TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE POLITICAL STRUGGLE. THERE is a certain unity of expression visible among the organs of Radical opinion which suggests that their chiefs see grounds of hope in the coming autumn Session. Their leading idea appears to be that Mr. Balfour may be either beaten on the Education Bill, or so nearly beaten that his Government will lose heart, and either withdraw the Bill or consent to a Dissolution, which they think would end in a Radical victory. They believe that the political Nonconformists, who are very angry, will terrify a good many Conservative Members with small majorities into abstaining from some crucial division, probably on the number of representatives to be given to the ratepayers. The Nonconformist agitators may not, say the managers, have as strong a religious hold as they themselves think ; but they are zealous and unwearied agents, and each of them will secure at least some votes. The Radicals know that largo classes in the boroughs are suffering under the burden of rates, which is much more felt, than the burden of taxation, and that they will protest against any measure, however good, which increases their compulsory expenditure. They think that the agricultural labourers, so often disappointed, will bo eager for change as change. and they trust a good deal to that " swing of the pendulum " which is often assumed to govern English party politics. They are confident that the glamour pro- duced by the war is over at, last, and that the cost of the war when studied in cool blood will be found irritating. They see hope in the disappearance of Lord Salisbury from politics, because his great figure, though lie kept in the background. was always impressive. and in the failure of Mr. Balfour to present himself before a people which does not fully comprehend him with a new, younger, and more strikingly efficient Cabinet. Above all, they calculate on the disappearance of the Irish Members from among the supporters of the Bill. Ireland, they say—for they never admit, even to themselves, that there are two Irelands—is so irritated by the " pro- clamation " of different districts that Mr Redmond may venture to refuse support to a Bill which his Church approves, or may even oppose it directly, in which case he might reinforce his opponents by more than a hundred votes. That. would, at all events, it is argued, show the Americans the might of the Irish vote in English politics. and give new heart to the Irish peasantry in their standing demand for the compulsory sale of cultivated Ireland, a demand which, under Mr. T. W. Russell's untiring efforts, is felt even within tho Pale. Putting all these beliefs together, and assigning to each a strength that varies according to personal idiosyncrasy, the ruling Radicals calculate that the Education Bill, if carried at all, will be carried with such difficulty, and by so small a majority, that Mr. Balfour must either disappear, or seek among a reluctant people for strength sufficient to go on.
It is a clever calculation, and on one or two points a reasonable one, while it is evident from Lord London- derry's speech to the Primrose League that it has pro- duced a certain impression even upon the Cabinet. But it will not, we think, prove accurate. As regards the views of the electors. it rests upon the old illusion which has betrayed so many statesmen and parties, that the noisy party is the numerous party, that the action of Behemoth can be foretold from the buzz of the flies that settle on his skin. It. never can be foretold, for Behemoth until he charges is always dumb. We question ourselves if the masses, irrespective of party, do consider that the war is over, or are in the least prepared as yet to hand over its results to men who they think might throw many of them away. They have not forgotten South Africa yet, and with respect to South Af rica they regard the Radicals with an invincible, sometimes even, we are free to admit, with an unjust, distrust. If they do not worship Mr. Balfour as they for a time worshipped Mr. Gladstone, and in a less degree Lord Salisbury, neither do they worship the Opposi- tion. which they see to be both feeble and disunited. Lord Rosebery can produce a thin mirage when he exerts him- self ; but it. soon vanishes, and it is not on the people but on groups that his permanent influence tells. It is not, however, the people who in the first instance have to pro- nounce a verdict, but their representatives, and we shall probably see when Parliament meets, as so often before, that the atmosphere of the House of Commons disperses political mists. Many Conservative Members have been worried during the Recess by the apparent vehemence of the attack, but we question if many, when it comes to the point, will risk the displeasure of the solid block of their supporters in order to conciliate opponents whom they will suspect to be after all irreconcilable. Those of the Non- conformists who are angry will not vote for "Tories," whatever the latter may do or. say. The ratepaying m objection has been partly met, and may be met still further; and as to the Irish, we shall see. They have no Mr. Parnell, and it will take a very strong man indeed, or a very strong emotion, to induce them to vote against " denomi. nationalism," while mere abstention will produce no practical result except upon the figures of divisions. The Radicals will gain nothing from the debating, for Mr. Balfour, once convinced that great questions are on hand, is, with one exception, the most formidable debater in the House, and the exception is not upon the Radical side. For the rest, the great mass of Members behind Mr. Balfour are not prepared to overturn this Government, even if it has become a little tired and stale, in order to replace it by one so little homogeneous as any Liberal Cabinet just now must be ; to give up South Africa to half-hearted supporters of the war ; or to risk the postponement of all efficiency to a wild cry for retrenchment and reform. Nor do they wish just now for the Dissolution which a defeat would inevitably involve. They would prefer to meet their con- stituents two years hence, when Mr. Balfour's courage and strength have been recognised, as they will be, and when two years of steady government have caused most of the irritations of the moment to be forgotten. Nothing will cure the had blood about Africa like South African prosperity, or the anger at the Education Bill like the Education Bill at work, or the disquietude about ex- penditure like a Budget for a time of peace. That the Government will retain its full normal majority we do not expect ; but compensation for any losses may be found in the fuller attendance which conflict will ensure, and over-large majorities do not always make Governments strong. Their power comes first of all from the energy, decision, and clear purpose within them, and all those qualities are enfeebled by the slackness which the absence of effective resistance is apt to breed. We expect a stout. fight, a conclusive victory for the Government, and then a short period of apathy.
It is curious, and a little melancholy, to reflect that amidst all this hubbub the interest felt in education for itself does not increase in proportion to the debating about it. Not even the interest of a political crisis can induce the average Englishman to study the Bill, or to form any but the vaguest opinion upon the innumerable plans for improving education every day submitted to him. He wants, if he belongs to the upper classes, to have his sons as well educated as he himself was, and not upon any faddy method ; and if he does not so belong, he wants his children taught so that they may be able to "get on." In neither class is he exactly sure of the best method to attain his end; and in both he inclines to leave it partly to the professionals and partly to the politicians. In both he desires Christianity to be taught; and in neither does he doubt that it will be taught principally by the atmosphere in which his sons live. It is this state of feeling which makes much of the discussion so unreal, and induces the mass of voters to try any proposal, not by its own merits, but by those of the men who bring forward or defend it. If Bishops opposed the present Bill, Nonconformists would approve it; and if Nonconformists approved it, strong Churchmen would see in it evidence of latent danger and guile.
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