, and Lord Howe is said to be inter- ested.
Even if one could tell what might happen in June or July, calculations may be thrown out altogether by a leadership contest later in the year. Who would be in the Heseltine or Clarke cabinets? Or will Mr Major sur- vive? The beauty, as they say, of Fantasy League Politics is that anything can hap- pen; and it probably will.
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