THE POLITICAL EFFECT OF ASSASSINATION.
IT seems probable that the sailor who on Sunday last fired two revolver-shots at the President of the French Republic was one of the many semi-lunatics who think they are the objects of persecution by the State, and appeal there- fore to the mob, or, as they phrase it, "call the attention of the public to their just grievances." He might, how- ever, have been an Anarchist, or an agent of the agitators in the Midi, and in either case his offence reminds us of a new fact in the modern political situation. The rulers of Europe more especially—though those of North and South America are almost equally affected—are greatly influenced by the fear of murder. They know that they are always in danger, and believe that the murderers are generally persons of extremely democratic opinions, or men hostile to the present constitution of society. • This causes a- distrust between rulers and • people which arrests many ameliorations that would be adopted if confidence between classes could be restored, increases the desire for military protection, and diminishes the hope of the masses in the concessions they seek from those above them. We say it is "the rulers" who are shocked out of their self-control because the permanent danger is not felt only by the Kings or Presidents, or even by the leading Ministers who so often require special police protection. Kings and statesmen can more or less guard them- selves ; but their danger affects large groups, and some- times very important and extensive interests. • The murder, for example, of the Czar would affect every member of the bureaucracy, and be regarded as a frightful blow by the whole body of reactionaries in Russia. The murder of the German Emperor or, of- the Emperor of Austria would shake all Europe, disturb all political calculations, and perhaps produce sudden and unexpected wars. Huge parties and great interests would find the world as they had known it crumbling around them. The murder even of President Fallieres, with his limited prerogatives, would open the road to new ambitions, and perhaps provide France with a new master whose international policy would be totally different from that of the present Government. The general effect, in fact, would be equal to that of the Revolutionary Terror, which in the judgment of many of the most thoughtful observers directly arrested the European progress which it seems to other observers to have secured. The rulers of Europe were slowly beginning to understand their peoples when that frightful explosion with its attendant massacres drove the whole of the conservative classes into an attitude of ferocious self-defence. Every great person has a multitude of dependants, or of people who look to him for guidance, and every assassination in such a case disturbs opinion among millions, shakes confidence, and postpones hope. It is felt to be impossible to reason reasonably because of the possibility, the imminent possibility, of bolts from the blue. How are you to calculate when an earthquake may at any moment destroy the data of calculation ? Europe would not be the same place, the same people would not be important, the whole drift of international politics would be different, if the Emperor of Austria, for example, died suddenly, and more especially, because more scenically, if he died through external violence.
The impact made by assassination is all the greater because it is now frequent. We are all accustomed to believe that secret societies exist whose object is either the killing of particular Monarchs, sometimes not very important men—for example, the young King of Spain is probably more threatened than any single person in Europe—or the creation of an excitement which, as they disbelieve in the social organisation, the murderers hope will tend to pulverise it. (A marked instance of the opera- tion of this motive was the unforgivable murder of the Empress of Austria, who had no political position and had done no harm to any one.) But we are apt to forget that these societies produce a mere addition to a danger which has always existed, though not perhaps in its present exaggerated form. The class of lunatics at large being by their disease driven in upon themselves, always consider themselves victims, and by a process of deduction Usually attribute their suffering either to the King or to some important Minister. The regular precautions of the police, the watchfulness, for instance, which it is necessary even in England to maintain, are dictated by fear of "cranks,"—i.e., of half-mad persons who think they have a mission, or a provocation, which has usually no origin except in their own morbidities. This danger, which always exists, and has probably caused many of the great assassinations of history—Ravaillac believed himself to be a special agent of the Virgin—is, of course, increasing with the increase of self-consciousness, and of that modern tendency to watch the great which now fastens so many millions of eyes upon the movements of every Prince. The danger of assassination is therefore really acute, and accounts not only for a certain extravagant nicety of precaution, but for the uneasiness manifested in almost all Courts and among all whose action in the long run depends upon Court guidance. They all learn to detest those whom they suppose to be threatening them, and often to distrust the " causes " in the interest of which the menaces are supposed to be organised. Men who are frightened, or half frightened, cannot think clearly or act with moderation, still less with that lenient sense of superiority which is the first of the good dispositions required of ruling men. The Kings can be protected by being shut up, as we see at Peterhof and in the Vatican ; but the great men cannot be shut up, because that is equivalent with them to disappearance from public life, and they grow bitter from a danger which, even though it does not affect themselves, affects so gravely those on whose support they rely. If assassination were impossible, M. Stolypin would not have sanctioned drumhead Courts- Martial, which are not intended to suppress danger to himself, but to the system which, as he thinks, can be ameliorated only by slow improvements.
The two remedies in which at present any hope can be found are publicity, through which no doubt much hatred is exhaled, and that dispersal of power and responsibility which is involved in every Constit utioual system. There has been, as far as we know, but one attempt in history to assassinate a Parliament, and that failed, and has never been repeated, even in days when the discovery of new and prodigious explosives seems to render it fairly possible. Of course, the ultimate cure must be that softening of national temperament which results from good government protracted through long years. But that will be slow, for it is economic sufferings which now create bitterness among the masses ; and to be rid of economic sufferings the world requires much more wisdom, and it never was so true as now that "Knowledge comes, but Wisdom lingers."
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