PRINCE FERDINAND'S POLICY.
WHAT is Prince Ferdinand's policy ? Why has he stooped to kiss the hand of the Sultan, and so proclaimed to all Europe that he is not a free and in- dependent Sovereign, but merely a vassal Prince,—the. feudatory of Turkey, the liegeman of the Ottoman Emperor ? That Prince Ferdinand has not done this out of an innocent belief in the Sultan's virtues as a ruler is clear enough. Again, he is not likely to be afraid of the Sultan, for he must know that Abd-ul-Hamid would not be allowed by Europe to interfere either with Bulgaria or• Eastern Roumelia. The act, whatever the motive, was- purely voluntary. But Prince Ferdinand, who is half a . Coburg and half a. Bourbon, is not the kind of person to do voluntary homage to any one without very good and sufficient reasons. He probably in his heart considers himself the Sultan's equal, if not indeed greatly his- superior, in birth,—for the Sovereign caste of Europe must regard the family system of the house of Othman as very little consistent with their notions as to purity of blood. Depend upon it, Prince Ferdinand did not fling- himself in front of the Sultan's throne and kiss the hand. of the crafty, nervous, trembling organiser of massacre- without some very strong impelling cause. What was that cause, all the European diplomatists are now earnestly inquiring,—for the matter has been specially brought home to their minds by a characteristic act on the part of the Sultan. The Sultan has given Dr. Stoilolf, the Bulgarian Premier, the Star of the Order of Glory,—a decoration far higher than that ever bestowed before on a Christian politician. The incident has caused the whole diplomatic corps to address a. remonstrance to the Porte, and to declare that henceforth they will not accept the Medjidieh Order which has, as a rule, been accorded to them. The incident may cause a smile, but it shows how very far things have gone in the direction of an understanding between Turkey and Bulgaria. Orientals understand the finesse of insult to perfection, and seldom do a rude thing without meaning it. The giving of the Order of Glory to Dr. Stolloff immediately after his refusal to retract his remarks about Austria is a sign that the Sultan is delighted with the acknowledgment of his overlordship- made by the Bulgarian Prince.
The only attempt at an explanation of the reasons which induced Prince Ferdinand to kiss the Sultan's hand is to be found in a statement made by Dr. Stoiloff to " Hungarian noble." Referring to the Prince's visit to Constantinople, Dr. Stoiloff declared. that the Prince was a born d;plomatist. He had come to the conclusion that he could retain his throne only by adopting the ways of an Oriental Monarch :—" The Prince is accused of seeking support, not from his people, but among foreign Powers, and. thereby betraying his country. The Bulgarian Govern- ment has also been charged with selling the interests of the country to one Emperor or the other. The Prince's experience has convinced him that he can make his throne secure only by identifying himself with the people. He had at first placed his hopes on the Vienna Government ; later he inclined towards 'Russia ; but in neither direction was there any idea of gratifying Bulgaria's aspiration." But these aspirations had to be satisfied if a revolution%s to be averted. Nothing was to be expected from Europe. The only way was to utilise the advantages arising out_of Bulgaria's vassalage to Turkey. It was this policy which brought the Prince to Constantinople, where he had borne himself as a vassal throughout. By these means he won for himself the favour of Turkish. public opigion,_ and obtained from the Sultan a promise to fulfil the desires of Bulgaria with regard to Macedonia 6 "In case of a conflict with Servia, and Roumania, Prince Ferdinand would be victorious, as a faithful vassal of the Sultan. Turkeyhas a large and excellent Army, to which, in case- of war, Bulgaria could add a hundred thousand heroes._ As far as Europe is concerned, the policy of lumiliktion has ceased. Prince Ferdinand prefers to Ailis the Sulthn's hand to bowing before European Misters." Such is the frank declaration of the Bulgarian Premier. But though the statement explains what Prince Ferdinand has done, and indicates the nature of his new policy--the policy of standing by the East rather than lay the West—it does not really throw any light upon the ultimate causes which have produced the change. To say that Bulgaria has been snubbed by Austria and Russia is not sufficient.. That is nothing new for Bulgaria, and, depend upon it,. the Prince would not have made his latest move with-- out some betters. or at any rate stronger, reason. We pretend to no special or private information on the subject, but nevertheless we think- the true motives of Prince F,r3inand may be understood by an examination of the general situation. His action is, we believe, the direct result of the secret agreement as to the future of Turkey in Europe which was arrived at this summer between Austria and Russia. Austria and Russia, it is now generally admitted, have come to an understanding as to the situation in the Balkans. They have not agreed to partition Turkey offhand, or to take any immediate steps of any kind. What they have decided, however, is, that if for any reason the status quo in the Turkish dominions should come to an end, there shall be no scramble, but that each shall be allotted a particular sphere of action. Russia is to be allowed a free hand in Roumelia and on the Bosphorus, and Austria is to deal at discretion with Salonica and Macedonia. But this, in effect, means the partition of Turkey in Europe between the two great rivals. There is nothing left for any one else, —unless Austria perchance should toss a scrap to Servia, and another to Greece, and to please Italy and the Czar, should possibly behave handsomely to little Monte- negro in the matter of a few mountain villages. Bulgaria, it is clear, under this arrangement could and would get nothing whatever. When, then, Prince Ferdinand heard of this arrangement, which he did some three months ago, he had to take one of two courses. Either he had to abandon his and every living Bulgarian's dream of an increased principality—that is, of the addition of part of Macedonia, .and possibly of a part of Roumelia, and the conversion of Bulgaria into a kingdom with a doubled area—or else he had to take what means he could to prevent the carrying out of an arrangement which would close the door for ever to the aggrandisement of his State. Naturally enough he determined to accept the latter alternative, and refused to acquiesce quietly in a plan which could do nothing for Bulgaria. His prime object, therefore, became the countermining of the Russo-Austrian agreement. It might seem a difficult, or if you will, an impossible, task, but at any rate it offered a chance, while acquiescence in the will of the two Emperors offered nothing whatever.
But the only way of countermining Russia and Austria was to put off as long as possible the dissolution of Turkey. As long as Turkey continues in its present position and the status quo is maintained there is always a chance left open for Bulgaria. Agreements change with years, and, at any rate until the division is accomplished, there is always hope. Prince Ferdinand saw, therefore, his best and only hope in supporting Turkey,—by the aid, if necessary, of what Dr. Stoiloff calls his hundred thousand "heroes." Accordingly, Prince Ferdinand—apparently with the assent of the Bulgarian leaders—has thrown himself into the arms of the Sultan, and has virtually made an affiance with the old enemy of the principality. It is a strange and sinister arrangement, but doubtless one which from the point of view of statecraft has much to recommend it. Undoubtedly the Turkish and Bulgarian Armies united would give an antagonist a good deal of trouble. Alt any rate, for the moment it puts heart into the Sultan and makes him feel that he is not so isolated as before. If Bulgaria can be won over, why not even Servia and Roumania also ? We do not suppose, however, that Prince Ferdinand at heart thinks it will ever come to his fighting for the Sultan. He hopes, of course, to manage better than that. An alliance with the Sultan makes Bulgaria worth bribing, which she was not when she stood alone. Should it ever come to the threat of war, and should Russia and Austria ever change their present policy and agree to precipitate the disso- lution of Turkey, Bulgaria, if in alliance with the Sultan, would have to be bought off. By taking his stand by the side of Turkey, Prince Ferdinand has assumed a position out of which it may some day be worth the while of Austria and Russia to bribe him. Not now when they are angry and contemptuous, but later on, they may argue that it will be better to find some compensation for Bulgaria than to complicate matters by allowing the principality to give active aid to Turkey. In other words, by its virtual alliance with the Sultan, Bulgaria has made itself something more than a neglectable quantity. This, no doubt, seems something well worth achieving to Prince Ferdinand and to the cunning and not over- scrupulous politicians who are trying to aggrandise their country at all costs. But though Prince Ferdinand's last move is a very clever one, we doubt whether it will in the end do him much good. Fate seems always against such unnatural coalitions as that between Turkey and the State she so lately pillaged and oppressed. The coalition between Fox and North seemed practical and secure enough on paper, but events showed that it was intolerable, and could not be sustained. That, we expect, will be the end of the coalition between Prince Ferdinand and Abd-ul-Hamid. The two men are too clever, and too cunning, and too anxious about their own objects, to support each other for long. Austria and Russia may well be content to smile at the new manceuvre, confident that nothing can come of the alliance between Turkey and the Power whose main aim is after all to get hold of half Turkey's best European provinces. The dying camel cannot well make an alliance with one of the vultures that is longing to attack the carcass. We need not, then, expect very much to come of the Bulgarian movement towards Turkey. It is a clever piece of political chess-playing,—nothing more. The great movements of the world—such as the collapse of Turkey —are not stopped by diplomatic finesse.
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