TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE DISSOLUTION CONJECTURES.
MR. BALFOUR'S answer on Tuesday as to the vote to be taken on account before Whitsuntide, is supposed to indicate a great deal more than it does indi- cate. Indeed, nothing is less likely than that the Govern- ment have as yet made up their minds as to the date of Dissolution. Why should they ? The Small Holdings Bill has still to be reported to the House, and will certainly have one more night's debate at least, before it is read a third time and passed. There are several other Bills of some practical importance, though no political significance, to be passed ; and it is still uncertain what the precise attitude of the Gladstonians and the Irish Party will be towards the Irish Local Government Bill, though, of course, it will be hostile. We are told that the Irish Party have no intention of prolonging unduly the debate on the second reading, and it is quite conceivable that neither they nor their Liberal allies will think obstruction their wisest policy, inasmuch as obstruction would probably hasten the Dissolution, and might well give the Govern- ment a good cry on which to dissolve. Now, it is not at all certain that either the Irish Party or the Gladstonians are anxious to precipitate a dissolution. The political tendency of the moment is not unfavourable to the Govern- ment; and it is barely possible that Irish politicians may see an advantage to be gained by the carrying of the Irish Local Government Bill, if it is carried against their protests, and can be treated as a gift-horse whose mouth it is not only perfectly legitimate, but even incumbent on them, to examine very narrowly. The Government, on the other hand, would probably be very glad to pass the Bill, if it can be passed without too much expenditure of time, both as completing their programme and also as being honestly desired by their Ulster allies. Now, as these aspects of the political problem are still quite unsettled, what possible reason can there be for announcing pre- cipitately intentions which ought as yet to be unformed, and which in all probability are unformed ? It is childish to infer that because the vote on account asked for before Whitsuntide, will probably be for "a month or six weeks," no further vote on account will be asked for after Whitsuntide for a longer period. Mr. Balfour in all probability has not made up his own mind what he will do. If he has made up his mind, he would certainly not make Mr. Labouchere his confidant ; so that it seems to us idle to attach any political significance to his reply on Tuesday night. It would be as wise for a General to send notice to the enemy of an intended attack, as for Mr. Balfour to give Mr. Labouchere quite unnecessary information as to the date at which he must be ready to open his guns on the Administration. We shall have means before Whitsuntide of judging the situation better. We shall know then whether or not the Irish Local Govern- ment Bill could be passed without prolonging the Session to a preposterous length. We shall know whether the distaste for it in the Conservative ranks is as vehement as ever. We shall know, perhaps, whether the passing of the Small Holdings Bill has sensibly altered the attitude of the rural constituencies. We shall know, in short, whether, in the opinion of sensible men, with all the attainable data for judging before them, the present is a good opportunity for dissolving Parliament. If it is, we may be quite sure that the shortness of the period for which the first vote on account will be taken, will not prevent the Government from asking for another vote on account. If it is not, then we may be pretty sure that the Government will not commit the mistake of dissolving, if it could be plausibly urged that had they been really in earnest, they could have carried the measure by which their Irish pfogramme would have been completed without obstruction and with- out cruelty to the House of Commons. It is true, of course, that the mere approach of the Dissolution has dis- organised the House of Commons so much, that no one will be sorry to see its last agonies cut short. Punch's picture of the spectre of Dissolution brooding over the House, which Mr. Gladstone springs to meet with out- stretched arms, while shivering Members vainly ask them- selves whether they will survive its blighting spell, is not at all an exaggerated comment on the situation. Retiring Members throw off all sense of responsibility to their con- stituents, and Members who seek re-election become un- manageable in all those matters in which they suspect that their constituents and their party-leaders disagree. But though these considerations will have their weight so soon as there is no valid reason for postponing the General Election further, they will not alter the determination of the Government to make the Session as fruitful as they can in practical and popular legislation. They would be very foolish if they did not. They would be very foolish if they were so impatient to put an end to suspense, as to hurry a popular judgment not yet ripe for decision. Nevertheless, as far as we can see at present, the pro- babilities incline towards an early dissolution, a dissolution before harvest rather than after it. The issue must really turn on the disposition shown towards the Irish Local Government Bill ; and we do not entertain very much doubt that, what with the disinclination of the Conserva- tives to so premature a measure, and the no doubt partly simulated but also partly real disgust of the Anti-Parnellites, there can be but very little excuse for demanding so preter- natural an exercise of Parliamentary patience as would be necessary to get all the clauses through Committee in an exhausted and irritable House of Commons. If the debate on the second reading proves, as we expect it to prove, that Ulster, and Ulster only, favours the passing of the Bill, that the Gladstonians would be far too impatient and too angry to restrain their showers of stones, and the Irish Party both too independent of their poverty-stricken leaders and too anxious to be at each others' throats, to obey any word of command, the Government will hardly prolong a scene which cannot redound to the credit of the Administration while it lasts, and cannot hold out much prospect of terminating in their victory. To push a Bill generally unpopular with the representatives themselves, through the dreary and minute discussions of Committee, is a hard task even with a fresh Parliament and a, positive democratic mandate behind it. But to push such a Bill through a fagged and anxious House, very uncertain whether the people themselves will endorse their work, is something very near an impossibility. And the moment the Government see that it is an impossibility, they will not, we should think, delay another moment in hurrying on the Dissolution. They will, then, wish to dissolve with the prestige of a popular Small Holdings Act fresh upon them, and not to wear out their followers and allies with needless hagglings in a worn-out assembly. Besides, it is never well to give the impression that they shrink from the verdict of the country. And that will be the impression if, after carrying the second reading of the Irish. Local Government Bill against a hostile minority, they prolong a useless and hopeless wrangle with a kind of obstruction that must triumph in the end. When the main-spring is broken, the watch runs down. And the main-spring of this Parliament will be broken as soon as the second reading of the Irish Local Government Bill has been carried by hesitating supporters, and the Small Holdings Act has received the Royal assent. The majority will then have fulfilled their pledges, so far as the people can judge ; for to exhaust the petty controversies of the Committee stage of such a measure as the Irish Local Government Bill under the un- favourable conditions of languid support and malignant opposition, is not a sort of duty which the electors of this country would be likely to regard as the bounden obligation even of an overwhelming majority with the country at their back, and still less when there is so very much doubt whether, indeed, it will prove that the country is at their back. What, on the whole, is to be looked for, is an acceleration of the crisis, and no further retardations. Parliament will no doubt meet after Whit- suntide, but meet only to arrange measures for the pitched battle, and by the middle of July we shall expect to see the struggle beginning, if not at its height. Politicians on all sides will be muttering to themselves : If 'twere done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly.' But all parties and factions will probably share the grave doubt as to whether it will be done when 'tis done, or not.
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