Why Mr MacShane should never have stuck it up his junta

FRANK JOHNSON

In between the Venezuelan President's overthrow and return to power last weekend, Mr Denis MacShane, the British Foreign Office minister in charge of our relations with Latin America, wrote an article about him in the Times. He had had the advantage of a meeting with the President, as he then still was, only the previous Monday. So Mr MacShane knew what he was talking about.

His article was headed: 'I saw the calm, irrational Chavez turn into a ranting populist demagogue'. He described how, when they met, 'I felt I was talking to a normal, worldlywise political leader. He sounded positively Thatcherite in his desire to slim down the bloated Venezuelan oil industry, and welcomed the bids by BP and British Gas to bring global expertise to his country's energy sector.' But Mr MacShane also watched 'a bizarre three-hour TV speech'. In it, the President sacked six oil executives and raised the minimum wage by 20 per cent. 'He was dressed in a red paratrooper's beret and rugby shirt, and waved his arms up and down like Mussolini — an odd, disturbing spectacle. The calm, rational Chavez had been replaced by a ranting populist demagogue.'

The day after Mr MacShane's article appeared, Serior Chavez was back as President. At the time of writing, the situation remains confused and therefore uncertain. It is impossible to say how long Mr MacShane will remain in power. True, Venezuelans tend to be cynical about who really runs Britain, They say everything is finally decided by the army. It is true, as one tells one's Venezuelan friends, that in Britain the army handles anything really important, such as the Queen Mother's coffin. But the generals allow the politicians quite a lot of leeway. Mr MacShane's fate will probably be decided by the Prime Minister, Mr Blair, subject to the army's final say.

Certainly, Mr MacShane is fighting to retain power. The day after Senor Chavez's return to the presidency. Mr MacShane said on the Foreign Office website. 'Last week's coup has failed. Any change of government in Venezuela as elsewhere in Latin America and the world should come about by democratic means. In my talks with President Chavez last week he spoke of his admiration for the European model.' This was skilful footwork by Mr MacShane, His future now depends on how his next meeting with President Chavez goes. Mr MacShane is one of the government's cleverest members. Unlike most other Foreign Office ministers who have been given responsibility for relations with Latin America, he speaks Spanish, as well as priding himself on his command of several other languages which he slips in and out of as if the rest of us were as multilingual as he. Mr MacShane is equal to the challenge of that crucial next meeting with the President.

The President: 'I gather you think I'm a ranting, populist demagogue.'

Mr MacShane: 'Quite so, Senor Presidente. That is why you were swept back to power by the acclaim of 11 Popolo.'

The President: '11 Popolo is not the Spanish for "The People": Mr MacShane. `Forgive me, M. le President de la Republique. I meant Das Volk. May I also point out that, in my article, I also wrote that you admired the European model?'

The President: 'Yes, Mussolini.'

Mr MacShane: 'Exactly, just as I wrote. But I am sure that you also admire more recent European models.'

The President: 'Si. si. Senorita Naomi Campbell. When I come to London, could you — how you say — fix me up with her?'

Mr MacShane: I shall do my best, Duce.'

The President: 'You are good hombre. Adios, El Shane.'

Mr MacShane: 'Auf Wiedersehen.'

There is a good chance, then, that the meeting will ensure Mr MacShane's survival in his present office. In any case, he need not feel embarrassed by last weekend's rapidly changing situation in Venezuela. Such reversals of fortune are the essence of politics. Talleyrand said that treason was a matter of dates. In politics, timing is all. Not only do rulers rise and fall by being in the right or wrong place at the right or wrong time. So do those lesser politicians whose own rise and fall depend on that of rulers. History is full of lesser figures who go on to power, or are ruined, by getting it right or wrong at an unpredictable moment.

A certain General Fromm has long fascinated me. He had prior knowledge of the July 1944 plot against Hitler, and acquiesced in it when it looked like being successful. He was in Berlin on the night of the bomb blast at Hitler's East Prussian headquarters, and at first offered to assist in the plotters' takeover of the city. The plotters gathered in Fromm's office. Gradually it dawned on them that Hitler had survived the blast. To save himself. Fromm forced one plotter to shoot himself and had three others shot in the courtyard. But the Gestapo discovered Fromm's earlier role. He was himself executed.

Fromm's fascination lies not in himself — he seems to have been a dullard — but in his type. As one goes through life, one meets or observes many Fromms. But, unlike the Fromm I have just written about, some of them prosper. Many a prominent Venezuelan must have spoken out confidently against Setior Chavez during his two powerless days. Some may be able to cover their tracks now that he is back.

Political parties in less exotic countries are full of Fromms. The Conservative party, once Margaret Thatcher became leader, was full of Heathites who became Thatcherites. Today we can observe the Labour Fromms, who became convinced Blairites, wondering if it is safe to remain so. Perhaps some judicious praise for Mr Brown might come in useful.

I have often wondered what would have happened to certain Conservative politicians if Mrs Thatcher, instead of resigning in 1990, had gone on to contest the second ballot against Michael Heseltine and. as I think she would have, won. In between the two ballots, quite a few of them went around casting doubt on her grip on reality. Would that she had remained prime minister to confront them.

'I gather you think I have a mental problem.'

'I was misquoted, Prime Minister. What I said was that you might have a dental problem.'

'But there's nothing wrong with my teeth.'

'No, but some of your ministers' policies are not biting. They are just not Thatcherite enough.'