THE NEXT POPE.
IT argues no more than a justifiable scepticism to say that we shall not believe that the Pope is dead until he is buried. The persistency with which telegram-mongers manufacture reports of his failing health is only equalled by the fury which these rumours inspire in his spiritual subjects. It would almost seem that Roman Catholics half believe that Pius IX. is immortal, and are indignant with any one who even hints that their faith may be a delusion. It is less wonderful, per- haps, that the news should so often be invented, than that it should be so fiercely contradicted. There is no question that the potential importance of the Pope's death will be immense, and it is not surprising that, in a capital where there is so little to write about as Rome, the imagination of correspondents in want of a subject should be irresistibly drawn towards i an event which, whenever t happens, will for the time make Rome the centre of universal attention. But beyond the sense of bereavement which the death of a venerable and beloved leader must always excite in devoted followers, there is no reason why Roman Catholics should look forward to this event with special anxiety. If Pius IX. wore a Pope who had gone to the furthest point in the way of concession to the powers that be, alarm might naturally be felt at the possibility of the adoption by his successor of a policy of heroic resistance. Even theologians who have grown accustomed to peace may dislike the thought of exchanging it for perpetual conflict. But when it is the dying Pope that has been preaching a crusade against the temporal authorities, the prospect of a vacancy in the Papal throne offers nothing but a possible return to a pleasanter state of things. If there be any change at the Vatican after the death of Pius IX., it will be a change in the direction of peace. If there be no move in that direction, the Papal policy will remain what it is now. There is nothing in these alternatives to excite Catholic feeling Bo keenly. In either case, the position of the Church will be no worse than it is already. . It will be unfortunate if the Conservatism of the Sacred College should defeat all calculations, and give the Church a head of precisely the same tendencies as Pius IX. The reign of the Pope has been so prolonged, and his government of the Church has been so marked by his personal characteristics, that it is difficult to keep in mind the fact that what has been the policy of Rome for nearly thirty years need not be always her policy. It is a long time since she has stooped to conquer, but the movement is one with which she was once fanailiar, and by means of which she has gained some of her most signal victories. There is much in the present aspect of Europe which might tempt an enterprising Pontiff to renew the experiment. At all events, there is very little to be done in any other way. The educated classes in Europe are, for the time, hopelessly alienated from Catholicism. Even where religion is fashion- able, as it is for the moment in France, it is rather as the symbol of political and social reaction than as a supernatural system that it is valued. The civil authorities in Catholic countries are either hostile, as in Italy and Germany, or in- different, as in Austria. If Belgium is alleged as an exception, the answer is that it is an exception by reason that in Belgium the Church has become democratic, has appealed to the masses, has condescended, in fact, to the methods which she habitually uses in Protestant countries. It is true that her change of policy has not at all lessened the detestation in which she is held by those who do not conform to her laws. But the reason of this may be that though the means which she employs in Belgium are democratic, the ends for which she employs them are reactionary. She accepts the Constitution for eccle- siastical purposes, but she does not accept it frankly or with- out reserve, On the contrary, if she were really omnipotent in Belgium, she would at once destroy the liberties which have given her her present strength in the country. But supposing that a new Pope were to reject all thought of making terms with hostile Governments, and were to devote himself instead to winning back the masses to the Church, we are not at all sure that he might not succeed. Ile would have, of course, to exercise very great patience. The new spiritual fabric of Rome, like the first material fabric, would not be built in a day. But there is no reason to believe that if he honestly set him- self to the work, and brought to boar on it the unrivalled organisation and discipline of the Roman Catholic Church, he would not end by very largely modifying the estimation in which the Church is hold'among the classes which live by labour. Ile would in Continental countries have the advantage, to start with, of having for an enemy the powers to which these classes are usually opposed. There is a great deal of ]e- publican feeling in Italy, and a great deal of Socialist feeling in Germany. The alliance of the Church with Monarchies is only accidental, and if we suppose the Ultramontane clergy to colour the teaching of Christ on social questions as freely as they have coloured his teaching on some other matters, Christianity might easily be made to wear a highly Communistic aspect. It would be essential to the realisation of this vision that it should be pursued with perfect good-faith, and from a genuine belief that in seeking to win back the democracy to the fold the Church was pursuing her true mission. If, instead of this, the new Pope were merely playing a part, if he were aiming at spiritual power, not for it own sake, but for the sake of the help it might give him in regaining his temporal power—he would certainly be seen through and despised. But when once those to whom he addressed himself were convinced of his sincerity, lie might expect to make way .fast. The poor have few or none of the intellectual difficulties which trouble the educated classes. Their alienation from the Church is almost
exclusively social and political. They dislike her not because she is a Church, but because she is a rich and aristocratic Church,
because she is leagued with those whom they have too often come to regard as their natural enemies, Destroy this alliance, and the Roman Catholic Church would have a clear field before it.
It is this which constitutes the perennial interest of the Conclave that cannot be far off. We do not for a moment suppose that the Cardinals have any such thought
as this in their heads. If any of them are secretly minded to change the policy with which the present Pope has
So long been associated, they probably contemplate nothing
more revolutionary than a move towards a reconciliation with either Germany or Italy, and a restoration of the status quo ante bellunt. But when once elected, the now Pope may possibly look beyond the limited horizon of the Sacred College, and consider whether a complete revolution in ecclesi-
astical policy might not be easier of accomplishment and more
fruitful in results than the partial changes contemplated by the Cardinals. For a resolute man, determined to have his own way, and having a clear appreciation of the means by 'which he may hope to get his own way, there is no posi- tion comparable to that of a Pope. Two things, however, must come together in order to place such a man on the throne of Peter. The Sacred College must elect him, and he must be there for the Sacred College to elect. The best, if not the only, chance that the former con- dition may be realised is that the choice should fall on a young man. That it would fall on a foreigner would, of course, be an additional chance, but this seems too unlikely to be worth discussion, The times are of such unexampled difficulty, that we can scarcely imagine an old man caring to have the burden of contending with them thrown on his shoulders. Consequently the majority of votes in the Conclave may be given, to some unknown man, who has his ecclesiastical spurs to win. In that case, his first thoughts will probably turn to some com- promise, by which a part at least of the old powers of the Church may be regained. But if he has that combination of intellectual acumen and intellectual energy which is needed to make a great Pope, he will soon see that he has set himself a hopeless task, The Roman Catholic Church has no future in connection with the State, because the political philosophy fashionable on the Continent aims at making the State supreme in the sphere of religion and morals, as well as in that of politics. But she may have a very great future apart from the State, and the policy of a Pope who had grasped this contrast would be to unravel as fast as possible all the remaining ties which bind the State to the Church. The chances are that the Sacred College will not be found to contain a man equal to so great an oppor- tunity, and that the policy of Pius IX. will be pursued, with such small changes as may be natural to the age or character of his successor. But however small may be the probability of the next Pope rising to tho height of the occasion, it is per missible to dream of a more momentous issue from the next Conclave than one which should end in keeping ecclesiastical matters just, where they are.
Previous page
