THE STRENGTH OF BULGARIA. T HE Sultan has stepped in to
relieve Bulgaria, in some degree, from the irritating and menacing pressure exerted by the unexplained armament of Servia. It seems that M. Stambouloff recently said to Reshid Bey, the Ottoman Commissioner at Sofia, that a continuance of this warlike display would compel Bulgaria to mobilise her army, a speech which, reported to the Porte, brought a prompt request to abstain from so decided a measure, coupled with a declaration that the Sultan would regard an attack on Bulgaria as an attack on the Ottoman Empire. "From any quarter ? From Russia even ?" asked the Bulgarian Premier. And the answer, authorised by the Turkish Government, was "Yes." It adds considerably to the weight of this " conversation " that it has been revealed by M. Stambouloff, who must have had some sort of permission to tell the news to the world. He has other and perhaps surer friends than the Porte—for example, oertain parties to the Treaty of Berlin—and it is not likely that he would have been so communicative unless they, as -well as the Porte, thought it expedient that the fact should be known. Nor is it probable that the Sultan would have taken a step so decided unless he had the assent 4f powerful backers. Bulgaria is, by treaty, part of the Ottoman Empire, but has hung on to that body by parchment links ; for when M. Stoianoff, who has just expired, Dr. Stransky, and their friends revolutionised Eastern Roumelia, the Sultan looked on, nor did he move even when Milan fought Alexander, nor when the Russians kidnapped the Prince, nor when Kaulbars tried to play the Pro-Consul. Something grave must have happened behind the scenes to draw the Sultan out from his policy of non- committal, and induce him to authorise such a declaration as that made in Sofia. And something has happened. It is indicated by the language of the Austrian Emperor and Lord Salisbury respecting the progress of Bulgaria, by the Note on Cretan affairs, and not less by what the Russians ball the "correct attitude" of the Triple Alliance towards Armenia. Even the French admit that "independent Bulgaria" has now no enemies except the enemies of England, which is an odd way of stating that the only foes of Bulgaria are Russia and her friends. M. Stambouloff, we are told, is about to assume the post of Foreign Minister, another sure sign that foreign relations are in a state re- quiring the direct control of the head of the Government. A month ago he indirectly prayed the Powers friendly to Bulgaria to include her "among the regular States," and to recognise Prince Ferdinand. He has now got an answer which goes some way towards the fulfilment of his prayer.
For the Ottoman declaration at Sofia marks the change which has taken place in the condition of this complicated Eastern question. It shows that there are large elements of strength behind little Bulgaria, and that the line of the Danube and the line of the Balkans are neither to be had for the asking. The onus of breaking in upon the situa- tion is thrown upon the Power which is the most hostile, not merely to a possible Danubian Confederacy, which is in the clouds, but to the free or relatively free States. If Servia has been secured, and Roumania is wavering, which is doubtful, Bulgaria is intact, and she stands on every inch of the ground commanding the land routes to the Bosphorus. Made strong in herself by river and mountain, she now has the assurance that behind her is Turkey, and behind Turkey those friendly Powers to whom M. Stambouloff made his dignified and pathetic appeal last August. Nor is the support of Turkey despicable. Able German officers have been many years engaged in working up the Ottoman Army, and we believe their steady toil has borne fruit. The soldiers have taken to the drill and discipline, and have imbibed somewhat of the spirit of their instructors, so that, always fine soldiers, the Turkish levies are now far more efficient than they were. It is easy to conceive how a friendly Bulgaria would make the combined army a nut more difficult to crack, especially in a country which has often tasked Russian armies, though aided by a Bulgaria which favoured them. The Sultan, doubtless, sees how much he is interested in upholding a State which, practically in- dependent as it is, forms a stiff barrier athwart the roads to Adrianople and Gallipoli, which holds the Black Sea ports, such as they are, and is, moreover, full of sub- sistence. What we conceive to be the nature of the change is that the stress of events—notably Russia's successful moves in Servia, and her obvious but not yet successful intrigues in Roumania—has brought the Triple Alliance plus Turkey, not as an ally, but as an auxiliary, into line behind the Danube, for it must have been with their con- sent, in some shape, that the Sultan potentially interposed his army between Bulgaria and any enemy whatsover. The bearing, wide and deep, of that change, not only on the Eastern, but the great European question, can be imagined by all who study the shifting as well as the per- manent aspects of these tremendous problems.
The new move may be regarded as a further attempt to maintain the peace by plainly notifying the existence of a fresh obstacle in the path which Russia sedulously pursues. She has deliberately prevented the proper organisation of Bulgaria, and all understand the reason why. She troubles the quiet of Roumania, and has planted what is equivalent to a garrison in Servia. M. Stambouloff asks through his semi-official newspaper if Europe is "afraid of a certain barbarous diplomacy," meaning that which infests the valley of the Danube, and receives encouragement from acts like the decoration of Grueff. There are no signs anywhere that Russia has relinquished the offensive,—on the contrary; and the open rallying of the Porte to the isolated State ruled by Prince Ferdinand implies that the intrigues of the enemy of both have gone lengths beyond what appears on the surface. Hence the political necessity of establishing and making known an identity of interest in the preservation of Bulgaria. We do not in the least wish to overrate the power of the Sultan, but we cannot be blind to the considerable significance of the large force he can put in the field to aid the Bulgars if they are assailed, still less to the greater significance of a momentous declara- tion which so plainly implies that he has great influences and forces, moral and physical, behind him, which would not have approved the step were not the peril even graver than it seems. Hence, if it is regarded as a proceeding designed to avert a war, it must also be ranked among the measures which come within the limits of preparation for a war. And that is its greatest value as a symptom, for, practically, it brings the Porte into line with the other Powers who have banded themselves together to resist attacks from those who have not what they so fervently desire. In either case, the declaration adds much to the strength of Bulgaria, now one of the most respectable States of the East.
During her brief, almost separate existence, she has done well. Her plodding, saving, industrious people have shown some political sagacity, have made sacrifices when called on, and have justified the boast of the Svoboda that their prudence has preserved Eastern Europe from what are styled "complications,"—meaning, we suppose, possible and probable causes of war. That reticent conduct, backed up by their proved readiness to defend themselves, and their steady attention to every-day business, will surely go to augment such strength as may lie in them. And in their hills it ought to tell as it has told before. Now they have to contend with various dangers. In Servian armaments and Servian diplomacy, if it deserve the name, they rightly discern the hand of their avowed enemy, who threatens them with brandished arms from Belgrade, and by secret plots from the left bank of the Danube, while he uses the very stream itself, under the pretence of commercial ventures, to prepare the way for the passage of armies. The future is black and im- penetrable; sinister warnings from all quarters fill the air ; and not the least impressive sign of the times is the fact that the courage of the Sultan has been screwed up to the point of pledging himself to defend Bulgaria in case of need,—a fact which plainly shows that she has many friends stronger than the ruler in Stamboul.
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