THE TURKISH HOULLISTS.
Tau exaltations in ' which our pro-Turkish papers indulged 1 in the early part of the week on the so-called successes of the Turks,—suocesses consisting wholly in the successful defence of Plevna against assault, and in reducing the opera. tione there to those of a regular siege, no doubt a result not to be underrated, but one the value of which was reduced by attacks which cost in all probability a still greater expense of life than that which they inflicted on the Russians,—the Times correspondent stating that a sixth part of Osman Pasha's army were put hors de combat before the Gravitza, redoubt alone,—have been somewhat premature. It is unwise to holloa till you are out of the wood, and we should think that shrieks of exultation of the kind which we have heard this week, and the invectives against the awful wickedness of the Czar in inflicting all this suffering for no purpose, had better have been deferred at least till the Russians had been driven across the Danube. The Russians, no doubt, have made great mistakes. They have been badly generalled, and have under-rated the splendid military qualities of their foe. But there is little cause for exultation, we should have thought, to the friends of Turkey in the prospect of the Russian troops wintering in Bulgaria and a renewed campaign next year, which is what the present situation seems to portend. What would such journalists have written during the Crimean war, after the perilous crises of Balaklava and Laker- mann ? Would they not, had they happened to have been on the Russian side, have danced their dance of triumph over ld, ercothe position of our troops, decimated by ehaorleroal,fistarved h ill-fed by the most disorganised of
numbers of the s W swept into the sea by the Russian armies ? Or if they had been on the English side, must they not have written in tones of the most abject despair ? What would they have written, again, at the worst crisis of the American Civil War before Vicksburg
fell in 1863 1 Would they not have treated the North to homilies demonstrating that it is very wicked to let your faith in God's providence have any influence at all on your expectations with regard to the course of
history i ? Such an article as that n an evening contemporary
last Tuesday on the "Hand of Providence,"—the real drift of which is to demonstrate the handlessness of Providence,—seems to us about as silly a piece of writing as even a prophecy,—and, if such prophecies there really have been, they have escaped our notice,—that Russia must immediately crush Turkey, in spite of blunders both arrogant and ignorant in the organisation of her armies, because Providence is on her side. But as violent and silly homilies are written to prove that the Czar has not only blundered, but committed the most unpardonable of sins in commencing a war for which he was not properly prepared, and that no one has the slightest right to feel any confidence in its ultimate issue founded in any way on religious faith, let us just point out calmly why we feel regret, indeed, but no indignation at the Russian Emperor's mistake, and not
the slightest dismay at what has happened, but rather as much confidence as ever that the eventual issue will be the decline and fall of the Ottoman Power.
As to the first point little needs saying. If Lord Palmer- ston was the wickedest of men for plunging us into a war for which we were so little prepared. in 1854,—if Abraham Lincoln was the wickedest of men for plunging the North into a war for which it was so little prepared in 1861, then the Czar is the wickedest of men for what he has done this year ; and if not, not. On the second point we have more to say. To begin with, we may fairly admit that we over-cal- culated the immediate strength of Russia, and under-calculated the temporary strength of Turkey, though we never expressed anything like confidence as to the shortness of the struggle. We have always said, as we said. at the outset on the declara- tion of war, that "so far as we can judge, the substantial and permanent causes of military success are in this campaign with the Russians, and not with their opponents,"—and to that we hold absolutely still. We have at times no doubt, like the rest of the world, misinterpreted early successes into a nearer victory than now seems at all likely. But we see no reason in the world for changing the deep:rooted conviction we have always held, that all the causes which promote the dissolution of empires are more actively at work than ever to promote the dissolution of the worst Empire that the world has ever seen.
No doubt a great many of the journals which are now crow- ing so loudly over the failure of the Russians, were equally ill-employed in crowing as loudly over the failure of the Federals, some fourteen years ago. We then held that what- ever the means used by Providence might be,—whether it were the complete conquest of the South, of which for a month or two even we began almost to despair, or the close competition of a free North with a strictly limited slave-South, —the issue could not be doubtful, and that that issue must be the destruction of slavery, and of all political power resting on slavery, within no very great length of time. The result came sooner than, in 1863, we had ventured to hope, and came with a grander and more dramatic downfall of the evil power based on slavery than any rational man would then have ventured to predict. And it certainly did. not tend to diminish our faith in the real direction of Providence over human history, that the issue was as complete and as speedy as it was.
Well, precisely what we said in 1863 of the result of the mighty conflict then waging in the United States, we say now of the re- sult of the great conflict waging in the Turkish provinces. It may be,—we believe not, and we hope not,—but it may be, that in the first instance the Turks will win, and that the results of their victory will be so appalling to the world at large, that Europe will be compelled to do then what she ought to have done a year ago,—interfere between the Turkish Government and its miserable subjects. Yet with Turkey flushed with victory, that would imply a great European war to effect what might have been effected without any war, had Russia been properly supported at the time of the Conference. It is far more likely that the• result will come about in some other way ; for example, that this conflict may evolve a great Russian General, who will use the immense resources of Russia, and not squander them as they have been squandered lately. Again, a perhaps more probable result still is that Germany and Austria, seeing the frightful consequences of a Turkish victory, may draw closer their alliance with Russia, and them- selves contribute to that gradual reediatising of the Porte which is the first condition of European peace. But come how it will, we have no more doubt that the issue will be the same, than we had that the issue of the Confederate rebellion would be the extinction of slavery in the United States. The ways of Pro- vidence are seldom our ways. Still, now and then we do catch a clear glimpse of the ends of Providence, and when we do, there is no surer clue by which to unravel the tangle of political conflict. Even Mr. Emerson, who is not a very orthodox divine, indicated his confidence in this capacity of the human mind to discern now and then the purposes of a higher Power, when he concluded one of his anti-slavery addresses with these words, "The sentiment of right, once very low and indistinct, but ever more articulate, inasmuch as it is the voice of the universe, pro- nounces 'Freedom.' The Power that built this fabric of things confirms it in the heart, and in the history of the 1st of August made a sign to the ages of His will." What Emerson said of slavery, that, and no more than that, we say of the rule of the semi-bandit Power, miscalled a Government, which goes by the name of the Ottoman Porte. We say that all the signs of the times are against it,—that nothing would precipitate its down- fall more surely, though unfortunately too slowly for the ilium- diate good of Europe, than its temporary victory. The Russian Government may be a barbarous Government, as compared with the Governments of Western Europe, but it is a progressive, a humane, and a civilised Government, as compared with that of Turkey. All the forces of civilised life must in the end fight for it, and the Czar of Russia cannot abandon at such a stage as this a quarrel to which his Government is so deeply pledged. Read the papers which speak most dismally of the immediate prospects of the Russian arms, and see what they really tell you as to the ultimate issue of the struggle. Take, for example, the Tinier' correspondent's letter of Wed- nesday from Therapia. He tries to explain how it is that the Turks carry on the war so well, and he explains it thus :—First, all the official salaries have been reduced one-half ; the forced loan has not been generally extorted, because the people were too poor to pay it ; but the army lives on the country it occupies. Then he goes on thus :—" The anxious question then crops up, what will happen next year, when short crops having come in, no taxes can be expected ? Large arrears will have to be met. No imports from abroad will have come forward, and all credit, public and private, will have been exhausted abroad. The condition of the working and the lower classes even in the capital is becoming the sub- ject of great anxiety, while in the provinces the want and priva- tion are such as no other people would patiently endure. When winter comes upon them, it is feared there will be much misery and suffering, and it is fearful to contemplate what may be the results, when the country shall have been utterly drained
of all resources. Food, fuel, and clothing will all be wanting, and the usual means of supply will not be consider- able, all trade having been stopped through the war." Now, not even the most unscrupulous of the pro-Turkish advocates will venture to say that the main elements of collapse here, are due to the Russian invasion. It was the plundering character of the Turkish Government which led to Turkish bankruptcy, and it is the Turkish bankruptcy which leads to this awful prospect, even on the hypothesis of Turkish victory. It is the radical sins of that plundering Government which are now coming home to it in retribution, engaged, as it is, in a deadly struggle. Russia, poor and hard-pressed as she is, can afford to wait. Turkey must perish, even through success, because her rule has never been a Government at all, but simply the violence of a camp of freebooters, Who shall say that in these signs there is not the hand of Providence visiting at last with ruin the Government of a race which has never had but one great quality,—the quality of courage,—and which has turned that into the instrument of brutal and bloodthirsty oppression ?
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